Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: nuclear_safety_headline_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Near-term uranium price pressure remains biased upward as policy/industry narratives reinforce nuclear buildout, advanced reactor deployment, and energy-security framing. |
68 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Supply tightness / deficit framing continues to underpin bullish uranium sentiment (utilities contracting + producer/supply-chain constraints narrative). |
72 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Short-horizon uranium sentiment is vulnerable to whipsaw from nuclear-safety and geopolitical headlines, increasing intraday reversal/volatility risk without yet overturning the dominant bullish mass. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260426T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure remains biased upward as policy/industry narratives reinforce nuclear buildout, advanced reactor deployment, and energy-security framing.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Policy + regulatory pro-nuclear signalling (DOE / NRC-related initiatives)",
"Advanced reactor / microreactor deployment narratives (defence + commercial)",
"Broad cross-geo media reinforcement of nuclear revival / energy security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Safety / incident headline risk raising demand-side uncertainty"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply tightness / deficit framing continues to underpin bullish uranium sentiment (utilities contracting + producer/supply-chain constraints narrative).",
"probability_pct": 72,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply deficit / tightness narrative (producer + market commentary)",
"Geopolitical supply-chain risk salience (enrichment / sanctions / shipping risk themes)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential demand shock from nuclear safety events / regulatory backlash"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon uranium sentiment is vulnerable to whipsaw from nuclear-safety and geopolitical headlines, increasing intraday reversal/volatility risk without yet overturning the dominant bullish mass.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Nuclear safety incident / containment-breach headline risk",
"Geopolitical negotiation / sanctions/enrichment-related) with fast newsflow"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad pro-nuclear policy + buildout narratives remain dominant and fresh"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 83,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 8,
"B": 7,
"C": 4,
"D": 193,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 18,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 40,
"stale_24_72h_est": 70,
"stale_over_72h_est": 74
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "nuclear_safety_headline_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Presence of negative nuclear safety/incident narratives within the same 24h window can temporarily compress demand expectations and raise volatility."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_enrichment_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Fast-moving negotiation/sanctions/enrichment headlines can create short-horizon sentiment inflections."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but the aggregated authority-tier mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources; confirmation exists but is not dominant."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with conviction_score_0_100 >= 70 and no late-breaking invalidation."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh safety/geopolitical counter-signals increase contradiction_ratio materially (e.g., >0.30) and directional_score_signed falls below +20."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If intraday buckets show rapid sign-flips (bullish->neutral/bearish) with rising fragility (>=70)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If data sparsity occurs (fresh_evidence_count collapses) or kill-switch is triggered."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -30,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 48,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 20,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"target_market_code resolved explicitly from flight_plan.",
"No explicit prior market_state provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Timeseries derived conservatively from available per-signal recency/heat/velocity hints; bucket-level evidence counts are estimates (no full per-record timestamp list provided to 6B)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}