1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26 06:19 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B-NG-1 | Over the next 6–24h, natural gas futures retain an upward price bias as LNG-related supply disruption risk and constrained international gas flows remain the dominant narrative driver. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 57 | | natural_gas | B-NG-2 | Within 24h, there is a meaningful risk that the upside impulse fades (range/partial retrace) if supply-mitigation headlines dominate and no incremental disruption confirmation arrives. | 41 | down | stable | 24h | false | 57 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260426T061959Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:19:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, natural gas futures retain an upward price bias as LNG-related supply disruption risk and constrained international gas flows remain the dominant narrative driver.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply growth outlook reduction / perceived tightening",
 "Strait-of-Hormuz shipping disruption risk premium affecting LNG flows",
 "European gas-flow constraints headlines (Nord Stream / EU actions)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Mitigation narratives: US LNG exports offsetting or redirecting flows",
 "De-escalation / reopening-of-shipping-lanes headlines reducing risk premium"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Within 24h, there is a meaningful risk that the upside impulse fades (range/partial retrace) if supply-mitigation headlines dominate and no incremental disruption confirmation arrives.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US LNG offset/redirect narratives dampening perceived scarcity",
 "Headline fatigue after a spike; risk premium compression"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh escalation or confirmed physical disruption to LNG / shipping",
 "Additional Europe gas-flow restriction headlines"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-1",
 "B-NG-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 5,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 44,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "geopolitical_headline_dependency",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional bias is driven primarily by Middle East / shipping-risk narratives rather than direct US weather/storage/production datapoints in the admitted set."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "counterevidence_present",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply-mitigation narrative (eg, US LNG offsetting/redirecting flows) reduces one-way conviction and increases reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Broad evidence count but authority mix is skewed towards lower-tier sources across admitted items; treat as more fragile if headlines reverse."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Fast-moving conflict/shipping narratives can compress risk premium quickly; monitor for late-breaking de-escalation/invalidation."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "fundamental_data_gap",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "No explicit admitted signals on US storage print, near-term weather demand, or domestic production outages in this cycle."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) confirmation of LNG/shipping disruption risk or Europe gas-flow tightening headlines without offsetting mitigation."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation / shipping-lane reopening / credible supply-offset confirmation emerges, coincident with rising contradiction in the last 2\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Headline cadence remains high (conflict/shipping) with mixed mitigation signals; expect rapid sentiment swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional evidence density drops (few fresh updates) while counterevidence persists, reducing conviction below threshold."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 27,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 26,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 31,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 32,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 33,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 29,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 25,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 23,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 24,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 26,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 28,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 31,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 30,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 26,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 24,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas; single-market constraints applied.",
 "Admitted signal set is geopolitics/LNG-flow heavy; limited direct storage/weather/production signals present.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by mitigation/counter-narratives rather than formal contradiction records.",
 "Timeseries is a conservative proxy derived from trend-level recency/temporal profiles (not full per-record timestamp allocation)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}