• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_background (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium sentiment skews upward as forward reactor build-out / advanced reactor deployment narratives (defence microreactors, tech-led nuclear build momentum, licensing facilitation) reinforce medium-term demand expectations. 66% up accelerating 24h false 46
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to headline-driven nuclear safety / incident narratives that can temporarily depress pro-nuclear positioning and increase two-way volatility. 41% down stable 6h false 46
uranium B-UR-003 Supply-deficit / contracting tightness framing remains a supportive background tailwind, but is not the sole driver of the latest 6–24h sentiment impulse. 57% up stable 24h false 46
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-20260426T150500Z-uranium-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium sentiment skews upward as forward reactor build-out / advanced reactor deployment narratives (defence microreactors, tech-led nuclear build momentum, licensing facilitation) reinforce medium-term demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to headline-driven nuclear safety / incident narratives that can temporarily depress pro-nuclear positioning and increase two-way volatility.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-deficit / contracting tightness framing remains a supportive background tailwind, but is not the sole driver of the latest 6\u201324h sentiment impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 8,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 220,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 18,
 "fresh_6_24h": 44,
 "stale_24_72h": 32,
 "stale_gt_72h": 14
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_background",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Coexisting positive demand/build narratives and negative safety/incident narratives create two-way headline sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of marginal sources are lower-tier; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_volatility_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Short-horizon reversals are possible if safety/geopolitical headlines accelerate faster than demand-support headlines."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh pro-nuclear policy / contracting / build-out confirmations persist without a simultaneous spike in safety-incident headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent high-trust fresh records within 2h reinforce an opposing safety/policy shock narrative."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises while fresh evidence count increases on both sides (demand vs safety/geopolitics)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Evidence flow drops below the minimum threshold or becomes dominated by stale items for >72h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
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 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -9,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 39,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 30,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: uranium.",
 "No explicit per-trend v2 physics fields provided; used available freshness proxies (newest timestamps, temporal_profile) and authority tier mixes from evidence bundles.",
 "Counterevidence recognised primarily from negative nuclear safety/incident narratives; not sufficient to trigger late-breaking kill-switch under the 2h/independent-confirmation rule."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}