Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-geo-lng
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T14:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B1 | Over the next 6h, elevated Middle East conflict risk and shipping-route disruption risk will keep LNG supply-risk premium elevated, biasing natural gas futures upward. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B2 | Over the next 24h, European gas storage-target risk signals will support European LNG pull expectations, adding supportive spillover tone for natural gas futures. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B3 | Over the next 24h, demand softness signals (gas-to-coal switching in parts of Asia) will partially offset bullish LNG-risk narratives, limiting upside follow-through. | 42 | down | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-04-26T14:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T14:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, elevated Middle East conflict risk and shipping-route disruption risk will keep LNG supply-risk premium elevated, biasing natural gas futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG shipping disruption / geopolitical risk premium (Hormuz-related narratives)",
"Supply-growth downgrade / tighter forward supply expectations (IEA-linked LNG outlook signals)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, European gas storage-target risk signals will support European LNG pull expectations, adding supportive spillover tone for natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EU storage adequacy / compliance risk (ACER-linked storage target risk signals)",
"Incremental LNG demand expectations (storage-driven)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, demand softness signals (gas-to-coal switching in parts of Asia) will partially offset bullish LNG-risk narratives, limiting upside follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Demand destruction / fuel switching (Pakistan gas-to-coal switching signal)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 13,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 192,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h_est": 18,
"mid_24_72h_est": 7,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-geo-lng",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction is heavily influenced by geopolitics/LNG-shipping narratives that can de-risk quickly; limited direct weather/storage prints present in admitted set."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-indirect-basis",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal set is stronger on global LNG/geopolitical drivers than on direct Henry Hub storage/weather fundamentals; basis risk to US gas futures remains."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-low-contradictions-observed",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "contradiction_spike_watch",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Contradictions are under-represented in the admitted corpus; monitor for fresh opposing evidence that could raise reversal risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with continued fresh LNG disruption/storage-tightness signals and no material fresh counterevidence cluster."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any escalation/de-escalation headline cluster in the last 2h materially shifts LNG disruption probability (risk-premium compression/expansion)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) signals indicate de-escalation / restored shipping normalisation alongside demand-weakness confirmation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20, +20) as bullish LNG-risk premium fades and demand-softness signals dominate."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
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"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Admitted signals primarily relate to LNG flows, EU storage adequacy, and geopolitics; direct weather/storage print signals were not present in the admitted set.",
"No prior market state provided; state_change set as new_bullish using neutral baseline fallback.",
"Timeseries bucket evidence counts are conservative estimates derived from available trend/risk timestamps in the provided payload (full per-record timestamp stream not present to workflow 6B).",
"Unmapped/irrelevant items were not force-mapped to natural_gas (e.g., broader NATO/Russia security narratives without clear gas linkage)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}