- Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 0
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:| (No beliefs present)
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"note": "No gold-mapped evidence inside the last 72h window; most candidate gold-linked signals are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Gold-adjacent VIP items exist but are single-source and >72h old; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Given weak fresh signal density, any new macro/geopolitical update could rapidly flip the state from neutral."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat while freshness_confidence=low and conviction_score_0_100<45 (insufficient fresh directional mass)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if any new Tier-A macro catalyst arrives (USD/real-rates/central-bank flows) within the next 6h bucket."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear in 2+ independent sources, triggering the late-breaking invalidation sentinel."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as gold; scope constrained to single_market.",
"No trend objects contained clear gold alias mapping; left unmapped (not force-mapped).",
"Gold-adjacent items exist mostly as VIP singletons (e.g., gold trade disruption / GLD-related) dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; treated as stale (>72h).",
"With no fresh (0-72h) gold-mapped evidence, direction is suppressed to neutral_mixed and momentum marked weakening due to stale suppression + data sparsity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}