Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier_dominance
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26T07:02:40Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term lithium sentiment skews upward as the corpus emphasises lithium hydroxide pricing premia and continued downstream supply-chain investment signals (refining and procurement focus). 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
lithium B-LI-002 Over the next 6 hours, lithium sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but vulnerable to headline whipsaw because much of the evidence mass is non-price, narrative-driven, and skewed to lower-tier sources despite some Tier-A anchors. 57 up stable 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260426T070240Z-lithium-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T07:02:40Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium sentiment skews upward as the corpus emphasises lithium hydroxide pricing premia and continued downstream supply-chain investment signals (refining and procurement focus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium hydroxide premium / tightness narrative",
 "refining / supply-chain investment focus",
 "broad EV/battery ecosystem demand backdrop (indirect)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "EV adoption drag / funding-policy frictions (indirect, not lithium-specific in admitted set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but vulnerable to headline whipsaw because much of the evidence mass is non-price, narrative-driven, and skewed to lower-tier sources despite some Tier-A anchors.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "fresh late-cycle reinforcement (last few hours)",
 "continued discussion of refinery/investment pipeline"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "thin direct commodity-specific counter-evidence (so reversal would be news-driven rather than evidence-driven in current set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 5,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 88,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.64,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.36,
 "stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_dominance",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad but source authority is heavily skewed to Tier D; conviction is therefore moderately fragile under a narrative-driven catalyst set."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "indirect_driver_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Several high-heat signals are EV/ecosystem items that support lithium only indirectly; commodity-specific evidence concentration is narrower than total corpus heat suggests."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) lithium-specific reinforcement persists without meaningful counterevidence (2+ independent opposing items), maintain a bullish watch posture.",
 "action": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster emerges (>=2 independent items within 2h) tied to lithium supply/demand fundamentals or policy shocks, treat as reversal risk escalation.",
 "action": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming signals remain predominantly indirect (EV narrative only) with no additional lithium-specific evidence, expect mixed/range behaviour risk to rise.",
 "action": "volatility_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 2,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'lithium'; analysis constrained to single-market scope.",
 "Trend admission prioritised lithium-explicit items (hydroxide premium / refining-investment signals). High-heat EV ecosystem items were treated as indirect context and not force-mapped.",
 "No explicit contradictions were present in the admitted lithium-mapped set; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative, derived from available signal timestamps/recency proxies rather than per-record physics (not provided in input)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}