Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-26 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-01 |
Coffee futures have an upward (price-supportive) bias over the next 24h as supply-side risk narratives (crop disease / plant health, labour constraints, and logistics disruptions) dominate... |
62 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-02 |
Over the next 6h, directional bias remains mildly upward but is prone to rangebound chop because most supporting narratives are not in the 0–6h freshness window. |
55 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
52 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-03 |
Downside/capping pressure risk exists over 24h if harvest-volume/price-reduction narratives broaden (improved supply perceptions), limiting follow-through on the bullish supply-risk thesis. |
40 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "wf6B_coffee_2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have an upward (price-supportive) bias over the next 24h as supply-side risk narratives (crop disease / plant health, labour constraints, and logistics disruptions) dominate the admitted signal set.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop_conditions_disease",
"weather_disruptions",
"labour_costs",
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, directional bias remains mildly upward but is prone to rangebound chop because most supporting narratives are not in the 0\u20136h freshness window.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Downside/capping pressure risk exists over 24h if harvest-volume/price-reduction narratives broaden (improved supply perceptions), limiting follow-through on the bullish supply-risk thesis.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 4,
"C": 3,
"D": 120,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"window_0_6h_count": 0,
"window_6_24h_count": 4,
"window_24_72h_count": 22,
"window_gt_72h_count": 60
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Directional thesis is supported by broad narratives, but most evidence is outside the 0\u20136h window; momentum therefore treated as weakening."
},
{
"risk_flag": "counterevidence_present",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Admitted stream includes harvest/price-reduction framing that can cap or reverse bullish follow-through if it broadens."
},
{
"risk_flag": "price_link_indirectness",
"market": "coffee",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Many admitted items are driver narratives (supply chain, labour, plant health, retail demand) rather than explicit futures-market price confirmation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (0\u20136h) independent supply-disruption confirmations or explicit market-price validation appears without a matching rise in harvest-improvement counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Multiple independent new items within <=24h reinforce harvest-volume/price-reduction framing or other supply-easing signals, raising counterevidence mass."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially versus current baseline while freshness remains low, indicating narrative whipsaw risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided; counterevidence handled via admitted price-reduction/harvest-volume framing signals.",
"No <=2h opposing signals detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered.",
"Signal timeseries uses available timestamp proxies (newest-published markers) rather than full per-record timestamp reconstruction; bucket values are conservative and intended for shape/inflection testing, not precision."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}