Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: nuclear_safety_headline_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Near-term uranium price pressure remains biased upward as policy/industry narratives reinforce nuclear buildout, advanced reactor deployment, and energy-security framing. 68 up accelerating 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-002 Supply tightness / deficit framing continues to underpin bullish uranium sentiment (utilities contracting + producer/supply-chain constraints narrative). 72 up stable 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-003 Short-horizon uranium sentiment is vulnerable to whipsaw from nuclear-safety and geopolitical headlines, increasing intraday reversal/volatility risk without yet overturning the dominant bullish mass. 57 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260426T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium price pressure remains biased upward as policy/industry narratives reinforce nuclear buildout, advanced reactor deployment, and energy-security framing.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Policy + regulatory pro-nuclear signalling (DOE / NRC-related initiatives)",
 "Advanced reactor / microreactor deployment narratives (defence + commercial)",
 "Broad cross-geo media reinforcement of nuclear revival / energy security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Safety / incident headline risk raising demand-side uncertainty"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply tightness / deficit framing continues to underpin bullish uranium sentiment (utilities contracting + producer/supply-chain constraints narrative).",
 "probability_pct": 72,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply deficit / tightness narrative (producer + market commentary)",
 "Geopolitical supply-chain risk salience (enrichment / sanctions / shipping risk themes)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential demand shock from nuclear safety events / regulatory backlash"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon uranium sentiment is vulnerable to whipsaw from nuclear-safety and geopolitical headlines, increasing intraday reversal/volatility risk without yet overturning the dominant bullish mass.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Nuclear safety incident / containment-breach headline risk",
 "Geopolitical negotiation / sanctions/enrichment-related) with fast newsflow"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad pro-nuclear policy + buildout narratives remain dominant and fresh"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 83,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 8,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 193,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 40,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 70,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 74
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "nuclear_safety_headline_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Presence of negative nuclear safety/incident narratives within the same 24h window can temporarily compress demand expectations and raise volatility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_enrichment_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Fast-moving negotiation/sanctions/enrichment headlines can create short-horizon sentiment inflections."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but the aggregated authority-tier mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources; confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with conviction_score_0_100 >= 70 and no late-breaking invalidation."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh safety/geopolitical counter-signals increase contradiction_ratio materially (e.g., >0.30) and directional_score_signed falls below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If intraday buckets show rapid sign-flips (bullish->neutral/bearish) with rising fragility (>=70)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If data sparsity occurs (fresh_evidence_count collapses) or kill-switch is triggered."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "acceleration_score": 4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -30,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 48,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 20,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "target_market_code resolved explicitly from flight_plan.",
 "No explicit prior market_state provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Timeseries derived conservatively from available per-signal recency/heat/velocity hints; bucket-level evidence counts are estimates (no full per-record timestamp list provided to 6B)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}