- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-26T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-001 |
Near-term crude oil risk premium remains elevated as Middle East shipping/sanctions enforcement narratives concentrate around disruption risk (e.g., Hormuz / interdictions / blockade framing). |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-002 |
Over 24h, the bullish impulse is vulnerable to fast narrative reversals (de-escalation / reopening / alternative flows), keeping reversal risk above baseline despite broad headline mass. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-crude_oil-2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude oil risk premium remains elevated as Middle East shipping/sanctions enforcement narratives concentrate around disruption risk (e.g., Hormuz / interdictions / blockade framing).",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"sanctions_enforcement",
"maritime_security_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"supply_rerouting_and_substitution_narratives (e.g., diversified sourcing / offsets)",
"demand_destruction_risk (recession / inflation shock framing)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over 24h, the bullish impulse is vulnerable to fast narrative reversals (de-escalation / reopening / alternative flows), keeping reversal risk above baseline despite broad headline mass.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"macro_demand",
"inventory_storage (implicit via price-spike/recession discourse)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"continued escalation / sustained disruption confirmation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"regime_state": "tightening",
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 30,
"B": 14,
"C": 2,
"D": 217,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 120,
"fresh_6_24h": 143,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 52,
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 30,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": [
"Counter-pressure is primarily mitigating/offset narratives and demand-destruction framing rather than fresh, direct de-escalation confirmation."
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical headlines are high-velocity and can reverse quickly; conviction is materially exposed to de-escalation/route-normalisation updates."
},
{
"flag": "macro_demand_counterpressure",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Recession/inflation concern narratives act as partial counterweight (demand-destruction risk), raising reversal risk versus a pure supply-shock tape."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_amplification",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting propagation is low-tier; authority confirmation is present yet not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_timeseries_buckets",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Pre-event hours in the 24h lookback are sparse in the admitted set; early buckets are conservative neutral with higher fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation of sustained disruption/constraints (additional independent high-tier updates) without parallel de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any credible de-escalation / reopening / disruption invalidation headline(s) in the next 2\u20136 hours, or a visible contradiction spike in fresh evidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Headlines shift from disruption to mitigation (rerouting/substitution/export surge) while macro-demand risk narratives intensify."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if the evidence stream becomes materially contradictory (net directional score returns to within \u00b120) or late-breaking invalidation triggers."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 18,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 26,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 30,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 33,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 36,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 40,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 44,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 48,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 52,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 96,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 57,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 5,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; counter-pressure estimated from mitigating supply/demand narratives inside admitted set."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}