- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_background (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Uranium sentiment skews upward as forward reactor build-out / advanced reactor deployment narratives (defence microreactors, tech-led nuclear build momentum, licensing facilitation) reinforce medium-term demand expectations. |
66% |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to headline-driven nuclear safety / incident narratives that can temporarily depress pro-nuclear positioning and increase two-way volatility. |
41% |
down |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
| uranium |
B-UR-003 |
Supply-deficit / contracting tightness framing remains a supportive background tailwind, but is not the sole driver of the latest 6–24h sentiment impulse. |
57% |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-20260426T150500Z-uranium-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Uranium sentiment skews upward as forward reactor build-out / advanced reactor deployment narratives (defence microreactors, tech-led nuclear build momentum, licensing facilitation) reinforce medium-term demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is vulnerable to headline-driven nuclear safety / incident narratives that can temporarily depress pro-nuclear positioning and increase two-way volatility.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-deficit / contracting tightness framing remains a supportive background tailwind, but is not the sole driver of the latest 6\u201324h sentiment impulse.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 8,
"B": 11,
"C": 6,
"D": 220,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 18,
"fresh_6_24h": 44,
"stale_24_72h": 32,
"stale_gt_72h": 14
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_background",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Coexisting positive demand/build narratives and negative safety/incident narratives create two-way headline sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of marginal sources are lower-tier; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "headline_volatility_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Short-horizon reversals are possible if safety/geopolitical headlines accelerate faster than demand-support headlines."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh pro-nuclear policy / contracting / build-out confirmations persist without a simultaneous spike in safety-incident headlines."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent high-trust fresh records within 2h reinforce an opposing safety/policy shock narrative."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises while fresh evidence count increases on both sides (demand vs safety/geopolitics)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Evidence flow drops below the minimum threshold or becomes dominated by stale items for >72h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -9,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 39,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -28,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 30,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: uranium.",
"No explicit per-trend v2 physics fields provided; used available freshness proxies (newest timestamps, temporal_profile) and authority tier mixes from evidence bundles.",
"Counterevidence recognised primarily from negative nuclear safety/incident narratives; not sufficient to trigger late-breaking kill-switch under the 2h/independent-confirmation rule."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}