Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant (severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-26 06:36 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CRUDEOIL-001 Near-term Brent is supported by elevated Strait of Hormuz shipping / blockade escalation risk, keeping a risk-premium bid. 68 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B-CRUDEOIL-002 Import diversion, waivers, and substitution narratives reduce the effective supply-shock magnitude, capping upside and raising mean-reversion risk. 46 down stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B-CRUDEOIL-003 Macro-demand downside framing (recession / demand destruction risk if disruption persists) acts as a counterweight that can flip sentiment quickly despite near-term supply-risk support. 40 down fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CRUDE_OIL-20260426T063600Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-26T06:36:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-CRUDEOIL-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term Brent is supported by elevated Strait of Hormuz shipping / blockade escalation risk, keeping a risk-premium bid.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "shipping_security_risk", "naval_blockade_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CRUDEOIL-002", "B-CRUDEOIL-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-CRUDEOIL-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Import diversion, waivers, and substitution narratives (e.g., alternative sourcing) reduce the effective supply-shock magnitude, capping upside and raising mean-reversion risk.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "supply_rerouting", "policy_waivers", "import_substitution" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CRUDEOIL-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-CRUDEOIL-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Macro-demand downside framing (recession / demand destruction risk if disruption persists) acts as a counterweight that can flip sentiment quickly despite near-term supply-risk support.", "probability_pct": 40, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro_demand", "recession_risk", "demand_destruction_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CRUDEOIL-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-CRUDEOIL-001", "B-CRUDEOIL-002", "B-CRUDEOIL-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 9, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 3, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 6, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 6, "stale_over_24h_signals": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "high", "details": "Multiple fresh signals cluster around Hormuz shipping risk / blockade and Iran-US escalation framing; tends to support upside risk-premium but increases whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "counterevidence_present_supply_mitigation", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "details": "Fresh narratives on import diversion/waivers/substitution reduce net supply-shock conviction and raise reversal risk from bullish to mixed." }, { "flag": "macro_demand_counterweight", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "details": "Demand-destruction/recession-risk framing appears alongside supply-risk headlines; this can cap rallies and increase fragility." }, { "flag": "low_tier_tail_heavy", "market": "crude_oil", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad but a large share of amplification appears to come from lower-tier domains; treat incremental updates as higher-noise." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If fresh escalation/shipping-disruption confirmations persist without equally fresh de-escalation or supply-relief hard invalidators." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If headline flow remains dominated by blockade/retaliation language while countervailing supply-mitigation stories remain active." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If demand-destruction / recession framing accelerates or if multiple independent de-escalation / supply-relief signals arrive within a 2\u20136h window." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If signal contradiction rises further and net directional score compresses into neutral for multiple consecutive buckets." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -20, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": -20, "velocity_score": -20, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 35, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 1, "bearish_pressure_score": 3, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 16, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 3, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-26T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-26T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 67, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 67, "velocity_score": 54, "acceleration_score": 49, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 84, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 67, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -20, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 54, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Directional mapping interpreted geopolitics/shipping disruption as bullish (upside risk premium) for crude oil, while import diversion/waiver and demand-destruction narratives were treated as counterevidence.", "No explicit prior state memory was provided to 6B; state_change is emitted as new_bullish (implicit prior assumed neutral).", "Mass/authority/counterevidence (internal): directional_mass\u224882, authority_confirmation\u224858, counterevidence\u224840; reversal_risk elevated to medium due to fresh opposing narratives coexisting with the supply-risk cluster." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }