- Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-04-26 06:19 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---|---|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B-NG-1 | Over the next 6–24h, natural gas futures retain an upward price bias as LNG-related supply disruption risk and constrained international gas flows remain the dominant narrative driver. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 57 | | natural_gas | B-NG-2 | Within 24h, there is a meaningful risk that the upside impulse fades (range/partial retrace) if supply-mitigation headlines dominate and no incremental disruption confirmation arrives. | 41 | down | stable | 24h | false | 57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260426T061959Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:19:59Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, natural gas futures retain an upward price bias as LNG-related supply disruption risk and constrained international gas flows remain the dominant narrative driver.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply growth outlook reduction / perceived tightening",
"Strait-of-Hormuz shipping disruption risk premium affecting LNG flows",
"European gas-flow constraints headlines (Nord Stream / EU actions)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Mitigation narratives: US LNG exports offsetting or redirecting flows",
"De-escalation / reopening-of-shipping-lanes headlines reducing risk premium"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Within 24h, there is a meaningful risk that the upside impulse fades (range/partial retrace) if supply-mitigation headlines dominate and no incremental disruption confirmation arrives.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US LNG offset/redirect narratives dampening perceived scarcity",
"Headline fatigue after a spike; risk premium compression"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh escalation or confirmed physical disruption to LNG / shipping",
"Additional Europe gas-flow restriction headlines"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-1",
"B-NG-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 5,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 44,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 5,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "geopolitical_headline_dependency",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is driven primarily by Middle East / shipping-risk narratives rather than direct US weather/storage/production datapoints in the admitted set."
},
{
"risk_flag": "counterevidence_present",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply-mitigation narrative (eg, US LNG offsetting/redirecting flows) reduces one-way conviction and increases reversal risk."
},
{
"risk_flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Broad evidence count but authority mix is skewed towards lower-tier sources across admitted items; treat as more fragile if headlines reverse."
},
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Fast-moving conflict/shipping narratives can compress risk premium quickly; monitor for late-breaking de-escalation/invalidation."
},
{
"risk_flag": "fundamental_data_gap",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "No explicit admitted signals on US storage print, near-term weather demand, or domestic production outages in this cycle."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh (<=6h) confirmation of LNG/shipping disruption risk or Europe gas-flow tightening headlines without offsetting mitigation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh de-escalation / shipping-lane reopening / credible supply-offset confirmation emerges, coincident with rising contradiction in the last 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Headline cadence remains high (conflict/shipping) with mixed mitigation signals; expect rapid sentiment swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional evidence density drops (few fresh updates) while counterevidence persists, reducing conviction below threshold."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 27,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 26,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 31,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 32,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 33,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 29,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 25,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 23,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 24,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 26,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 28,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 31,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 30,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 26,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 24,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas; single-market constraints applied.",
"Admitted signal set is geopolitics/LNG-flow heavy; limited direct storage/weather/production signals present.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is driven by mitigation/counter-narratives rather than formal contradiction records.",
"Timeseries is a conservative proxy derived from trend-level recency/temporal profiles (not full per-record timestamp allocation)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}