Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T00:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B_coffee_001 | Near-term upside pressure on coffee futures is supported by fresh supply-chain / regulatory-constraint narratives and ongoing origin/supply risk themes. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 56 |
| coffee | B_coffee_002 | Over the next 24 hours, the dominant narrative set remains skewed toward constrained supply / higher cost-to-serve dynamics, keeping the bias upward unless harvest/relief headlines broaden. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
| coffee | B_coffee_003 | Downside/capping pressure risk exists if harvest-volume/availability narratives (and related retail price reductions) re-dominate the next cycle. | 35 | down | fading | 24h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B_coffee_001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term upside pressure on coffee futures is supported by fresh supply-chain / regulatory-constraint narratives and ongoing origin/supply risk themes.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight: logistics disruption / shipping delays narrative remains active", "origin_supply: export/flow friction and constraints", "crop_conditions_disease: plant health / disease-risk backdrop", "regulatory/pricing: decaf/processing constraint narratives (proxy for broader coffee tightness)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B_coffee_003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B_coffee_002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the dominant narrative set remains skewed toward constrained supply / higher cost-to-serve dynamics, keeping the bias upward unless harvest/relief headlines broaden.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "labour_costs: labour shortage / enforcement narratives", "shipping_freight: persistent logistics friction", "origin_supply: export market condition uncertainty", "weather_disruptions / crop risk: slow-burn risk premium" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B_coffee_003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B_coffee_003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Downside/capping pressure risk exists if harvest-volume/availability narratives (and related retail price reductions) re-dominate the next cycle.", "probability_pct": 35, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply: harvest/availability relief narrative (stale but present)", "pricing: downstream price-reduction signal (proxy for easing tightness)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B_coffee_001", "B_coffee_002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B_coffee_001", "B_coffee_002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 45, "B": 6, "C": 1, "D": 150, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_evidence": 2, "fresh_6_24h_evidence": 0, "stale_24_72h_evidence": 6, "stale_over_72h_evidence": 20, "notes": "Freshness mix is approximated from per-trend recency proxies and sampled record timestamps; full per-record timestamp distribution was not provided to 6B." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "description": "A meaningful share of admitted narratives are >72h old; they still shape background bias but can be overtaken quickly by new crop/harvest or logistics updates." }, { "flag_id": "counterevidence_present", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "description": "A (mostly stale) availability/harvest-relief narrative exists and can re-assert, increasing reversal risk if it becomes fresh and multi-sourced." }, { "flag_id": "mapping_proxy_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "description": "Some signals are downstream/consumer-chain proxies (retail, decaf processing constraints) rather than direct futures fundamentals; treated as secondary drivers." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) multi-source updates reinforce supply tightness/logistics disruption without simultaneous harvest-relief counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh signals (<=24h) emphasise harvest availability, easing freight constraints, or broad price-reduction/relief narratives." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If both supply-tightness and harvest-relief narratives print within the same 6h window (contradiction rises materially)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": 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"bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 23, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -30, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 23, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "target_scope: explicit coffee", "prior_state: unknown_prior (no trend_state_memory provided) => state_change set to 'unchanged' by fallback", "counterevidence: harvest/price-reduction narrative present but materially older than the freshest tightness/constraint signals", "late_breaking_invalidation_sentinel: not triggered (no <=2h opposing cluster detected)" ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }