Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier_dominance
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T07:02:40Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium sentiment skews upward as the corpus emphasises lithium hydroxide pricing premia and continued downstream supply-chain investment signals (refining and procurement focus). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Over the next 6 hours, lithium sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but vulnerable to headline whipsaw because much of the evidence mass is non-price, narrative-driven, and skewed to lower-tier sources despite some Tier-A anchors. | 57 | up | stable | 6h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260426T070240Z-lithium-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T07:02:40Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium sentiment skews upward as the corpus emphasises lithium hydroxide pricing premia and continued downstream supply-chain investment signals (refining and procurement focus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lithium hydroxide premium / tightness narrative",
"refining / supply-chain investment focus",
"broad EV/battery ecosystem demand backdrop (indirect)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"EV adoption drag / funding-policy frictions (indirect, not lithium-specific in admitted set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium sentiment is likely to remain mildly positive but vulnerable to headline whipsaw because much of the evidence mass is non-price, narrative-driven, and skewed to lower-tier sources despite some Tier-A anchors.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"fresh late-cycle reinforcement (last few hours)",
"continued discussion of refinery/investment pipeline"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"thin direct commodity-specific counter-evidence (so reversal would be news-driven rather than evidence-driven in current set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 5,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 88,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_1": 0.64,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_1": 0.36,
"stale_gt_24h_share_0_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_dominance",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad but source authority is heavily skewed to Tier D; conviction is therefore moderately fragile under a narrative-driven catalyst set."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "indirect_driver_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Several high-heat signals are EV/ecosystem items that support lithium only indirectly; commodity-specific evidence concentration is narrower than total corpus heat suggests."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) lithium-specific reinforcement persists without meaningful counterevidence (2+ independent opposing items), maintain a bullish watch posture.",
"action": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster emerges (>=2 independent items within 2h) tied to lithium supply/demand fundamentals or policy shocks, treat as reversal risk escalation.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming signals remain predominantly indirect (EV narrative only) with no additional lithium-specific evidence, expect mixed/range behaviour risk to rise.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 2,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'lithium'; analysis constrained to single-market scope.",
"Trend admission prioritised lithium-explicit items (hydroxide premium / refining-investment signals). High-heat EV ecosystem items were treated as indirect context and not force-mapped.",
"No explicit contradictions were present in the admitted lithium-mapped set; reversal sentinel not triggered.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative, derived from available signal timestamps/recency proxies rather than per-record physics (not provided in input)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}