Commodities Report: Wheat futures | 2026-04-25 03:00 UTC [QZPJ] | Bullish | tightening

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1. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/24/rollins-outlines-usda-response-as-fertilizer-prices-surge-and-farm-margins-tighten/ - USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an urgent multi-agency response to rising fertilizer costs, which have surged 30-50% recently, severely tightening margins for U.S. farmers. Citing global instability and market concentration, Rollins highlighted that 70% of farmers cannot afford needed inputs. The administration is partnering with the Department of Justice to monitor for price gouging, extending Jones Act waivers, and exploring new import channels. Long-term strategies include reshoring manufacturing and leveraging domestic natural gas, though production increases may take 12 to 18 months. Policy debates continue regarding trade measures and market transparency.
2. https://www.rappler.com/business/global-crops-expected-effects-el-nino-middle-east-crisis/ - Forecasts predict the strongest El Niño in a decade will cause hotter, drier weather across Asia in late 2026, threatening grain, oilseed, palm oil, and rice yields. Simultaneously, the Iran war is choking fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating farmer challenges in Australia, India, and Southeast Asia. While the phenomenon may bring excessive rain to the US and Europe, disrupting harvests there, the combined impact of drought in Asia and fertilizer scarcity poses significant risks to global food supplies.
3. https://www.rappler.com/business/global-crops-expected-effects-el-nino-middle-east-crisis/ - Forecasts predict the strongest El Niño in a decade will cause hotter, drier weather across Asia in late 2026, threatening grain, oilseed, palm oil, and rice yields. Simultaneously, the Iran war is choking fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating farmer challenges in Australia, India, and Southeast Asia. While the phenomenon may bring excessive rain to the US and Europe, disrupting harvests there, the combined impact of drought in Asia and fertilizer scarcity poses significant risks to global food supplies.
4. https://www.producer.com/crops/fertilizer-supply-crisis-deepens/ - Turmoil in the Middle East is reviving concerns over fertilizer dependence in key grain export markets. Canada imports significant quantities of fertilizer, relying on the US for phosphate and the US and Middle East for nitrogen. Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing major supply disruptions in the United States and Brazil, which are the world's two largest fertilizer importers. Purdue University analysis indicates Brazil remains in a riskier position due to high import dependence across primary macronutrients. Australia is also heavily dependent on imported fertilizer, with forecasts of significant reductions in wheat, barley, and canola output for the 2026-27 crop season due to reduced urea application.
5. https://schiffgoldprod.wpenginepowered.com/guest-commentaries/wars-economic-fallout-extends-far-beyond-the-pump - Analysis indicates the US-Iran conflict has caused significant disruption to higher-order goods production, including aluminum, helium, plastics, and fertilizers, which transit the Strait of Hormuz. While gas prices have risen, the article argues the true economic damage lies in the destruction of supply chains for industrial and agricultural inputs. This shortage threatens to reduce the availability of consumer goods, medical supplies, and food crops in the coming months, with costs locked in even if a ceasefire is achieved.
6. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-friday-closing-out-week-with-gains-on-weather-fertilizer-concerns/ - Wheat futures closed the week with solid gains driven by improved rain forecasts for the hard red winter region and concerns regarding fertilizer availability for new crop planting. Markets are also monitoring winter wheat development and export trade dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. While the soft red winter crop appears healthy, excessive moisture in the Eastern Midwest poses risks. Additionally, planting delays are forecast for parts of the U.S. Midwest and Plains, and the Canadian Prairies due to winter-type weather.
7. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-friday-closing-out-week-with-gains-on-weather-fertilizer-concerns/ - Wheat futures closed the week with solid gains driven by improved rain forecasts for the hard red winter region and concerns regarding fertilizer availability for new crop planting. Markets are also monitoring winter wheat development and export trade dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. While the soft red winter crop appears healthy, excessive moisture in the Eastern Midwest poses risks. Additionally, planting delays are forecast for parts of the U.S. Midwest and Plains, and the Canadian Prairies due to winter-type weather.
8. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-friday-closing-out-week-with-gains-on-weather-fertilizer-concerns/ - Wheat futures closed the week with solid gains driven by improved rain forecasts for the hard red winter region and concerns regarding fertilizer availability for new crop planting. Markets are also monitoring winter wheat development and export trade dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. While the soft red winter crop appears healthy, excessive moisture in the Eastern Midwest poses risks. Additionally, planting delays are forecast for parts of the U.S. Midwest and Plains, and the Canadian Prairies due to winter-type weather.
9. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/trump-admin-eyes-new-fertilizer-plants-a-fix-to-address-high-fertilizer-costs/ - The Trump administration is developing a plan to increase domestic nitrogen fertilizer production in the United States to reduce reliance on Russia and China. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated the goal is to expedite permitting from years to weeks or months, aiming for new facilities to operate within three years. Short-term measures include countervailing duties and extending the Jones Act waiver. Details are expected soon.
10. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/canadian-agri-food-group-aligns-with-us-ag-coalition-on-usmca/ - Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, expressed support for the US Agricultural Coalition for USMCA. He advocates for a 16-year renewal of the USMCA treaty without significant changes, citing benefits for farmers on both sides of the border. Harvey noted concerns that reopening negotiations could jeopardise Mexico's acceptance of biotech crops, particularly regarding canola. He highlighted the trade imbalance where the US sells significantly more agri-food products to Canada than vice versa. Canada's chief negotiator recently indicated no need to revisit the agreement's fundamentals during the upcoming review.
11. https://www.publico.pt/2026/04/24/azul/noticia/el-nino-afectar-meteorologia-mundo-2026-2027-2172384 - Meteorologists anticipate a strong El Nino phenomenon developing in the second half of 2026, expected to cause higher temperatures and drier conditions across much of Asia, while intensifying rainfall in parts of North and South America. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts a 70% probability of emergence during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Indian authorities warning of below-average monsoon rains. The US Climate Prediction Centre estimates a 61% probability between May and July. Australia faces below-median precipitation in agricultural regions, whereas US agricultural prospects in the Central West are viewed positively. Previous El Nino events have historically caused severe droughts in Australia and Asia, weakened Indian monsoons, and disrupted crop yields globally.
12. https://www.morningagclips.com/oklahoma-wheat-crop-update/ - The Oklahoma Wheat Commission released a crop update highlighting difficult growing conditions for wheat producers in the state. The report notes that dry planting conditions, drought, and heat have impacted the crop, with specific mentions of damage in Cotton County. Despite these challenges, the commission emphasises the resilience of the wheat and the hard work of farm families. The update aims to inform the public about the realities faced by Oklahoma farmers.
13. https://www.morningagclips.com/oklahoma-wheat-crop-update/ - The Oklahoma Wheat Commission released a crop update highlighting difficult growing conditions for wheat producers in the state. The report notes that dry planting conditions, drought, and heat have impacted the crop, with specific mentions of damage in Cotton County. Despite these challenges, the commission emphasises the resilience of the wheat and the hard work of farm families. The update aims to inform the public about the realities faced by Oklahoma farmers.
14. https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/white_house_extends_shipping_waiver_to_august-24-apr-2026-183535-article/?rss=true - The Trump administration has extended a shipping waiver for 90 days until mid-August, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil, fuel, and fertilizer between US ports. This move aims to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran and stabilize energy markets. The exemption temporarily overrides Jones Act restrictions, which normally require US-flagged ships for domestic waterborne trade. While industry advocates support the extension for supply certainty, Jones Act supporters argue it undermines American shipbuilding and maritime security.
15. https://www.heraldonline.co.zw/chinas-sulphuric-acid-export-ban-hormuz-closure-reshaping-global-power/ - On May 1, 2026, China halted sulphuric acid exports while the Strait of Hormuz closure reduced tanker traffic by over 90 percent. This dual shock severely impacts global industrial chemistry, fertiliser production, and battery supply chains in the United States, European Union, and Africa. The event creates a bifurcation of global supply, leading to projected 15-20 percent rises in fertiliser costs and potential shutdowns of critical mining and refining operations. Experts recommend a pivot to organic fertilisers and domestic acid recovery to mitigate the crisis.
16. https://www.freepressjournal.in/bhopal/cm-mohan-yadav-annouces-to-increase-wheat-procurement-slot-booking-in-mp-till-may-9 - Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav announced an extension of wheat procurement slot booking on the Minimum Support Price (MSP) from April 30 to May 9. The procurement period may be extended further based on requirements. Procurement will operate six days a week without holidays. The central government increased the wheat procurement target to 100 lakh metric tonnes from 78 lakh metric tonnes due to record production. The state also introduced MSP and a Rs 600 bonus for Urad crops and included mustard under the Bhavantar scheme. Fertiliser availability remains adequate despite regional conflicts.
17. https://cryptobriefing.com/us-wheat-prices-hit-highest-since-june-2024-amid-drought-hormuz-closure/ - US wheat prices have reached their highest levels since June 2024 due to severe drought in Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado, alongside fertilizer cost spikes resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened global food supply. While wheat prices rise, oil market traders remain skeptical of an immediate spike to $160, expecting supply disruptions to be temporary pending potential ceasefire negotiations.
18. https://cryptobriefing.com/us-wheat-prices-hit-highest-since-june-2024-amid-drought-hormuz-closure/ - US wheat prices have reached their highest levels since June 2024 due to severe drought in Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado, alongside fertilizer cost spikes resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened global food supply. While wheat prices rise, oil market traders remain skeptical of an immediate spike to $160, expecting supply disruptions to be temporary pending potential ceasefire negotiations.
19. https://cryptobriefing.com/us-wheat-prices-hit-highest-since-june-2024-amid-drought-hormuz-closure/ - US wheat prices have reached their highest levels since June 2024 due to severe drought in Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado, alongside fertilizer cost spikes resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These factors have tightened global food supply. While wheat prices rise, oil market traders remain skeptical of an immediate spike to $160, expecting supply disruptions to be temporary pending potential ceasefire negotiations.
20. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-wheat-futs-hit-two-year-high-wall-street-sounds-alarm-over-drought-shock - US hard red winter wheat futures rose to a two-year high, approaching 6% gains for the week, driven by severe drought conditions in the agricultural belt. UBS analysts noted the drought ranks among the worst in over 130 years, with the Palmer Drought Severity Index hitting its highest March level since 1895. Concerns exist regarding reduced crop yields, fertilizer shortages, and elevated diesel prices, which could create inflationary pressure on food supply and supermarket prices.
21. https://www.agweek.com/business/markets/weather-issues-persist-in-the-u-s-while-a-blocked-shipping-lane-roils-markets-around-the-world - Weather conditions and the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closure continue to impact global agriculture and energy markets. Rising crude oil and fertilizer prices, driven by the conflict, weigh on producers. Wheat prices hit contract highs due to drought and war premiums, while delayed planting affects corn and spring wheat. Cattle markets slipped as consumers resist higher beef prices. The situation remains a key concern for the sector.
22. https://www.directoriocubano.info/acontecer/la-crisis-en-iran-amenaza-con-encarecer-los-alimentos-en-varios-paises-vulnerables/ - The ongoing conflict in Iran risks increasing global food prices by disrupting fertilizer and maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz. While current international food prices have risen only slightly, experts warn that costs for production and transport will eventually pass to consumers. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme caution that prolonged tensions could trigger a global food catastrophe, disproportionately affecting low-income importers such as India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt, potentially pushing millions into acute food insecurity.
23. https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/oEMnXj/iea-sjokkboelger-gjennom-energimarkedet - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused unprecedented uncertainty in global gas markets. The conflict has disrupted the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertiliser, and helium, with approximately 20% of global LNG supply currently halted. The IEA estimates a total loss of 120 billion cubic metres of LNG between 2026 and 2030, equivalent to one year of Norwegian offshore production. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have reached their highest levels since the 2022-2023 energy crisis, with volatility hitting record highs. The IEA emphasises the need for diversified energy sources and investments to enhance energy security.
24. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-wheat-futs-hit-two-year-high-wall-street-sounds-alarm-over-drought-shock - US hard red winter wheat futures rose to a two-year high, approaching 6% gains for the week, driven by severe drought conditions in the agricultural belt. UBS analysts noted the drought ranks among the worst in over 130 years, with the Palmer Drought Severity Index hitting its highest March level since 1895. Concerns exist regarding reduced crop yields, fertilizer shortages, and elevated diesel prices, which could create inflationary pressure on food supply and supermarket prices.
25. https://www.agweek.com/business/markets/weather-issues-persist-in-the-u-s-while-a-blocked-shipping-lane-roils-markets-around-the-world - Weather conditions and the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closure continue to impact global agriculture and energy markets. Rising crude oil and fertilizer prices, driven by the conflict, weigh on producers. Wheat prices hit contract highs due to drought and war premiums, while delayed planting affects corn and spring wheat. Cattle markets slipped as consumers resist higher beef prices. The situation remains a key concern for the sector.
26. https://newstalkkit.com/ixp/1144/p/stripe-rust-spreading-rapidly/ - Washington State University reports that stripe rust is spreading rapidly across wheat fields in the Pacific Northwest, with high disease pressure remaining despite fungicide treatments. In Central Ferry, Washington, incidence reached 100% and severity 80% on susceptible varieties. Similar levels were reported in Oregon locations including Mount Vernon, Walla Walla, and Hermiston. The fungus was also found on barley and goat grass. With favorable weather expected, WSU urges growers to monitor fields closely and consider timely fungicide applications.
27. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-wheat-futs-hit-two-year-high-wall-street-sounds-alarm-over-drought-shock - US hard red winter wheat futures rose to a two-year high, approaching 6% gains for the week, driven by severe drought conditions in the agricultural belt. UBS analysts noted the drought ranks among the worst in over 130 years, with the Palmer Drought Severity Index hitting its highest March level since 1895. Concerns exist regarding reduced crop yields, fertilizer shortages, and elevated diesel prices, which could create inflationary pressure on food supply and supermarket prices.
28. https://www.agweek.com/business/markets/weather-issues-persist-in-the-u-s-while-a-blocked-shipping-lane-roils-markets-around-the-world - Weather conditions and the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closure continue to impact global agriculture and energy markets. Rising crude oil and fertilizer prices, driven by the conflict, weigh on producers. Wheat prices hit contract highs due to drought and war premiums, while delayed planting affects corn and spring wheat. Cattle markets slipped as consumers resist higher beef prices. The situation remains a key concern for the sector.
29. https://www.directoriocubano.info/acontecer/la-crisis-en-iran-amenaza-con-encarecer-los-alimentos-en-varios-paises-vulnerables/ - The ongoing conflict in Iran risks increasing global food prices by disrupting fertilizer and maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz. While current international food prices have risen only slightly, experts warn that costs for production and transport will eventually pass to consumers. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme caution that prolonged tensions could trigger a global food catastrophe, disproportionately affecting low-income importers such as India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt, potentially pushing millions into acute food insecurity.
30. https://landline.media/emergency-declared-as-supply-chain-disruptions-hit-farms/ - Montana officials declared a state of emergency to mitigate fertilizer supply chain disruptions caused by global logistical issues, the US-Iran conflict, and driver shortages. The measure suspends hours-of-service requirements and temporary registration rules for commercial vehicles delivering anhydrous ammonia until May 1 to ensure timely planting. Despite these relief measures, elevated fuel prices and ongoing global conflicts are expected to keep diesel costs high, with the Energy Information Administration forecasting a national average of over $5.80 per gallon in April.
31. https://www.agriland.co.uk/farming-news/yara-sees-41-year-on-year-jump-in-q1-earnings-despite-global-fertiliser-shock/ - Norwegian fertiliser producer Yara announced a 41% year-on-year increase in operating profit for Q1 2026, reaching $896 million in EBITDA. Revenue rose to $4.2 billion driven by higher volumes and margins, particularly in Europe and the Americas. CEO Svein Tore Holsether noted strong operational performance despite global food system pressures and geopolitical tensions. While production outputs were 9% below last year due to unplanned outages, the company remains focused on resilience and cost control. Yara faces potential cash outflows of $162 million related to Russian-sanctioned payables and increased gas costs for the second and third quarters.
32. https://www.producer.com/crops/soil-temperature-not-calendar-date-key-to-wheat-seeding-timing/ - Agriculture Canada scientist Brian Beres and researcher Graham Collier suggest Prairie farmers should seed wheat based on soil temperature triggers of 1 to 2 C rather than waiting for specific calendar dates. Research indicates this ultra-early seeding approach improves yield stability by avoiding summer heat stress. Trials across Western Canada show crops established between 2 C and 6 C perform consistently, with success rates of roughly 80%. The method requires no specialized genetics or capital costs, though it demands careful management of frozen soil and moisture availability.
33. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/concerns-mount-as-fertilizer-disruptions-continue/ - Veronica Nigh, chief economist with The Fertilizer Institute, stated during an IFPRI webinar that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused increased fertilizer prices and tighter supplies. While US growers are in a relatively good position for spring pre-purchases, there is significant concern regarding supply building for fall applications. Nigh noted that reopening the strait is unlikely to bring immediate relief due to potential structural damage to global capacity.
34. https://www.producer.com/crops/soil-temperature-not-calendar-date-key-to-wheat-seeding-timing/ - Agriculture Canada scientist Brian Beres and researcher Graham Collier suggest Prairie farmers should seed wheat based on soil temperature triggers of 1 to 2 C rather than waiting for specific calendar dates. Research indicates this ultra-early seeding approach improves yield stability by avoiding summer heat stress. Trials across Western Canada show crops established between 2 C and 6 C perform consistently, with success rates of roughly 80%. The method requires no specialized genetics or capital costs, though it demands careful management of frozen soil and moisture availability.
35. https://sigmaearth.com/india-to-import-record-urea-at-nearly-double-price-amid-hormuz-crisis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=india-to-import-record-urea-at-nearly-double-price-amid-hormuz-crisis - India has procured a record 2.5 million metric tonnes of urea through a single tender at prices nearly double previous rates, ranging from $935 to $959 per tonne. This historic agreement addresses geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to agricultural supply chains. The shipment is scheduled for completion by June 14. The move highlights the impact of regional instability on global fertilizer markets, with India, the world's largest urea importer, securing supplies to ensure domestic agricultural needs are met despite soaring costs and potential global supply restrictions.
36. https://kqennewsradio.com/2026/04/24/governor-declares-drought-drought-emergency-in-six-counties/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=governor-declares-drought-drought-emergency-in-six-counties - Governor Tina Kotek declared a drought emergency in Crook, Grant, Jackson, Jefferson, Morrow and Wallowa counties via Executive Order 26-07 on 24 April 2026. This marks the second declaration in 2026, bringing nine of Oregon's thirty-six counties under emergency status. The NOAA reports 2025-26 as the warmest winter on record, contributing to record-low snowpack. Conditions are expected to impact farms, ranches, water supply, and increase wildfire risk in the near term.
37. https://en.antaranews.com/news/413540/indonesia-sees-fertilizer-surplus-amid-global-shortages - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that Indonesia has secured ample fertilizer supplies and is ready to export due to global output tightening caused by the Middle East conflict. Early subsidy payments of over 20 trillion rupiah eased financing burdens for domestic producers, enabling high output levels. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman noted that India, Australia, the Philippines, and Brazil have sought urea imports. PT Pupuk Indonesia is ready to export 250,000 tons of urea to Australia under a government-to-government scheme while prioritising domestic needs.
38. https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-donald-tusk-eu-mercosur-deal-top-court/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication - Poland plans to challenge the EU-Mercosur trade agreement at the Court of Justice, citing concerns over food security and procedural correctness. Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced the move, with Agriculture Minister Stefan Krajewski preparing the complaint. While the European Parliament previously referred the deal, Poland's action adds political complexity and could delay full ratification by up to two years. The European Commission intends to apply trade provisions from May 1.
39. https://www.croplife.com/management/croplife-retail-week-2026-fertilizer-crisis-iran-conflict-and-epa-cuts/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=croplife-retail-week-2026-fertilizer-crisis-iran-conflict-and-epa-cuts - Jeff Pritchard, CEO of WestLink Ag, discusses challenges facing US growers and retailers in 2026. He notes that fertilizer prices have escalated since 2021, with recent spikes in urea linked to the Iranian conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Pritchard highlights member strategies including shifting to biologicals, stabilizers, and improved application timing to manage costs. He also expresses concern over proposed 54% EPA budget cuts, which could reduce new product approvals and regulatory oversight, potentially impacting crop protection and biological validation.
40. https://www.moneytimes.com.br/el-nino-forte-alimenta-preocupacoes-com-colheitas-globais-enquanto-guerra-no-ira-pesa-pads/ - A strong El Niño event, with a 70% chance of occurring in the Northern Hemisphere summer, is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to Asia in the second half of 2026, jeopardising crop yields. Simultaneously, the war in Iran is disrupting global trade by choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. Affected regions include Australia, India, China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, where farmers face reduced planting, potential monsoon failures, and supply chain interruptions.
41. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/23/fertiliser-short-supply-australia-farmers-bread-prices-strait-of-hormuz - The US-Israel conflict with Iran has severely disrupted global fertiliser supplies, particularly urea, as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closes. Australia, importing nearly 90% of its nitrogen fertilisers, faces a 75% price surge since the war began. Soaring input costs, including diesel and fertiliser, threaten to slash agricultural sector income by a third. Farmers are deciding whether to reduce planting or absorb costs, with smaller farms most at risk. Reduced fertiliser use could lead to significant crop yield drops by harvest time, potentially increasing food prices in the long term.
42. https://www.elnacional.com/2026/04/diez-paises-concentran-dos-tercios-de-las-personas-mas-afectadas-por-el-hambre/ - A UN-backed report reveals that two-thirds of individuals experiencing acute food crises in 2025 resided in just ten countries, with Sudan, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for one-third of this total. Conflicts remain the primary driver of acute food insecurity, while extreme weather events threaten to worsen conditions. The report highlights a famine in Gaza and parts of Sudan for the first time in the same year. Approximately 266 million people faced high levels of acute food insecurity globally, nearly double the 2016 figure. The outlook for 2026 is described as bleak due to ongoing conflicts, climate shocks, and a significant decline in humanitarian funding. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has spiked fertilizer prices, posing a massive risk to agricultural production during the planting season.
43. https://www.agribusinessglobal.com/agrochemicals/china-price-shifts-energy-pressures-reshape-global-agrochemical-outlook/ - Bob Trogele, CEO of ProAgInvest, states that while China's domestic agrochemical market remains stable, export prices for phosphorus-based products like ammonia are increasing by 10% to 15% due to tax policy changes. Global energy volatility impacts the sector unevenly, with gas-reliant regions like India facing higher pressure than coal-based China. Trogele advises manufacturers to adopt adaptability, strategic inventory management, and financial hedging to navigate rising costs and long-term energy deficits driven by digital infrastructure growth.
44. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/igc-pares-global-grain-output-projections-for-2026-27-by-3-million-tonnes/article70902054.ece - The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered global foodgrain production projections for 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes to 2,414 million tonnes. This reduction stems from concerns over fertilizer affordability and supply chain disruptions caused by the war in West Asia. While output remains the second largest ever, declines are anticipated for major crops including wheat and maize. Consumption estimates were also reduced by 3 million tonnes to 2,437 million tonnes. Global stocks are forecast to build by 9 per cent, marking the sharpest expansion rate in nine years, though total supply is expected to be slightly tighter than the prior season.
45. https://www.moneytimes.com.br/el-nino-forte-alimenta-preocupacoes-com-colheitas-globais-enquanto-guerra-no-ira-pesa-pads/ - A strong El Niño event, with a 70% chance of occurring in the Northern Hemisphere summer, is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions to Asia in the second half of 2026, jeopardising crop yields. Simultaneously, the war in Iran is disrupting global trade by choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. Affected regions include Australia, India, China, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, where farmers face reduced planting, potential monsoon failures, and supply chain interruptions.
46. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-raises-wheat-procurement-target-15-to-support-rain-hit-farmers-126042401199_1.html - The central government increased the wheat procurement target to 34.5 million tonnes, a 15% rise from the previous 30 million tonnes, to assist farmers affected by unseasonal rains. Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra announced higher state-wise targets for Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, alongside a return to Delhi procurement. Quality norms were relaxed in major growing states. The increase adds to existing stocks, with total availability projected at 56.5 million tonnes against a Public Distribution System requirement of 20 million tonnes for 2026-27. Production for 2025-26 is estimated between 110 and 120 million tonnes due to weather damage.
47. https://i-epikaira.blogspot.com/2026/04/reuters-iran-war-pushing-more-than-30.html - Alexander De Croo, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, stated that the Iran war is pushing more than 30 million people back into poverty due to disruptions in fuel and fertiliser supplies. Fertiliser shortages, exacerbated by blocked cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have lowered agricultural productivity and are expected to hit crop yields later this year. The crisis has also caused energy shortages, falling remittances, and wiped out 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP. Food insecurity is projected to peak in a few months, straining humanitarian efforts in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
48. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/igc-pares-global-grain-output-projections-for-2026-27-by-3-million-tonnes/article70902054.ece - The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered global foodgrain production projections for 2026-27 by 3 million tonnes to 2,414 million tonnes. This reduction stems from concerns over fertilizer affordability and supply chain disruptions caused by the war in West Asia. While output remains the second largest ever, declines are anticipated for major crops including wheat and maize. Consumption estimates were also reduced by 3 million tonnes to 2,437 million tonnes. Global stocks are forecast to build by 9 per cent, marking the sharpest expansion rate in nine years, though total supply is expected to be slightly tighter than the prior season.
49. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-raises-wheat-procurement-target-15-to-support-rain-hit-farmers-126042401199_1.html - The central government increased the wheat procurement target to 34.5 million tonnes, a 15% rise from the previous 30 million tonnes, to assist farmers affected by unseasonal rains. Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra announced higher state-wise targets for Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, alongside a return to Delhi procurement. Quality norms were relaxed in major growing states. The increase adds to existing stocks, with total availability projected at 56.5 million tonnes against a Public Distribution System requirement of 20 million tonnes for 2026-27. Production for 2025-26 is estimated between 110 and 120 million tonnes due to weather damage.
50. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-raises-wheat-procurement-target-15-to-support-rain-hit-farmers-126042401199_1.html - The central government increased the wheat procurement target to 34.5 million tonnes, a 15% rise from the previous 30 million tonnes, to assist farmers affected by unseasonal rains. Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra announced higher state-wise targets for Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttarakhand, alongside a return to Delhi procurement. Quality norms were relaxed in major growing states. The increase adds to existing stocks, with total availability projected at 56.5 million tonnes against a Public Distribution System requirement of 20 million tonnes for 2026-27. Production for 2025-26 is estimated between 110 and 120 million tonnes due to weather damage.
51. https://i-epikaira.blogspot.com/2026/04/reuters-iran-war-pushing-more-than-30.html - Alexander De Croo, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, stated that the Iran war is pushing more than 30 million people back into poverty due to disruptions in fuel and fertiliser supplies. Fertiliser shortages, exacerbated by blocked cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have lowered agricultural productivity and are expected to hit crop yields later this year. The crisis has also caused energy shortages, falling remittances, and wiped out 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP. Food insecurity is projected to peak in a few months, straining humanitarian efforts in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
52. https://cursorinfo.co.il/israel-news/vojna-s-iranom-mozhet-udarit-po-koshelkam-izrailtyan-smi/ - The UN and international analysts warn that a war with Iran could trigger a new global food crisis, driving up prices in Israel. Rising energy and fertilizer costs are reducing global crop yields, threatening food security for 266 million people in 2025. Israel, reliant on imports, faces potential inflation in vegetables, grains, meat, and dairy products if the conflict persists. FAO Chief Economist Massimo Torrero predicts supply shocks could last until next year, impacting even developed economies.
53. https://www.agdaily.com/insights/are-federal-actions-doing-enough-or-anything-to-help-u-s-farmers/ - Despite federal initiatives framing farm security as national security, US farmers face severe challenges including soaring fertilizer prices driven by the Iran conflict, restricted access to foreign drones, and criticism of glyphosate policies. Experts note that current measures have not materially improved short-term availability or affordability, leaving growers struggling with input costs and supply instability during the planting season.
54. https://tass.com/politics/2122091 - Maria Zakharova, Official Spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that the European Union's 20th package of sanctions against Russian hydrocarbons harms EU energy security. She argued the measures threaten global energy markets and food security due to restrictions on fertilizers and ammonia imports. The EU approved these sanctions yesterday.
55. https://tass.com/politics/2122091 - Maria Zakharova, Official Spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that the European Union's 20th package of sanctions against Russian hydrocarbons harms EU energy security. She argued the measures threaten global energy markets and food security due to restrictions on fertilizers and ammonia imports. The EU approved these sanctions yesterday.
56. https://www.dhnet.be/actu/belgique/2026/04/24/meteo-si-le-mercure-ne-decolle-pas-la-secheresse-sinstalle-deja-sur-plusieurs-regions-du-pays-tous-les-elements-pour-favoriser-des-incendies-X2ZVG5TYCRBOLMYJXYQUAEQV2Y/ - Pascal Mormal, a Belgian meteorologist, states that the country is entering a meteorological drought with April 2026 expected to be among the driest in 40 years. While hydrological reserves remain secure, surface soils are drying, creating conditions favourable for wildfires, particularly in the Hautes Fagnes. No major alert is currently in place, but agricultural sectors face potential issues if rain does not arrive within two to three weeks.
57. https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF/5266016-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%B9-%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%85-%D9%81%D9%8A-2026-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%AF - The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises indicates that hunger levels remain critical due to ongoing conflicts, drought, and declining aid. Acute hunger increased threefold over the last decade, with famine declared in Gaza and Sudan. In 2025, 266 million people faced high acute food insecurity across 47 countries. The report warns that the US-Israeli war on Iran threatens to exacerbate global food markets, while West Africa and the Horn of Africa face severe pressure from conflict, inflation, and reduced rainfall. Humanitarian funding for food sectors dropped by 39% in 2025.
58. https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9831951/russia-extends-fertilizer-export-quotas-as-global-supply-tightens/ - Russia has extended its fertilizer export quotas to December, allowing producers to export 20 million tons between June and November. This move addresses global supply tightness caused by trade route disruptions and conflicts involving Iran. Major producers, including Russia and China, have restricted exports, contributing to rising prices. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have nearly doubled since February. The updated quota includes specific allocations for nitrogen, ammonium nitrate, and complex fertilizers, while domestic supply remains prioritized.
59. https://www.hortidaily.com/article/9831328/canadian-fertilizer-supply-pressure-drives-higher-costs-for-growers/ - Canadian farmers face rising fertilizer costs due to global supply disruptions linked to the Persian Gulf and tariffs on Russian and Belarusian imports. The Atlantic Grains Council warns of a deteriorating situation, noting farmers have lost access to nearly half of global nitrogen supply. While short-term supply in Prince Edward Island remains stable, prices are expected to rise later in the year, impacting the bottom line and potentially affecting vegetable and greenhouse product costs.
60. https://natlawreview.com/article/reconsidering-anti-dumping-tariffs-legal-framework-jurisprudence-and-practical - The article outlines legal strategies for importers and exporters to review, reduce, or revoke anti-dumping duties under U.S. and WTO law. It details the lifecycle of anti-dumping measures, including administrative reviews, changed circumstances petitions, and five-year sunset reviews. The text highlights that duties often remain in place long after their original purpose, distorting trade. It provides practical guidance on gathering evidence for revocation, engaging in strategic administrative reviews, and leveraging judicial or WTO remedies to challenge unfair margin calculations or outdated orders.
61. https://www.farmersguide.co.uk/business/politics/mps-warned-of-rising-costs-for-farms-on-cusp-of-viability/ - MPs warned that British farms are facing a third major shock in six years as the Iran conflict causes fertiliser and red diesel prices to soar. Ammonium nitrate and urea prices have risen significantly, while direct payments are being phased out. Experts warn this erodes viability for farmers on the cusp of financial stability, potentially leading to demand destruction and plant closures if confidence does not return by June/July. The AIC has urged the government to support cash flow and clarify regulations to prevent industry shutdown.
62. https://energynews.biz/atomes-paraguay-fid-tests-commercial-viability-of-green-hydrogen-fertilizer-at-scale/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=atomes-paraguay-fid-tests-commercial-viability-of-green-hydrogen-fertilizer-at-scale - ATOME PLC has secured a $665 million final investment decision for the Villeta project, a 260,000 tonne per year low-carbon fertilizer plant in Paraguay. The facility, led by ATOME with financing from IDB Invest, IFC, EIB, and Hy24, aims to produce calcium ammonium nitrate using hydropower to decouple production from fossil fuels. Supported by a 10-year offtake agreement with Yara International, the project targets commercial viability without direct government subsidies, with production targeted for 2029.
63. https://nadia-onpoint.com/how-4-overlooked-food-supply-problems-might-disrupt-your-meals/ - Analysis highlights four critical issues threatening global food security: a fertilizer crisis driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and high natural gas costs, water scarcity affecting staple crops, increased food export bans by sixteen countries, and significant food waste. These factors are projected to reduce corn acreage, lower crop yields, and raise food prices by the fall of 2026. The World Bank, World Resources Institute, and UN FAO report on these systemic pressures reshaping agriculture and supply chains.
64. https://orfme.org/expert-speak/resilient-food-systems-beyond-inorganic-fertiliser-reliance/ - Geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions involving Iran, have exposed fragilities in the global fertiliser supply chain. Key exporters like Russia, China, and Gulf states dominate production, creating risks of price shocks and trade disruptions. Conflicts have damaged infrastructure and blocked critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. The article argues for bolstering regional reserves, diversifying trade, and transitioning to organic and low-carbon alternatives to ensure food security and decouple systems from market volatility.
65. https://focus.ua/economics/751852-prodovolstvennyy-krizis-2026-kak-konflikt-na-blizhnem-vostoke-izmenit-rynok - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global agricultural crisis in 2026. The closure threatens fertilizer exports, with the region supplying nearly 50% of global sulfur sales and a third of urea. Experts predict a one-third reduction in global crop yields due to nitrogen shortages, driving up prices for staples like bread and pasta. Vulnerable regions include Asia, Africa, Brazil, and India. The European Central Bank notes potential inflationary impacts, while Ukraine faces increased production costs and potential export shifts. The World Bank highlights risks similar to 2008 and 2011 without coordinated global action.
66. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161960.html - The State Statistics Service reported that Ukraine's grain and leguminous crop production reached 61.0 million tonnes in 2025, an 8.2% increase compared to 2024. Corn and wheat dominated the harvest, with significant gains in Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytsky regions. Conversely, industrial crop yields declined, with sugar beet production falling 8.7% and sunflower production dropping 7.0%.
67. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161960.html - The State Statistics Service reported that Ukraine's grain and leguminous crop production reached 61.0 million tonnes in 2025, an 8.2% increase compared to 2024. Corn and wheat dominated the harvest, with significant gains in Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytsky regions. Conversely, industrial crop yields declined, with sugar beet production falling 8.7% and sunflower production dropping 7.0%.
68. https://www.dnevnik.bg/sviat/2026/04/24/4906651_silen_el_ninyo_nosi_jega_i_zasushavane_v_aziia_evropa/?ref=rss - A strong El Nino event is forecast to cause heatwaves and drought across Asia, impacting crops and food reserves, while bringing excessive rain to Europe and the US. The phenomenon, predicted by meteorological bureaus in Japan, China, and India, threatens wheat, rice, and palm oil production. Concurrently, fertilizer shortages due to conflict in the Middle East exacerbate agricultural risks. Farmers in Australia and India are already reducing planting due to dry conditions, with potential global supply chain disruptions expected through late 2026.
69. https://nairametrics.com/2026/04/24/bread-prices-to-jump-in-nigeria-as-us-wheat-hits-2-year-high/ - Bread prices in Nigeria are set to increase following a surge in US Hard Red Winter wheat prices to their highest level in nearly two years. Driven by severe drought in the US Great Plains and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, global wheat costs have risen significantly. As Nigeria, the fifth-largest US wheat market, faces record demand of 7.2 million tons, local millers and bakers may resort to price hikes or shrinkflation to offset the rising cost of imported flour.
70. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/24/nazvany-glavnye-pokupateli-rossiyskoy-pshenitsy/ - For the incomplete 2025/2026 season, Egypt and Turkey emerged as the primary purchasers of Russian wheat, according to the Rusagrotans analytical centre. Egyptian imports rose by 2 per cent to 7.8 million tonnes, retaining the top position. Turkey increased purchases by 2.6 times to over 6 million tonnes, while Iran, Sudan, and Israel also saw significant growth. Despite this export expansion, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture notes that low grain prices remain a challenge for meeting 2030 export targets.
71. https://www.azernews.az/nation/257474.html - Five rail wagons loaded with wheat are set to be transported to Armenia via Azerbaijan on 24 April 2026. This shipment continues a series of transit deliveries following a policy shift announced on 21 October 2025 by Ilham Aliyev and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, which lifted restrictions on cargo transit. Previous shipments included gasoline, diesel, fertilizers, and grain, with operations increasing steadily since the policy change to maintain regional trade connectivity.
72. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/24/nazvany-glavnye-pokupateli-rossiyskoy-pshenitsy/ - For the incomplete 2025/2026 season, Egypt and Turkey emerged as the primary purchasers of Russian wheat, according to the Rusagrotans analytical centre. Egyptian imports rose by 2 per cent to 7.8 million tonnes, retaining the top position. Turkey increased purchases by 2.6 times to over 6 million tonnes, while Iran, Sudan, and Israel also saw significant growth. Despite this export expansion, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture notes that low grain prices remain a challenge for meeting 2030 export targets.
73. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/24/rossii-sprognozirovali-snizhenie-urozhaya-klyuchevoy-agrokultury/ - The Russian agricultural centre Rusagrotans predicts wheat harvests in the 2026/27 season will drop by 300,000 tonnes compared to the previous year, reaching 90.8 million tonnes. This decline follows weather-related damage in the Saratov and Krasnodar regions during the 2025 season. Despite the forecast, total grain stocks are expected to remain stable. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to mitigate future risks from droughts and frosts.
74. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/24/rossii-sprognozirovali-snizhenie-urozhaya-klyuchevoy-agrokultury/ - The Russian agricultural centre Rusagrotans predicts wheat harvests in the 2026/27 season will drop by 300,000 tonnes compared to the previous year, reaching 90.8 million tonnes. This decline follows weather-related damage in the Saratov and Krasnodar regions during the 2025 season. Despite the forecast, total grain stocks are expected to remain stable. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to mitigate future risks from droughts and frosts.
75. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/24/nazvany-glavnye-pokupateli-rossiyskoy-pshenitsy/ - For the incomplete 2025/2026 season, Egypt and Turkey emerged as the primary purchasers of Russian wheat, according to the Rusagrotans analytical centre. Egyptian imports rose by 2 per cent to 7.8 million tonnes, retaining the top position. Turkey increased purchases by 2.6 times to over 6 million tonnes, while Iran, Sudan, and Israel also saw significant growth. Despite this export expansion, Russia's Ministry of Agriculture notes that low grain prices remain a challenge for meeting 2030 export targets.
76. https://economynext.com/asia-could-face-increased-food-cost-pressures-amidst-prolonged-us-iran-war-fitch/-/268324/ - Fitch Ratings warns that emerging Asian markets reliant on imported food and fertiliser, including Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Bangladesh, could face rising cost pressures if a prolonged US-Iran war disrupts fertiliser supplies during the planting season. The agency notes that nitrogen-based urea prices have risen by approximately 50% to USD700 a tonne. If supply disruptions persist, reduced fertiliser application could weaken crop yields, leading to higher food prices later in 2026 and potentially pushing millions more into acute food insecurity.
77. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/how-el-nino-could-impact-the-worlds-weather-in-202627/article70900660.ece - Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Nino phenomenon will develop in the second half of 2026, potentially causing hotter and drier conditions across Asia while increasing rainfall in parts of the Americas. Authorities in Japan, India, China, and the US anticipate a high probability of the event emerging between May and July. Historical data indicates previous El Nino events have led to droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, reduced monsoon rains in India, and crop yield disruptions in the Americas. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-median rains for eastern cropping regions during the first half of the country's growing season.
78. https://www.zawya.com/en/business/commodities/wheat-poised-for-weekly-gain-on-dryness-concerns-t8meoyn6 - Chicago wheat futures slipped on Friday but remain on track for a second consecutive weekly gain due to worsening drought conditions in the U.S. Plains, specifically central and western Nebraska and Kansas. While rains are expected in the central United States within the next 10 days, rising crude oil prices and robust corn export demand continue to buoy grain markets. Argentina also raised its 2025/26 soybean harvest estimate.
79. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/global-food-security-critical-level-091419096.html - The United Nations warns that global food security has reached a critical level, with 266 million people facing acute food insecurity in 2025. The ongoing conflict in Iran is disrupting energy and fertiliser markets, driving up costs and forcing farmers to plant less. Major producers including Bangladesh, India, and Brazil are entering critical planting cycles. Famine has been confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and Sudan. Experts predict significant problems in the second half of the year and into next year due to these supply shocks.
80. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/how-el-nino-could-impact-the-worlds-weather-in-202627/article70900660.ece - Global weather forecasters predict a strong El Nino phenomenon will develop in the second half of 2026, potentially causing hotter and drier conditions across Asia while increasing rainfall in parts of the Americas. Authorities in Japan, India, China, and the US anticipate a high probability of the event emerging between May and July. Historical data indicates previous El Nino events have led to droughts in Australia and Southeast Asia, reduced monsoon rains in India, and crop yield disruptions in the Americas. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-median rains for eastern cropping regions during the first half of the country's growing season.
81. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/global-food-security-critical-level-091419096.html - The United Nations warns that global food security has reached a critical level, with 266 million people facing acute food insecurity in 2025. The ongoing conflict in Iran is disrupting energy and fertiliser markets, driving up costs and forcing farmers to plant less. Major producers including Bangladesh, India, and Brazil are entering critical planting cycles. Famine has been confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and Sudan. Experts predict significant problems in the second half of the year and into next year due to these supply shocks.
82. https://www.zawya.com/en/business/commodities/wheat-poised-for-weekly-gain-on-dryness-concerns-t8meoyn6 - Chicago wheat futures slipped on Friday but remain on track for a second consecutive weekly gain due to worsening drought conditions in the U.S. Plains, specifically central and western Nebraska and Kansas. While rains are expected in the central United States within the next 10 days, rising crude oil prices and robust corn export demand continue to buoy grain markets. Argentina also raised its 2025/26 soybean harvest estimate.
83. https://www.agweek.com/crops/cereal-grains/in-40-years-south-dakota-farmer-says-hes-never-encountered-a-poorer-wheat-crop - Bryan Jorgensen, an agronomy operations officer at Jorgensen Land and Cattle in Ideal, South Dakota, states he has never seen a poorer winter wheat crop in his 40-year farming career. Severe dry conditions, low snowfall, and hot temperatures have caused significant crop failure, with approximately half of the local acres expected to be abandoned. USDA reports indicate 68% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in drought. While tighter supplies may lead to higher market prices, farmers face the challenge of having no wheat to sell.
84. https://millingmea.com/south-africa-wheat-plantings-fall-to-11-year-low-as-costs-rise/ - South Africa plans to plant 486,400 hectares of wheat in 2026, a 6% decrease marking the lowest area since 2015. Rising fuel and fertilizer prices, exacerbated by Middle East tensions, have made wheat farming economically unviable for farmers in the Swartland, Overberg, and Southern Cape regions. Consequently, output is expected to decline further, widening the gap between local supply and the 3.6 million tonnes of annual consumption, increasing reliance on imports.
85. https://www.agweek.com/opinion/a-closer-look-at-the-breakdown-of-fertilizer-concerns-related-to-the-iran-war - The war in Iran has caused significant increases in global fertilizer prices, with urea rising $170-$180 per ton and anhydrous ammonia up 25% since late February. Approximately one-third of US crop producers have not secured their 2026 fertilizer needs, facing potential supply shortages and higher costs. These rising expenses are exacerbating negative profit margins for many farmers, prompting calls for additional economic assistance from Congress. While potash prices remain stable, nitrogen and phosphate costs have surged, impacting production across the US, particularly in the Midwest.
86. https://aircargoweek.com/re-routing-resilience-india-streamlines-transhipment-rules-as-global-disruptions-redefine-cargo-flows/ - India is streamlining transhipment procedures to reduce delays and improve cargo flow as global disruptions, particularly in the Middle East, redefine trade routes. Policy reforms, including simplified documentation and waived port formalities, aim to position India as a competitive alternative transit hub on Asia-Europe corridors. The integration of air, sea, and land logistics is central to maintaining supply chain resilience, reflecting a shift from efficiency-led models to flexibility-driven strategies.
87. https://bioengineer.org/plasticity-in-source-sink-dynamics-enhances-wheat-yield-stability/ - Researchers published a study in Nature Communications revealing that plasticity in source-sink dynamics is a crucial factor for wheat yield stability. The research demonstrates that wheat plants dynamically regulate the balance between photosynthetic source tissues and carbohydrate-consuming sink organs to buffer against environmental fluctuations like drought and temperature extremes. By modulating resource allocation based on environmental cues, certain wheat cultivars maintain consistent production levels. The study identifies genetic variation governing this plasticity and developed a mechanistic model to forecast yield outcomes, offering new pathways for breeding crops with enhanced buffering capacity against climate variability to ensure global food security.
88. https://www.agweek.com/crops/cereal-grains/in-40-years-south-dakota-farmer-says-hes-never-encountered-a-poorer-wheat-crop - Bryan Jorgensen, an agronomy operations officer at Jorgensen Land and Cattle in Ideal, South Dakota, states he has never seen a poorer winter wheat crop in his 40-year farming career. Severe dry conditions, low snowfall, and hot temperatures have caused significant crop failure, with approximately half of the local acres expected to be abandoned. USDA reports indicate 68% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in drought. While tighter supplies may lead to higher market prices, farmers face the challenge of having no wheat to sell.
89. https://millingmea.com/south-africa-wheat-plantings-fall-to-11-year-low-as-costs-rise/ - South Africa plans to plant 486,400 hectares of wheat in 2026, a 6% decrease marking the lowest area since 2015. Rising fuel and fertilizer prices, exacerbated by Middle East tensions, have made wheat farming economically unviable for farmers in the Swartland, Overberg, and Southern Cape regions. Consequently, output is expected to decline further, widening the gap between local supply and the 3.6 million tonnes of annual consumption, increasing reliance on imports.
90. https://www.agweek.com/crops/cereal-grains/in-40-years-south-dakota-farmer-says-hes-never-encountered-a-poorer-wheat-crop - Bryan Jorgensen, an agronomy operations officer at Jorgensen Land and Cattle in Ideal, South Dakota, states he has never seen a poorer winter wheat crop in his 40-year farming career. Severe dry conditions, low snowfall, and hot temperatures have caused significant crop failure, with approximately half of the local acres expected to be abandoned. USDA reports indicate 68% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in drought. While tighter supplies may lead to higher market prices, farmers face the challenge of having no wheat to sell.
91. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-s-wheat-output-likely-to-fall-by-5-10-as-rain-hail-damage-crops-126042400334_1.html - Trade officials predict India's wheat output will decline by 5% to 10% from 2025 levels due to untimely rain and hail damaging crops before harvest. While this reduces production from the previous year's record, government stocks remain high at roughly three times the required level, preventing shortages. Major producing states including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan experienced above-average rainfall during the harvest period. Despite the drop, supplies are expected to meet local demand, and the government has approved additional wheat exports.
92. https://www.ariananews.af/russia-delivers-fortified-flour-aid-to-afghanistan/ - Russia delivered its first batch of fortified wheat flour aid to Afghanistan during a ceremony in Mazar-i-Sharif. The consignment, part of Russia's contribution to the World Food Programme, totals approximately 3,977 tonnes. This delivery addresses food insecurity caused by economic challenges and instability. The World Food Programme leads operations relying on international donor support to sustain programs for millions in need.
93. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-s-wheat-output-likely-to-fall-by-5-10-as-rain-hail-damage-crops-126042400334_1.html - Trade officials predict India's wheat output will decline by 5% to 10% from 2025 levels due to untimely rain and hail damaging crops before harvest. While this reduces production from the previous year's record, government stocks remain high at roughly three times the required level, preventing shortages. Major producing states including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan experienced above-average rainfall during the harvest period. Despite the drop, supplies are expected to meet local demand, and the government has approved additional wheat exports.
94. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/farmers-leader-voices-fears-over-063000206.html - Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers' Union (NFU), warned Norfolk farmers that the war in the Middle East is severely testing the UK's food system resilience. He highlighted soaring fuel and fertiliser prices driven by the conflict in Iran and potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Bradshaw urged the government to prioritise the farm-to-fork supply chain during shortages and to halt an upcoming 5p fuel duty increase. He noted that while the UK may not import directly from the conflict zone, global stockpiling by other nations creates a severe risk of domestic supply shocks affecting autumn cropping decisions.
95. https://www.orissapost.com/early-summer-impending-el-nino/ - The Indian government predicts below-average monsoon rains for 2026, the lowest in three years, driven by impending El Nino conditions. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts 92% of the long-period average, raising concerns for agriculture and GDP growth. Early heatwaves have already impacted northern, central, and western regions, with peak power demand projected to reach record levels. Experts warn of adverse effects on farm yields, water availability, and urban heat management due to climate change and pollution.
96. https://www.radiofree.org/2026/04/23/the-looming-food-crisis-why-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-disrupting-global-agriculture-2/ - The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased fuel costs and caused global shortages of key fertilizers, severely impacting the agricultural industry. Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London, warns that approximately one-third of the world's basic fertilizers pass through the strait. He states that these disruptions, combined with existing climate and debt crises in the developing world, create a perfect storm that could lead to a long-term food crisis, particularly affecting the Global South.
97. https://www.prensalibre.com/economia/fao-alerta-por-alza-de-precios-y-produccion-de-alimentos-por-la-guerra-en-iran/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that the ongoing conflict in Iran increases global food security risks, particularly for low-income import-dependent nations. Head economist Máximo Torero presented an report in Brunei highlighting supply chain disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockades. The conflict threatens fertilizer and grain production, potentially reducing agricultural yields in Latin America, including Brazil, and driving up global food prices. The FAO notes that reduced fertilizer use in Brazil could transmit the crisis to international markets, exacerbating hunger and inflation.
98. https://www.prensalibre.com/economia/fao-alerta-por-alza-de-precios-y-produccion-de-alimentos-por-la-guerra-en-iran/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that the ongoing conflict in Iran increases global food security risks, particularly for low-income import-dependent nations. Head economist Máximo Torero presented an report in Brunei highlighting supply chain disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockades. The conflict threatens fertilizer and grain production, potentially reducing agricultural yields in Latin America, including Brazil, and driving up global food prices. The FAO notes that reduced fertilizer use in Brazil could transmit the crisis to international markets, exacerbating hunger and inflation.
99. https://www.maritimegateway.com/indias-urea-imports-set-record-2-5-million-tonnes/ - India is importing a record 2.5 million tonnes of urea due to a domestic production shortfall caused by the Hormuz crisis disrupting natural gas supplies. Prices have nearly doubled from USD 484 to USD 652-684 per tonne. The order, executed through Indian Potash Limited, addresses a 25 per cent drop in domestic output from 24 lakh to 18 lakh tonnes per month ahead of the kharif sowing season. The procurement involves suppliers including Indonesia, Russia, and Egypt, reflecting severe supply chain pressures.
100. https://asiatimes.com/2026/04/sulfur-squeeze-gulf-chaos-is-coming-for-asias-food-prices/ - Shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and tightening export conditions are constraining sulfur and sulfuric acid flows, critical inputs for fertilizer production. These logistical challenges, driven by vessel shortages and rerouting, are creating upstream stress that will gradually transmit to Asian food markets. The region's heavy reliance on imported inputs and fertilizer subsidies exposes it to rising costs and potential policy strain, with inflationary pressures expected to emerge as inventory buffers weaken.
101. https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/858328/biggest-blow-in-over-10-years-for-one-of-south-africas-most-important-farmers/ - South African wheat producers plan to plant 486,400 hectares in 2026, a 6% decrease from the previous year and the smallest area since 2015. The Crop Estimate Committee attributes this reduction to surging costs of imported fertiliser and fuel driven by the war in Iran. Diesel prices rose over 40% in April, while generic wheat futures increased 6.9%. Conversely, corn production estimates were raised by 2% to a record 16.8 million tons, which may help mitigate inflationary pressures from the smaller wheat harvest.
102. https://businesstech.co.za/news/business/858328/biggest-blow-in-over-10-years-for-one-of-south-africas-most-important-farmers/ - South African wheat producers plan to plant 486,400 hectares in 2026, a 6% decrease from the previous year and the smallest area since 2015. The Crop Estimate Committee attributes this reduction to surging costs of imported fertiliser and fuel driven by the war in Iran. Diesel prices rose over 40% in April, while generic wheat futures increased 6.9%. Conversely, corn production estimates were raised by 2% to a record 16.8 million tons, which may help mitigate inflationary pressures from the smaller wheat harvest.
103. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/las-encuestas-son-contundentes-la-siembra-de-trigo-caeria-en-300000-hectareas-en-la-zona-nucleo-nid23042026/ - The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) reports a projected 300,000-hectare reduction in wheat planting for the 2026/27 campaign in Argentina's core region, bringing the total area to 1.517 million hectares. This 17% interannual decline is driven by a deteriorating economic equation where urea fertilizer costs have surged 77% while wheat prices rose only 16-20%. Margins have contracted by 43% in owned fields and 54% in rented fields between March and April. The BCR notes that despite favorable soil moisture, producers cannot sustain current areas due to input costs, with some regions facing up to 30% cuts.
104. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/economia/campo/las-encuestas-son-contundentes-la-siembra-de-trigo-caeria-en-300000-hectareas-en-la-zona-nucleo-nid23042026/ - The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) reports a projected 300,000-hectare reduction in wheat planting for the 2026/27 campaign in Argentina's core region, bringing the total area to 1.517 million hectares. This 17% interannual decline is driven by a deteriorating economic equation where urea fertilizer costs have surged 77% while wheat prices rose only 16-20%. Margins have contracted by 43% in owned fields and 54% in rented fields between March and April. The BCR notes that despite favorable soil moisture, producers cannot sustain current areas due to input costs, with some regions facing up to 30% cuts.
105. https://pakobserver.net/hormuz-pakistans-food-security/ - FAO analysis warns that conflict in the Gulf region disrupting the Strait of Hormuz poses a dual threat to Pakistan. Maritime blockages could sever supply chains for nitrogen fertilizers, driving up costs and reducing crop yields. Simultaneously, instability may reduce remittance inflows from Arab countries, which currently account for over half of Pakistan's foreign remittances. The combined shock to agricultural inputs and household income requires immediate policy action, including alternative trade routes and diversified sourcing, to protect the domestic food system.
106. https://asianews.network/the-economic-connection/ - A collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy supplies for India and Pakistan, causing oil price surges, currency weakness, and market falls. The disruption has eliminated Pakistan's current account surplus and increased freight costs by over 90%. Both nations face significant risks to food security due to fertiliser shortages and reliance on Gulf imports. The article argues that despite political tensions, shared infrastructure like the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline is essential to reduce dependence on the chokepoint and ensure regional stability.
107. https://nadinabbott.substack.com/p/the-global-economy-and-the-iran-war - Global oil inventories are approaching historic lows due to the Iran conflict, with a cumulative decline of approximately 474 million barrels since the war began. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered emergency responses in South Korea, Japan, and the UK, leading to flight cancellations and anticipated diesel shortages. The disruption also threatens global fertilizer supplies, which rely heavily on Gulf exports, raising concerns about food security and potential economic crashes in dependent nations.
108. https://www.thecattlesite.com/news/brazil-eyes-export-gains-under-eu-mercosur-deal - Brazil's Vice President Geraldo Alckmin stated that exports are projected to increase by 13% by 2038 following the full enforcement of the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. Industrial exports could rise by 26% as tariff reductions on approximately 5,000 products begin immediately, with full implementation expected within 12 years. The deal, tentatively effective from May 1, includes safeguards allowing temporary suspensions if import spikes occur. Brazil aims to expand trade partnerships with the US and discuss Venezuela's potential return to the Mercosur bloc.
109. https://indiawest.com/india-a-tough-nut-to-crack-says-us-trade-representative-greer/ - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing that India remains a challenging market for US trade negotiators due to persistent barriers in agriculture and market access. Greer noted that while discussions continue under a bilateral framework, New Delhi has long protected its agricultural markets. Talks involving senior Indian trade officials and the US administration are ongoing, with potential for mutual agreement in areas like distillers dried grains where domestic sensitivities are lower. The US seeks expanded access for agricultural and industrial exports, while India aims for concessions in services.
110. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-surges-on-drought-input-cost-concerns/ - Wheat futures rose sharply driven by severe drought conditions affecting 70% of US winter wheat areas and concerns over rising input costs. The US Drought Monitor indicates worsening conditions in the Plains, while global markets monitor planting progress in Argentina, Canada, and weather developments in Russia and Ukraine. Concurrently, soybeans declined on profit-taking, with China relying on South American supplies amidst delayed trade meetings. Corn prices also increased due to short covering and spillover effects from the wheat rally.
111. https://www.wwbl.com/2026/04/23/ag-secretary-rollins-teases-all-of-government-plan-to-crush-soaring-fertilizer-costs/ - US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins testified before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that the Trump administration is coordinating across multiple federal agencies to address rising fertilizer costs. The strategy involves short-term regulatory changes to lower prices and long-term investments to rebuild domestic production capacity, reducing reliance on foreign producers like Russia and China. Efforts include accelerating private investment, lifting permitting slowdowns, and opening supply lines from Venezuela.
112. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-surges-on-drought-input-cost-concerns/ - Wheat futures rose sharply driven by severe drought conditions affecting 70% of US winter wheat areas and concerns over rising input costs. The US Drought Monitor indicates worsening conditions in the Plains, while global markets monitor planting progress in Argentina, Canada, and weather developments in Russia and Ukraine. Concurrently, soybeans declined on profit-taking, with China relying on South American supplies amidst delayed trade meetings. Corn prices also increased due to short covering and spillover effects from the wheat rally.
113. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-surges-on-drought-input-cost-concerns/ - Wheat futures rose sharply driven by severe drought conditions affecting 70% of US winter wheat areas and concerns over rising input costs. The US Drought Monitor indicates worsening conditions in the Plains, while global markets monitor planting progress in Argentina, Canada, and weather developments in Russia and Ukraine. Concurrently, soybeans declined on profit-taking, with China relying on South American supplies amidst delayed trade meetings. Corn prices also increased due to short covering and spillover effects from the wheat rally.
114. https://nuevodia.com.ve/fao-la-guerra-en-iran-pone-en-riesgo-la-seguridad-alimentaria-mundial/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that the ongoing conflict in Iran threatens global food security, particularly for low-income import-dependent nations. Chief Economist Máximo Torero highlighted supply chain disruptions caused by blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers. The report, presented in Brunei, notes that prolonged conflict will reduce food production and distribution. Latin American farmers, already facing market difficulties, may reduce fertilizer use due to rising costs, potentially lowering crop yields and transmitting the crisis to global food markets. Brazil is specifically cited as vulnerable due to its reliance on Persian Gulf fertilizers.
115. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-24/charts-paint-worrying-picture-global-fertiliser-prices/106590152 - Analysts at CRU Group predict global fertiliser prices will continue rising for months, even if the Strait of Hormuz opens immediately. Disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and manufacturing, including strikes on Qatari and Iranian facilities, have removed 1.9 million tonnes of urea production. Combined with high sulphur prices and Chinese export restrictions, affordability is at historic lows. Australia faces a potential shortfall during winter sowing, prompting the federal government to underwrite imports from Incitec Pivot and CSBP and lower biosecurity requirements for supplies from regions like Nigeria and Oman.
116. https://www.foodmakers.it/allarme-fao-stretto-hormuz-crisi-alimentare-fertilizzanti-2026/ - The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a warning that geopolitical instability in the Hormuz Strait could severely impact global food security. The strait currently facilitates approximately 45% of global fertilizer and pesticide exports. A potential blockade or disruption would cut off essential nutrients for agriculture worldwide, leading to reduced crop yields, livestock feed shortages, and a sharp increase in food prices. The FAO projects a vertiginous rise in global food prices by the end of 2026 if the situation is not stabilised, highlighting the vulnerability of the global supply chain to geopolitical events in the Middle East.
117. https://www.producer.com/news/agriculture-at-the-table-as-carney-forms-advisory-committee/ - Prime Minister Mark Carney has established an advisory committee on Canada-U.S. economic relations to review the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), with over 20% of its 24 members representing the agricultural sector. The committee aims to ensure the agri-food industry, which exports $62 billion annually to the United States, provides input during the upcoming review scheduled for July 1. While U.S. industry groups have expressed support for renewing the 16-year deal without changes, the committee will gather sector-specific information to inform government negotiators as the agreement approaches its first mandatory review.
118. https://www.zeebiz.com/economy-infra/agricultue/news-yogi-government-provides-relief-for-rain-affected-wheat-in-up-procurement-under-relaxed-norms-394205 - The Uttar Pradesh government under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has introduced relaxed quality standards for wheat procurement to assist farmers affected by unseasonal rainfall. Permissible limits for lustre loss have been increased to 70 per cent, and tolerance for shrivelled and broken grains raised to 20 per cent. Procured wheat will be stored separately and used only within the state to prevent distress sales and ensure fair pricing for farmers during the Rabi Marketing Season 2026–27.
119. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8813170/wheat-futures-rise-amid-production-concerns - Wheat futures prices increased due to adverse weather conditions affecting major producing countries including Russia, India, and the United States. Declining temperatures in the Black Sea region and drought in the US Great Plains have led to lower production estimates. Soft red winter wheat rose by 1.3% and hard red winter wheat by 1.8% on Thursday. Prices climbed to $6.1250 per bushel as of 9:50 AM Chicago time.
120. https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/iran-liveblog-news-krieg-nahost-luftabwehr-teheran-us-flugzeugtraeger-li.3472459 - Alexander De Croo, head of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), stated that the Iran conflict will push over 30 million people into poverty due to fuel and fertiliser shortages. The blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced agricultural productivity, threatening harvest yields and causing food insecurity to peak within months. The World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and UN World Food Programme previously warned of rising food prices. The crisis has destroyed 0.5 to 0.8 percent of global economic output, forcing restrictions on humanitarian aid while needs rise in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
121. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8813170/wheat-futures-rise-amid-production-concerns - Wheat futures prices increased due to adverse weather conditions affecting major producing countries including Russia, India, and the United States. Declining temperatures in the Black Sea region and drought in the US Great Plains have led to lower production estimates. Soft red winter wheat rose by 1.3% and hard red winter wheat by 1.8% on Thursday. Prices climbed to $6.1250 per bushel as of 9:50 AM Chicago time.
122. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/grain-ships-delayed-quequen-port-418364 - A trucker protest blocking access to Quequen and Bahia Blanca ports in Argentina has delayed at least 18 vessels loading grain and oilseed cargoes. The strike, which began on 7 April, demands higher freight rates following a 30% rise in fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Exporters estimate losses of approximately $300 million. The affected ships were carrying sunflower seeds, corn, barley, and wheat destined for markets including China, Vietnam, and Spain. The Quequen terminal handles 20% of Argentina's soybean exports.
123. https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bumper-wheat-harvest-in-madhya-pradesh-centre-ratchets-up-procurement-11400498 - In response to a bumper wheat harvest and global supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions, the Indian Central Government has increased the wheat procurement target for Madhya Pradesh to 10 million metric tonnes. This revision, communicated by Union Minister Pralhad Joshi to Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, addresses fears that farmers might be forced to sell below Minimum Support Price due to stalled exports. Procurement operations commenced in April in several divisions, initially focusing on small farmers. The state previously procured 7.7 million tonnes last year.
124. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8813170/wheat-futures-rise-amid-production-concerns - Wheat futures prices increased due to adverse weather conditions affecting major producing countries including Russia, India, and the United States. Declining temperatures in the Black Sea region and drought in the US Great Plains have led to lower production estimates. Soft red winter wheat rose by 1.3% and hard red winter wheat by 1.8% on Thursday. Prices climbed to $6.1250 per bushel as of 9:50 AM Chicago time.
125. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/grain-ships-delayed-quequen-port-418364 - A trucker protest blocking access to Quequen and Bahia Blanca ports in Argentina has delayed at least 18 vessels loading grain and oilseed cargoes. The strike, which began on 7 April, demands higher freight rates following a 30% rise in fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Exporters estimate losses of approximately $300 million. The affected ships were carrying sunflower seeds, corn, barley, and wheat destined for markets including China, Vietnam, and Spain. The Quequen terminal handles 20% of Argentina's soybean exports.
126. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/wheat-resumes-rally-on-worries-over-us-weather-iran-war-fkud3pqq - Chicago wheat futures rose 1.1% to $6.13-3/4 a bushel amid renewed concerns over drought in the US Plains and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Higher oil prices and a large Saudi wheat import tender further supported prices. While rain forecasts previously eased supply worries, dry weather in the US and western Europe threatens crop conditions. The conflict between the US and Iran has increased costs for fuel and fertiliser, impacting farming inputs.
127. https://www.dodgeglobe.com/weather-risks-spark-wheat-rally-as-grain-markets-hold-steady/ - Grain markets showed limited overall movement in mid-April, although a weather-driven surge in wheat futures highlighted potential volatility. The rally was triggered by weather concerns affecting wheat production, while other grain sectors remained stable during the period.
128. https://www.democracynow.org/2026/4/23/adam_hanieh - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global fertilizer and energy supplies, prompting warnings from the UN and FAO of a potential food catastrophe. Experts state that supply shortages and rising prices could push 45 million more people into hunger, particularly affecting nations in Asia and Africa like India, Sudan, and Egypt. The crisis stems from the strait's role in transporting Gulf-produced fertilizers and the region's status as a key logistics hub, exacerbating existing debt and climate crises in the Global South.
129. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/wheat-resumes-rally-on-worries-over-us-weather-iran-war-fkud3pqq - Chicago wheat futures rose 1.1% to $6.13-3/4 a bushel amid renewed concerns over drought in the US Plains and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Higher oil prices and a large Saudi wheat import tender further supported prices. While rain forecasts previously eased supply worries, dry weather in the US and western Europe threatens crop conditions. The conflict between the US and Iran has increased costs for fuel and fertiliser, impacting farming inputs.
130. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-us-trade-talks-greer-says-india-is-a-tough-nut-to-crack-2900675-2026-04-23?utm_source=rss - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer acknowledged India as a 'tough nut to crack' following negotiations in Washington. The 12-member Indian delegation, led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain, met with US officials to discuss a bilateral trade deal. While no concrete outcomes emerged, both sides aim to finalise a pact targeting $500 billion in trade by 2030. Discussions focus on agricultural market access and tariff reductions under a February framework.
131. https://www.anarchistfederation.net/usmca-listening-to-all-of-the-voices-from-the-countryside/ - Mexican agricultural organisations and the National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside are calling for revisions to the USMCA treaty. They argue the agreement has undermined food sovereignty by allowing subsidised US grain imports that collapsed profitability for local corn, bean, and wheat farmers. Key demands include excluding staple grains from the treaty, protecting native seeds and biodiversity against genetically modified organisms, banning agrochemicals, and ensuring labour rights for day labourers. Groups urge the federal government to implement a robust policy for self-sufficiency and market regulation rather than relying on the current trade framework.
132. https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-south-korea-to-conclude-fta-renegotiation-by-mid-2027-goyal-126042301328_1.html - Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal stated that India and South Korea will conclude renegotiations of their free trade agreement by mid-2027. The talks aim to establish a more reciprocal partnership, address non-tariff barriers, and improve rules of origin. This decision follows criticism regarding the imbalance of the 2009 agreement and high profit repatriation by South Korean firms. The two nations previously agreed to amend the FTA in 2015, with eleven rounds of negotiations already held.
133. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/wheat-resumes-rally-on-worries-over-us-weather-iran-war-fkud3pqq - Chicago wheat futures rose 1.1% to $6.13-3/4 a bushel amid renewed concerns over drought in the US Plains and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Higher oil prices and a large Saudi wheat import tender further supported prices. While rain forecasts previously eased supply worries, dry weather in the US and western Europe threatens crop conditions. The conflict between the US and Iran has increased costs for fuel and fertiliser, impacting farming inputs.
134. https://www.dodgeglobe.com/weather-risks-spark-wheat-rally-as-grain-markets-hold-steady/ - Grain markets showed limited overall movement in mid-April, although a weather-driven surge in wheat futures highlighted potential volatility. The rally was triggered by weather concerns affecting wheat production, while other grain sectors remained stable during the period.
135. https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/but-what-is-the-plan-foxs-varney-grills-trump-secretary-on-rising-farming-costs/ - Fox Business Network's Stuart Varney questioned Trump Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins regarding her strategy to mitigate rising fertilizer costs affecting American farmers. Rollins cited the President's energy independence policy and temporary lifting of the Jones Act as measures to increase supply. She noted that fertilizer prices had already jumped 40% during the Biden administration and highlighted ongoing meetings with the White House and industry CEOs. Rollins stated plans to open additional shipping lines from Venezuela and ease permitting processes to lower costs in the short term.
136. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/high-urea-prices-likely-to-linger/ - Shawn Arita, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University, stated during an International Food Policy Research Institute webinar that high urea prices will persist due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Prices are expected to remain between $600 and $700 through the fall and $500 to $600 through 2027. In a pessimistic scenario involving extended conflict, prices could exceed $1000 per metric ton. Approximately 35% of global urea moves through the strait, and the renormalization process is expected to be gradual, negatively impacting farm profitability.
137. https://www.eenews.net/articles/rollins-weighs-revival-of-biden-era-fertilizer-program/ - US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated she is evaluating the revival of the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, originally established during the Biden administration. This initiative aims to bolster domestic fertilizer production to mitigate economic fallout from the Iran war, which is causing soaring prices for farmers during the planting season. Rollins indicated that the administration is open to adopting effective ideas regardless of their origin to address market consolidation and price shocks.
138. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ubs-warns-drought-shock-unfolding-across-americas-breadbasket - UBS analysts led by Jonathan Pingle warn that severe drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in over 130 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Reduced soil moisture and heat stress threaten crop yields, livestock productivity, and pasture quality. UBS predicts these primary effects will lead to higher production costs and third-order impacts including elevated retail food prices and supply chain pressure later this year.
139. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/at-nearly-2x-price-india-to-import-record-urea-amid-hormuz-crisis-527202-2026-04-23?utm_source=rssfeed - India has agreed to purchase a record 2.5 million metric tonnes of urea at prices nearly double those of two months ago. Indian Potash Ltd finalised the deal after suppliers matched the lowest bids, securing 1.5 million tonnes for west coast delivery at $935 per tonne and 1 million tonnes for east coast delivery at $959 per tonne. This single tender covers roughly a quarter of India's annual import requirement. The procurement comes amid tensions in the Gulf and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which have disrupted oil and gas supplies and raised concerns about urea production. Shipments are scheduled to depart by June 14.
140. https://lafarmbureaunews.com/news/2026/4/23/usdas-rollins-signals-possible-action-soon-on-fertilizer-prices - USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins testified before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that the administration is considering an all-government approach to address fertilizer costs. She indicated an announcement could be released soon, potentially including additional funding. Rollins highlighted national security concerns regarding reliance on China and Russia for fertilizer production due to offshoring over the last decade.
141. https://en.antaranews.com/news/413435/pupuk-indonesia-ready-to-export-urea-to-australia-amid-global-demand - PT Pupuk Indonesia has confirmed its readiness to export 250,000 tonnes of urea to Australia under a government-to-government scheme. The deal aims to address global agricultural supply disruptions. President Director Rahmad Pribadi stated that while the company prioritises domestic needs, it has sufficient capacity to support the export. The agreement follows discussions between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Indonesia currently holds a surplus of urea against domestic demand.
142. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ubs-warns-drought-shock-unfolding-across-americas-breadbasket - UBS analysts led by Jonathan Pingle warn that severe drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in over 130 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Reduced soil moisture and heat stress threaten crop yields, livestock productivity, and pasture quality. UBS predicts these primary effects will lead to higher production costs and third-order impacts including elevated retail food prices and supply chain pressure later this year.
143. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/ubs-warns-drought-shock-unfolding-across-americas-breadbasket - UBS analysts led by Jonathan Pingle warn that severe drought conditions across the US agricultural belt rank among the worst in over 130 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Reduced soil moisture and heat stress threaten crop yields, livestock productivity, and pasture quality. UBS predicts these primary effects will lead to higher production costs and third-order impacts including elevated retail food prices and supply chain pressure later this year.
144. https://tedmag.com/washington-wire-updates-on-ieepa-tariff-refunds/ - Following the Supreme Court's February 2026 invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system to process refunds. The system is currently operational and will initially cover approximately 63% of affected entries, including unliquidated and recently liquidated cases. Eligible refunds are issued to the importer of record. Wholesalers and distributors must rely on contract terms for recovery. A secondary market for discounted refund claims has also emerged due to processing timelines.
145. https://tass.com/politics/2121619 - On April 23, Russia delivered a shipment of nutritionally fortified wheat flour to Afghanistan as part of its regular contribution to the UN World Food Programme fund. A handover ceremony took place in Mazar-i-Sharif, where the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the first batch of 3,976.6 tons would be distributed among residents in need. Staff of the Russian Consulate General in Mazar-i-Sharif attended the event.
146. https://www.descifrado.com/2026/04/23/fao-advierte-que-guerra-en-iran-disparara-precios-de-alimentos-en-latinoamerica/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns that the conflict in Iran threatens global food supplies by blocking 30% of world fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero states rising input costs will force farmers to reduce fertiliser use, lowering crop yields and driving up food inflation. Latin American nations, particularly Brazil, face critical risks as they import a quarter of their fertilisers from the Persian Gulf. Reduced Brazilian output of soy, maize, and sugar will automatically elevate international prices, impacting low-income countries dependent on food imports.
147. https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/european-gas-storage-the-worlds-winter-buffer-is-dwindling/ - Europe begins its 2026 gas injection season with only 31 bcm of storage, the lowest level since 2018, due to the loss of Russian pipeline gas and indefinite cessation of Qatari LNG imports. While Italy and France have stabilized stocks through national mandates, Germany and the Netherlands face severe shortage risks. EU policymakers are considering lowering the mandatory storage utilization target from 90% to 80% to ensure market certainty. The region requires a massive influx of gas to cover winter demand, with global LNG markets increasingly dependent on European storage capacity.
148. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/23/fermery-stali-otkazyvatsya-vyraschivat-nevygodnoe-zerno-v-rossii/ - Ardak Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, stated that small and medium farmers continue to operate at a loss despite proposed export duty cancellations. He warned that current conditions demotivate production, leading to potential harvest reductions and a shift towards more profitable oilseed and legume crops. The Russian Grain Union advocates for policy changes to ensure producer profitability and market stability.
149. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/23/fermery-stali-otkazyvatsya-vyraschivat-nevygodnoe-zerno-v-rossii/ - Ardak Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, stated that small and medium farmers continue to operate at a loss despite proposed export duty cancellations. He warned that current conditions demotivate production, leading to potential harvest reductions and a shift towards more profitable oilseed and legume crops. The Russian Grain Union advocates for policy changes to ensure producer profitability and market stability.
150. https://anabaptistworld.org/and-the-daily-bread-is-terror/ - Conflict involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global trade and spiked fuel prices. The closure impacts the flow of petroleum and urea, with 20-35% of global petroleum and 50% of the world's urea passing through the strait. These disruptions have increased operating costs for the global industrial food system, which relies heavily on fossil fuels and synthetic fertilizers. The article highlights the tension between current food production methods and long-term soil health and climate stability.
151. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/wheat-stubble-burning-rises-23-madhya-pradesh-tops-with-69-share-up-30/article70897467.ece - Active fire events from wheat residue burning increased by 23% to 32,630 since April 1, according to satellite data monitored by the Consortium for Research on Agroecosystem Monitoring and Modeling from Space (CREAMS) under the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Madhya Pradesh recorded 22,475 incidents, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 9,952. The rise is attributed to farmers cultivating short-duration maize as a third crop in the Terai belt after adopting groundwater irrigation. Officials urge local representatives to persuade farmers and raise awareness to curb the practice.
152. https://www.df.cl/internacional/economia/la-onu-advierte-que-los-efectos-de-la-guerra-en-medio-oriente-empujaran-de - Alexander De Croo, UN Development Programme administrator, stated that the war in the Middle East will push over 30 million people into poverty due to fuel and fertiliser supply disruptions. The shortage, exacerbated by a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced agricultural productivity and will affect harvests later this year. The World Bank, IMF, and World Food Programme also warned of rising food prices. The crisis has already reduced global GDP by 0.5% to 0.8%, straining humanitarian efforts in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
153. https://aif.ru/politics/blanar-nazval-uslovie-pri-kotorom-slovakiya-podderzhit-sankcii-es-protiv-rf - Slovakia Foreign Minister Juraj Blahar stated that Bratislava will not block the 20th EU sanctions package against Russia unless oil supplies via the Friendship pipeline through Ukraine resume without disruption and in agreed volumes. Previously, Slovakia and Hungary blocked the initiative due to the suspension of Russian oil transit. Blahar confirmed the EU ambassador in Brussels was instructed to agree only to the start of written procedures, not the adoption of the package. Vice-Speaker Tibor Gaspar also warned of potential blocking of Ukraine's EU accession if energy and military aid conflicts escalate.
154. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/west-asia-war-why-indian-exporters-are-using-alternate-routes-527156-2026-04-23?utm_source=rssfeed - Indian exporters are rerouting shipments via the Cape of Good Hope due to the West Asia crisis and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, adding 12-15 days and higher freight costs. Exports to West Asia fell 57.95% in March 2026, and overall goods exports dropped 7.44% in April 2026. The Commerce Ministry launched a RELIEF package in March 2026 to support exporters facing freight escalation and war-related risks.
155. https://www.sentinelassam.com/more-news/international/russia-hits-ukraine-port-zaporizhiarail-yard-in-overnight-drone-strikes - Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba reported that Russia conducted overnight drone strikes on Ukraine's main Black Sea port in Odesa and a railway facility in the Zaporizhia region. The attacks caused significant damage to port infrastructure including berths and storage areas. A strike on the Zaporizhia-Live station resulted in the death of an assistant train driver and injuries to the main driver. Kuleba condemned the actions as targeting civilians and essential service workers.
156. https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/aussenpolitik/uno-iran-krieg-stuerzt-mehr-als-30-millionen-menschen-in-die-armut;art391,4163633#ref=rss - Alexander De Croo, head of the UN Development Programme, stated that the Iran conflict has pushed over 30 million people into poverty due to fuel and fertiliser shortages. The blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced agricultural productivity, threatening to peak food insecurity within months. The crisis has destroyed 0.5 to 0.8 per cent of global economic output. De Croo noted that humanitarian aid must be restricted as needs rise in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
157. https://www.newarab.com/news/iran-war-pushing-more-30-million-back-poverty-un - Alexander De Croo, UNDP Administrator, stated that the Iran war will push more than 30 million people back into poverty due to disruptions in fuel and fertiliser supplies. Fertiliser shortages, exacerbated by blocked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, have lowered agricultural productivity and will likely hit crop yields later this year. The crisis has also caused energy shortages, falling remittances, and wiped out 0.5% to 0.8% of global GDP. Humanitarian efforts are straining as funding shrinks while needs rise in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
158. https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/2026/04/23/brazils-vp-alckmin-a-negotiator-of-the-mercosur-eu-deal-sees-it-as-relief-in-a-turbulent-world - Brazil Vice President Geraldo Alckmin described the Mercosur-EU trade agreement as a significant relief amidst global protectionism. The deal, provisionally effective from May 1, 2026, follows years of negotiations and faced delays due to opposition from farmers and environmentalists. Alckmin, a key negotiator, highlighted the agreement's potential to boost Brazilian exports by approximately 13% annually. Despite concerns regarding environmental regulations and safeguards raised by the EU, Alckmin defended Brazil's environmental record and the deal's gradual implementation strategy.
159. https://www.nachrichten.at/politik/aussenpolitik/uno-iran-krieg-stuerzt-mehr-als-30-millionen-menschen-in-die-armut;art391,4163633#ref=rss - Alexander De Croo, head of the UN Development Programme, stated that the Iran conflict has pushed over 30 million people into poverty due to fuel and fertiliser shortages. The blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced agricultural productivity, threatening to peak food insecurity within months. The crisis has destroyed 0.5 to 0.8 per cent of global economic output. De Croo noted that humanitarian aid must be restricted as needs rise in Sudan, Gaza, and Ukraine.
160. https://afnews.com.br/guerra-reduz-janela-ideal-para-compra-de-fertilizantes-diz-consultoria/ - StoneX analysts state that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significantly altered the traditional second-quarter buying window for fertilizers in 2026. The firm reports adverse conditions for nitrogenated and phosphate markets due to production cuts, logistical blockages at the Strait of Hormuz, and high raw material costs. While potash conditions remain relatively less restrictive, overall demand risks persist due to compressed agricultural margins and supply chain constraints affecting major importers like Brazil and India.
161. https://www.agri-mutuel.com/politique-economie/marches-agricoles-les-preoccupations-climatiques-reprennent-presque-le-dessus/ - Agricultural markets in the US, Europe, and globally are increasingly driven by climate fundamentals, specifically drought in the US corn belt and Brazil, alongside Middle East conflict impacts. Wheat and corn prices have firmed in Chicago and Paris due to extreme weather during critical flowering stages. Analysts from Argus Media, Ag Watch, and Kpler note that while 2025 exceptional stocks may moderate prices, fears of Brazilian corn production drops and geopolitical risks regarding fertilizers and soybean trade with China continue to support global commodity values.
162. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-resist-france-call-overhaul-us-trade-deal/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication - A majority of the EU Council, including Germany and Italy, rejects the European Parliament's proposal to add safeguards to the US-EU trade deal. While France and the Parliament seek a 'sunset' clause and emergency brakes, the Commission and most member states argue that the existing pact should stand. US Ambassador Andrew Puzder and Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič both emphasised that a deal is a deal, opposing further demands.
163. https://www.skynewsarabia.com/business/1865708-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B0%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%87%D8%B0%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8 - Geopolitical tensions in the Hormuz Strait are increasing the risk of a global food crisis. Disruptions to energy flows, including a US naval blockade and Iranian closures, have raised oil and gas prices, impacting fertilizer production and shipping logistics. Experts warn that reduced fertilizer availability and higher transport costs will lower crop yields and drive up food prices, particularly affecting import-dependent developing nations. The World Food Programme estimates 45 million additional people could face hunger if the blockade continues. Climate factors like El Niño may exacerbate the situation.
164. https://www.skynewsarabia.com/world/1865777-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D9%84%D8%AB-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2 - The United Nations states that approximately one third of the world's fertiliser is currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening current agricultural seasons. UN official Da Silva warned that delays could push an additional 45 million people into hunger and famine. He announced a ready-to-implement mechanism to facilitate safe passage for these essential goods within seven days, emphasising that collective will is needed to execute the solution before it is too late.
165. https://www.lankabusinessonline.com/2026/04/23/emerging-asia-could-face-increased-food-cost-pressures/ - Fitch Ratings predicts rising cost pressures across agribusiness and food supply chains in emerging Asia if a prolonged US-Iran war disrupts fertiliser supplies during the planting season. Reduced availability and higher prices could weaken crop yields, leading to margin pressure and elevated food prices later in 2026. Nitrogen-based urea prices have risen approximately 50% to USD700 a tonne. Countries with high food import dependence, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, face significant exposure. The World Food Programme estimates that if the conflict continues past mid-2026, 9.1 million more people in Asia could face acute food insecurity.
166. https://www.skynewsarabia.com/business/1865708-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B0%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%87%D8%B0%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A8 - Geopolitical tensions in the Hormuz Strait are increasing the risk of a global food crisis. Disruptions to energy flows, including a US naval blockade and Iranian closures, have raised oil and gas prices, impacting fertilizer production and shipping logistics. Experts warn that reduced fertilizer availability and higher transport costs will lower crop yields and drive up food prices, particularly affecting import-dependent developing nations. The World Food Programme estimates 45 million additional people could face hunger if the blockade continues. Climate factors like El Niño may exacerbate the situation.
167. https://www.skynewsarabia.com/world/1865777-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D9%84%D8%AB-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B6%D9%8A%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2 - The United Nations states that approximately one third of the world's fertiliser is currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening current agricultural seasons. UN official Da Silva warned that delays could push an additional 45 million people into hunger and famine. He announced a ready-to-implement mechanism to facilitate safe passage for these essential goods within seven days, emphasising that collective will is needed to execute the solution before it is too late.
168. https://www.lankabusinessonline.com/2026/04/23/emerging-asia-could-face-increased-food-cost-pressures/ - Fitch Ratings predicts rising cost pressures across agribusiness and food supply chains in emerging Asia if a prolonged US-Iran war disrupts fertiliser supplies during the planting season. Reduced availability and higher prices could weaken crop yields, leading to margin pressure and elevated food prices later in 2026. Nitrogen-based urea prices have risen approximately 50% to USD700 a tonne. Countries with high food import dependence, such as the Philippines, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, face significant exposure. The World Food Programme estimates that if the conflict continues past mid-2026, 9.1 million more people in Asia could face acute food insecurity.
169. https://www.siasat.com/india-tough-nut-to-crack-us-representative-as-trade-talks-wrap-up-3458699/ - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer described India as a tough nut to crack following the conclusion of three-day trade negotiations in Washington on April 22. The talks, led by US Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch and Indian Additional Secretary Darpan Jain, focused on refining the bilateral trade agreement framework announced in February. While the US agreed to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent, India seeks to recalibrate the deal after a US Supreme Court ruling invalidated reciprocal tariffs imposed under the IEEPA. Both nations aim to achieve USD 500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
170. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indias-move-to-export-5-mt-wheat-unlikely-to-impact-global-market/article70895909.ece - India has permitted an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports for the rabi marketing season, but industry experts state this will not impact the global market due to high prices and freight costs. Indian wheat is priced $22-25 a tonne higher than competitors like Russia and Ukraine, making it uncompetitive for price-sensitive destinations. High domestic stocks and quality issues from recent rains further limit export potential, with India likely remaining a secondary option unless major disruptions occur in the Black Sea region.
171. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indias-move-to-export-5-mt-wheat-unlikely-to-impact-global-market/article70895909.ece - India has permitted an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports for the rabi marketing season, but industry experts state this will not impact the global market due to high prices and freight costs. Indian wheat is priced $22-25 a tonne higher than competitors like Russia and Ukraine, making it uncompetitive for price-sensitive destinations. High domestic stocks and quality issues from recent rains further limit export potential, with India likely remaining a secondary option unless major disruptions occur in the Black Sea region.
172. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indias-move-to-export-5-mt-wheat-unlikely-to-impact-global-market/article70895909.ece - India has permitted an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports for the rabi marketing season, but industry experts state this will not impact the global market due to high prices and freight costs. Indian wheat is priced $22-25 a tonne higher than competitors like Russia and Ukraine, making it uncompetitive for price-sensitive destinations. High domestic stocks and quality issues from recent rains further limit export potential, with India likely remaining a secondary option unless major disruptions occur in the Black Sea region.
173. https://oil-store.co.uk/blog/shell-becomes-leading-lng-supplier-for-india/ - Shell has become India's top supplier of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) in March, securing four trillion British thermal units in bulk procurement for fertiliser firms. This shift addresses supply deficits caused by disruptions in Western Asia, which have impacted QatarEnergy. Shell India imported record monthly volumes, leveraging its Hazira facility in Gujarat and a fleet of chartered carriers to source gas from Nigeria, Oman, and Australia, thereby supporting the fertiliser, retail, and industrial sectors.
174. https://ria.ru/20260423/krizis-2088435220.html - The International Energy Agency has acknowledged the current global energy crisis as the largest in history, exceeding previous events in 1973, 1979, and 2022. Triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the crisis involves a loss of over 20% of global oil supply and significant disruptions to gas supplies, particularly affecting Qatar and Europe. While Asian nations with strategic reserves and access to Russian oil are relatively stable, poorer Asian countries face fuel shortages. Europe faces a severe gas crisis due to infrastructure destruction and political restrictions on Russian gas pipelines, despite available alternatives. The crisis also impacts global commodity supplies including fertilizers, aluminium, and helium.
175. https://www.rt.com/india/638955-india-to-import-urea-at/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS - India has agreed to import 2.5 million metric tons of urea at prices double those paid earlier this year, following supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Indian Potash Ltd. secured bids ranging from $935 to $959 per ton, compared to pre-war rates of approximately $510. This record purchase, the first since the conflict began in late February, aims to secure supplies ahead of the monsoon sowing season for crops like rice and corn. The move is expected to increase India's fertilizer subsidy bill and contribute to global price increases and supply strain.
176. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2026/04/23/world/fossil-fuel-and-food-security/ - Bjorn Lomborg contends that the war in the Middle East and the blocking of the Hormuz Strait highlight that access to fossil fuels, specifically for artificial fertilizers, is a greater threat to global food security than climate change. He cites UN estimates that fertilizer shortages could push 45 million people into acute hunger. Lomborg argues that radical emission cuts risk making food scarcer and more expensive, whereas economic growth and affordable fertilizer access are more effective solutions for ending hunger.
177. https://bhaskarlive.in/us-trade-rep-greer-calls-india-tough-market/ - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee that India remains a challenging market due to persistent barriers in agriculture and market access. Greer noted that New Delhi has long protected its agricultural sectors, citing distillers dried grains, soybean meal, and ethanol as key US export opportunities. While acknowledging ongoing talks with Indian trade officials in Washington, Greer indicated that progress would be gradual given India's domestic sensitivities and long-standing policy approach. The administration seeks reciprocity in trade deals, aiming for deeper structural changes despite incremental steps like past tariff reductions on bourbon.
178. https://www.maritimegateway.com/india-raises-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/ - India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports, doubling the total quota to 5 million tonnes. The Food Ministry's decision, cleared by an inter-ministerial committee, aims to address farmer distress and meet global demand from friendly nations. New-season arrivals have bolstered stocks, with rabi harvest projections at 112 million tonnes exceeding domestic needs of 105 million tonnes. The quota includes 1 million tonnes of wheat products for the diaspora. Logistics at Mundra and Kandla are preparing for a volume spike, while global buyers in Asia and Africa queue for supplies.
179. https://www.maritimegateway.com/india-raises-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/ - India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports, doubling the total quota to 5 million tonnes. The Food Ministry's decision, cleared by an inter-ministerial committee, aims to address farmer distress and meet global demand from friendly nations. New-season arrivals have bolstered stocks, with rabi harvest projections at 112 million tonnes exceeding domestic needs of 105 million tonnes. The quota includes 1 million tonnes of wheat products for the diaspora. Logistics at Mundra and Kandla are preparing for a volume spike, while global buyers in Asia and Africa queue for supplies.
180. https://dollarcollapse.com/top-three-videos-april-23-2026/ - A speaker argues that a physical disruption at the Strait of Hormuz has reduced oil flows from 13 million to 4 million barrels per day, stranding 15% of global supply. This event has caused Brent futures to trade near $100 while physical cargoes sell for $140–$170. The disruption also impacts natural gas, fertilizer, and food security, with the World Food Program projecting 45 million more people in acute food insecurity. The speaker concludes that financial instruments like ETFs are unreliable compared to physical gold and silver.
181. https://www.maritimegateway.com/india-raises-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/ - India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat exports, doubling the total quota to 5 million tonnes. The Food Ministry's decision, cleared by an inter-ministerial committee, aims to address farmer distress and meet global demand from friendly nations. New-season arrivals have bolstered stocks, with rabi harvest projections at 112 million tonnes exceeding domestic needs of 105 million tonnes. The quota includes 1 million tonnes of wheat products for the diaspora. Logistics at Mundra and Kandla are preparing for a volume spike, while global buyers in Asia and Africa queue for supplies.
182. https://www.rawstory.com/un-warns-of-significant-and-severe-food-crisis-if-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed/ - A top UN official warned of a significant and severe global food crisis if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed to fertilizer shipments. With one-third of global fertilizer flowing through the strait, its closure has disrupted supply chains, threatening planting seasons in Africa and increasing costs for US farmers. Tensions involving the US and Iran have driven fertilizer prices up by over 30% and urea prices by 47%, risking lower yields and higher wholesale food prices.
183. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/economia/a-pesar-del-clima-a-favor-proyectan-una-caida-en-la-siembra-de-trigo-por-aumentos-en-insumos-a40.phtml - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) forecasts a 3% year-on-year decline in wheat planting for the 2026/27 campaign, reaching 6.5 million hectares. Despite favourable water conditions, high input costs, particularly a 36% rise in urea prices driven by Middle East conflict, are limiting production. While global stocks remain tight due to reduced output in the US, Canada, Russia, and Australia, Argentina faces a challenging economic environment where producers are shifting towards alternative crops or barley to maintain margins.
184. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/economia/a-pesar-del-clima-a-favor-proyectan-una-caida-en-la-siembra-de-trigo-por-aumentos-en-insumos-a40.phtml - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) forecasts a 3% year-on-year decline in wheat planting for the 2026/27 campaign, reaching 6.5 million hectares. Despite favourable water conditions, high input costs, particularly a 36% rise in urea prices driven by Middle East conflict, are limiting production. While global stocks remain tight due to reduced output in the US, Canada, Russia, and Australia, Argentina faces a challenging economic environment where producers are shifting towards alternative crops or barley to maintain margins.
185. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/economia/a-pesar-del-clima-a-favor-proyectan-una-caida-en-la-siembra-de-trigo-por-aumentos-en-insumos-a40.phtml - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) forecasts a 3% year-on-year decline in wheat planting for the 2026/27 campaign, reaching 6.5 million hectares. Despite favourable water conditions, high input costs, particularly a 36% rise in urea prices driven by Middle East conflict, are limiting production. While global stocks remain tight due to reduced output in the US, Canada, Russia, and Australia, Argentina faces a challenging economic environment where producers are shifting towards alternative crops or barley to maintain margins.
186. https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/war-against-iran-could-lead-to-the-worst-global-food-crisis-since-the-70s-report/ - A report warns that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is disrupting fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz blockade, threatening the worst global food crisis since the 1970s. The conflict has halted critical shipments, causing fertilizer plant shutdowns in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, and surging urea, ammonia, and diesel prices. Experts predict food costs could rise by 20%-30%, severely impacting farmers and hungry populations globally. The situation is compounded by nations diverting food crops to biofuels, exacerbating scarcity during the critical spring planting season.
187. https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/arable/bid-to-lock-in-fertiliser-stocks-and-price-a-non-starter/ - New Zealand arable farmers attempted to forward contract fertiliser to lock in costs but were rejected by suppliers. Colin Hurst, a South Canterbury farmer, stated that while interest and labour can be contracted, fertiliser companies require buyers to purchase and store the product themselves due to financing and management complexities. This initiative aimed to improve budgeting and margin planning. Meanwhile, global fertiliser markets face supply tightness, evidenced by India's urea bids reaching US$1000 a tonne. Hurst noted that low international grain prices remain the primary driver affecting profitability in New Zealand.
188. https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/arable/grain-growers-mull-options-in-unstable-market/ - New Zealand and Australian grain growers are evaluating options to reduce planting areas due to rising input costs, tight fertiliser and fuel supplies, and global supply constraints. Reports indicate a shift towards lower-input crop varieties, potentially resulting in poorer yields. While some growers maintain planting intentions, others are switching to livestock or more reliable cereals. Government interventions in Australia include underwriting import costs for urea and fuel to support food production, highlighting vulnerability to global shocks.
189. https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/war-against-iran-could-lead-to-the-worst-global-food-crisis-since-the-70s-report/ - A report warns that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is disrupting fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz blockade, threatening the worst global food crisis since the 1970s. The conflict has halted critical shipments, causing fertilizer plant shutdowns in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, and surging urea, ammonia, and diesel prices. Experts predict food costs could rise by 20%-30%, severely impacting farmers and hungry populations globally. The situation is compounded by nations diverting food crops to biofuels, exacerbating scarcity during the critical spring planting season.
190. https://www.thefencepost.com/news/2026-spring-homeland-keeping-soil-healthy-despite-drought/ - Midwest farmers face severe drought conditions with winter moisture levels down 30 percent compared to normal. Extension Educators Todd Whitney and Hans Klopp advise skipping tillage to conserve moisture, adjusting seeding rates, and utilizing cover crops like cereal rye to build soil resiliency. Strategies include pre-watering alfalfa, diversifying crop rotations, and managing livestock grazing carefully to protect soil organic matter and water retention during the dry spring growing season.
191. https://www.thefencepost.com/news/hoeven-wants-ccc-limit-increased/ - Senate Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Hoeven stated his support for raising the Commodity Credit Corporation's annual borrowing limit from $30 billion. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins testified that the current limit is insufficient due to new commitments under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and potential overseas conflicts. Both officials agree the limit requires an update, though Rollins noted it is up to Congress to determine the legislative vehicle for the increase.
192. https://www.thefencepost.com/news/2026-spring-homeland-keeping-soil-healthy-despite-drought/ - Midwest farmers face severe drought conditions with winter moisture levels down 30 percent compared to normal. Extension Educators Todd Whitney and Hans Klopp advise skipping tillage to conserve moisture, adjusting seeding rates, and utilizing cover crops like cereal rye to build soil resiliency. Strategies include pre-watering alfalfa, diversifying crop rotations, and managing livestock grazing carefully to protect soil organic matter and water retention during the dry spring growing season.
193. https://www.news18.com/india/vegetables-wheat-more-how-iran-war-could-hit-your-grocery-budget-ws-l-10050798.html - FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warns that prolonged US-Iran conflict risks stagflation and food inflation in India. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down 90-95%, India faces higher import costs for wheat, rice, and vegetables. Global fertiliser prices have risen 50-80%, and domestic plants run at 60% capacity due to gas rationing. A 60% likelihood of below-normal monsoon further threatens yields. Torero states that if disruptions continue beyond 60 days, effects become severe, potentially reducing economic growth by 1.7%.
194. https://www.news18.com/india/vegetables-wheat-more-how-iran-war-could-hit-your-grocery-budget-ws-l-10050798.html - FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warns that prolonged US-Iran conflict risks stagflation and food inflation in India. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down 90-95%, India faces higher import costs for wheat, rice, and vegetables. Global fertiliser prices have risen 50-80%, and domestic plants run at 60% capacity due to gas rationing. A 60% likelihood of below-normal monsoon further threatens yields. Torero states that if disruptions continue beyond 60 days, effects become severe, potentially reducing economic growth by 1.7%.
195. https://www.news18.com/india/vegetables-wheat-more-how-iran-war-could-hit-your-grocery-budget-ws-l-10050798.html - FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warns that prolonged US-Iran conflict risks stagflation and food inflation in India. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down 90-95%, India faces higher import costs for wheat, rice, and vegetables. Global fertiliser prices have risen 50-80%, and domestic plants run at 60% capacity due to gas rationing. A 60% likelihood of below-normal monsoon further threatens yields. Torero states that if disruptions continue beyond 60 days, effects become severe, potentially reducing economic growth by 1.7%.
196. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/soybeans-products-see-profit-taking-corn-and-wheat-finish-mixed/ - Soybeans declined due to profit taking and technical selling amid uncertainty regarding trade negotiations with China and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Corn and wheat markets finished mixed. Corn prices were influenced by Midwest planting delays due to rain, global harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil, and ethanol production data. Wheat markets reacted to drought concerns in the hard red winter region and weather forecasts for the Plains, while monitoring conditions in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, and other global growing regions.
197. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/usdas-rollins-signals-possible-action-soon-on-fertilizer-prices/ - USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins testified before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that the administration is considering an all-government approach to address fertilizer costs. She indicated an announcement could be released soon, potentially including additional funding. Rollins highlighted national security concerns regarding reliance on China and Russia for fertilizer production due to offshoring over the last decade.
198. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/ustr-weighs-in-on-usmca-updates-prior-to-july-review/ - The U.S. Trade Representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer, expressed a desire for changes to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to better support American agriculture. Greer noted ongoing meetings with Mexico regarding Rules of Origin and economic security prior to the scheduled July joint review. Meanwhile, U.S. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith highlighted concerns over the lack of enforcement, while Ranking Member Richard Neal indicated challenges in negotiations with Canada, suggesting a potential miss of the July deadline.
199. https://www.ibjonline.com/2026/04/22/new-survey-finds-most-u-s-farmers-cant-afford-fertilizer/ - A nationwide survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation reveals 70 percent of US farmers cannot afford sufficient fertilizer for the 2026 season. Conducted in April, the study of over 5,700 respondents highlights severe financial strain, with 94 percent reporting worsened or stagnant financial situations. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have driven nitrogen and fuel costs up significantly. Consequently, farmers are reducing acreage, spreading fertilizer thinner, or switching crops, raising concerns about potential yield reductions and food supply impacts.
200. https://www.wwbl.com/2026/04/22/game-changer-ustrs-julie-callahan-says-trumps-tariffs-slashed-us-ag-trade-deficit-by-4-75b/ - Julie Callahan, Chief Agricultural Negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), stated that the Trump administration's tariff strategy reduced the US agricultural trade deficit by $4.75 billion between January 2025 and January 2026. The deficit fell from $6.5 billion to $1.75 billion. Callahan described the reciprocal tariffs as a game changer and affirmed the policy remains a central pillar of US economic strategy despite legal challenges.
201. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/not-just-fuel-australia-also-relies-on-gulf-urea-supplies/ - Australia imports approximately 95 percent of its urea, with 65 to 70 percent sourced from Middle Eastern producers including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. This heavy reliance on the Gulf region creates a strategic vulnerability where instability in the area directly impacts Australian food production, transport systems, and economic stability. Unlike fuel, urea is not subject to a Minimum Stockholding Obligation or strategic reserve, leaving supply dependent on commercial imports. Recent price jumps in early 2026 were driven by natural gas constraints and production caps in the Gulf. Experts recommend establishing a government system to track urea prices alongside maritime insurance and freight rates to identify early warning signals of supply disruptions before they escalate into broader economic risks.
202. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sluggish-wheat-procurement-in-madhya-pradesh-drags-down-indias-central-pool-sourcing-by-16-10650892/ - India's wheat procurement for the Central pool is 16% lower than last year due to sluggish operations in Madhya Pradesh. As of April 20, 114.29 lakh metric tonnes were procured across 10 states, against a target of 303 lakh metric tonnes. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan flagged challenges in MP and Uttar Pradesh, directing officials to resolve issues with slot booking and registration immediately. While Punjab and Haryana met significant procurement targets, MP procured only 7.25 lakh metric tonnes against 15.66 lakh metric tonnes of arrivals, a sharp decline from the previous year.
203. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sluggish-wheat-procurement-in-madhya-pradesh-drags-down-indias-central-pool-sourcing-by-16-10650892/ - India's wheat procurement for the Central pool is 16% lower than last year due to sluggish operations in Madhya Pradesh. As of April 20, 114.29 lakh metric tonnes were procured across 10 states, against a target of 303 lakh metric tonnes. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan flagged challenges in MP and Uttar Pradesh, directing officials to resolve issues with slot booking and registration immediately. While Punjab and Haryana met significant procurement targets, MP procured only 7.25 lakh metric tonnes against 15.66 lakh metric tonnes of arrivals, a sharp decline from the previous year.
204. https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A/%D8%B4%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7/5265467-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%80%D9%82%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%AA%D9%83%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%A9 - Experts warn of a potential surge in Egyptian food prices due to escalating regional tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up agricultural input costs. Global fertilizer and feed prices have risen, with urea costs in Egypt exceeding 40,000 Egyptian pounds per ton compared to 28,000 pre-conflict. Feed prices also increased by 4,000 to 5,000 pounds per ton in April. These factors contribute to Egypt's annual inflation rate reaching 15.2% in cities, the highest in ten months. While the government subsidizes fertilizers for half of farmers, experts fear local manufacturers may shift to exports if the conflict persists, further impacting food availability and prices.
205. https://globalnews.ca/news/11809434/saskatchewan-farmers-battle-higher-costs-ahead-of-spring-seeding/ - Saskatchewan farmers are confronting significant financial pressure as fertilizer and diesel prices surge, driven partly by the Middle East conflict, while crop prices for wheat, flax, and lentils decline. Diesel costs have risen 37% and urea fertilizer 45% since last year. Industry experts warn that tight margins and high debt levels pose severe risks, forcing farmers to carefully manage budgets. While some express cautious optimism due to potential trade breakthroughs with China and India, the sector faces a challenging growing season where profitability depends heavily on weather conditions.
206. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/india-to-buy-urea-at-near-double-pre-war-prices-amid-supply-disruption-126042201399_1.html - India has agreed to purchase 2.5 million tons of urea at prices nearly 90 per cent higher than pre-conflict levels due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Indian Potash Ltd will secure the nitrogen-based fertilizer for delivery on the west and east coasts at approximately $935 to $959 per ton. This tender occurs ahead of the monsoon sowing season for crops like rice and corn, with global prices surging as the Strait of Hormuz closure impacts regional production.
207. https://canadiangrocer.com/mr-carney-which-cusma-strategy-it-week - Analysis suggests Canada's trade posture toward the United States has become unpredictable under Governor Mark Carney, shifting from promised partnership to framing reliance as a weakness. While a new advisory council includes experts like Ken Seitz and Michael Harvey, it omits primary producers and Western Canadian voices. This policy ambiguity creates business risk for the agri-food sector, which exports 75% of its goods to the US, prompting companies to prepare for a potential post-CUSMA environment.
208. https://www.producer.com/opinion/war-in-the-middle-east-becomes-inflection-point-for-agriculture/ - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is identified as a potential inflection point for global agriculture, driven by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and supply chains. High fertilizer and diesel prices, coupled with potential long-term hostilities, threaten to diminish net returns for grain farmers and alter production strategies. Analysts suggest a shift towards nitrogen-efficient crops and domestic production facilities in North America to mitigate future risks, while political instability in the region continues to impact global commodity markets.
209. https://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/eu-to-cut-electricity-taxes-and-relax-state-aid-rules-in-bid-to-ease-energy-price-shock/a1142495169.html - The European Commission announced measures to reduce electricity taxes below natural gas levels and relax state aid rules to mitigate surging energy prices linked to the Iran war. Proposals include incentivising a switch to electric systems, coordinating gas storage fills, and mapping jet fuel supplies to prevent shortages. Governments may receive guidance to subsidise fuel and fertiliser costs for specific sectors, while the Commission aims to amend tax rules in May requiring unanimous member state approval.
210. https://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/257381.html - At the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, commodity trading leaders stated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a structural shock rather than a short-term disruption. Since late February strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, approximately 12 million barrels per day have been removed from the global oil balance. Experts warn that restoring damaged infrastructure will take years, potentially causing a global recession if the strait is not reopened by late July. The crisis threatens to trigger a broader economic downturn, affecting fertilizer production, food security, and copper output, with shortages expected to be most acute in Asia, Africa, and Australia.
211. https://globalnews.ca/news/11812378/canada-doubling-down-globalization-at-odds-u-s-trade-goal-greer/ - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee that Canada is pursuing a globalization strategy at odds with US trade goals as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) renewal deadline approaches. Greer criticized Prime Minister Mark Carney for seeking to diversify trade relationships, including with China, while the US aims to strengthen rules of origin to prevent subsidized imports. Carney declined to offer additional concessions, and US officials indicated that renegotiation or alternative border controls are likely if commitments are not met.
212. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/22/mouse-plague-hits-wa-grain-farmers-as-numbers-surge-in-sa-you-literally-cant-get-away-from-them - Mouse numbers in Western Australia have reached plague proportions, with reports of 3,000 to 4,000 burrows per hectare near Geraldton and in the wheatbelt. South Australia also faces extremely high mouse numbers. The situation poses significant risks to grain growers, livestock health, and human safety due to pesticide exposure and disease. CSIRO research indicates female mice can breed rapidly, potentially causing devastating economic damage similar to the 2020-21 outbreak. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins and industry leaders are calling for urgent access to higher dose zinc phosphide baits to control the infestation during the critical seeding period.
213. https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/us-farmers-fertilizer-costs-planting-crisis-2026/911802.html - American farmers report a grim outlook for the upcoming planting season as fertilizer and fuel costs spike, squeezing profit margins. A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation indicates over 70% of farmers cannot afford necessary fertilizer, with 60% predicting worse finances. High input costs, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, have forced many to reduce acreage or skip pre-booking. Despite $12 billion in existing assistance, farm leaders urge the White House and Congress for further relief, citing the issue as a national security concern.
214. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-decides-to-import-25-million-tonnes-of-urea-at-935-959tonne/article70893939.ece - Indian Potash (IPL) received government approval to import 2.5 million tonnes of urea at rates of $935 per tonne for the West Coast and $959 per tonne for the East Coast. Shortlisted suppliers include Aditya Birla Global Trading, AMEROPA ASIA, Valency, Dreymoor, and Chasemax. Bidders agreed to source supplies from regions outside West Asia, such as Russia, Algeria, Nigeria, Egypt, Indonesia, and Malaysia, to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. This decision follows a previous tender by RCF in February where offers were significantly lower, marking an 84 per cent price increase in two months due to geopolitical factors.
215. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-22-2026/ - US President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran, though peace talks remain on hold. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping following Iranian attacks on vessels. The International Energy Agency warns this conflict is creating the worst energy crisis in history, combining petrol and gas shortages with Russian supply cuts. Russia has capped fertilizer exports until December, exacerbating global food security fears. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new advisory council to address US trade tensions and tariffs.
216. https://cbn.co.za/industry-news/agriculture-news/wheat-farming-in-south-africa-crisis-threatens-sector-sustainability/ - Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen states that wheat farming in South Africa is no longer economically sustainable due to rising input costs, volatile global markets, and administrative delays in tariff adjustments. Farmers in the Western Cape, Free State, and Northern Cape face survival challenges as they harvest expensive crops into cheaper markets. The government plans to automate tariff adjustments to restore predictability. While domestic production struggles to meet consumption needs, export opportunities for maize to Japan highlight the quality of South African grain.
217. https://www.newsdakota.com/2026/04/22/lawmakers-raise-concerns-over-foreign-ownership-of-u-s-farmland/ - Federal lawmakers in the United States are intensifying scrutiny of foreign ownership of US farmland, citing national security and food supply control concerns. Discussions focus particularly on investments tied to China, though officials note foreign entities from several countries hold agricultural land across the US. Members of Congress are considering new restrictions and enhanced reporting requirements to improve transparency. Supporters argue tighter oversight is needed to protect strategic assets, while agricultural economists caution that foreign ownership represents a small share of total US farmland despite its geopolitical significance.
218. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/weathers/a-more-active-pattern-getting-underway-on-parts-of-the-plains-milder-across-the-corn-belt/ - A more active weather pattern is developing across parts of the Plains, while milder temperatures prevail across the Corn Belt. Dry conditions in the Midwest are aiding soil drying, though Michigan sugar beet planting lags significantly behind the five-year average. In the Plains, winter wheat conditions have deteriorated in Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas following a recent cold snap. The South remains extremely dry, and the West is experiencing precipitation from an approaching Pacific storm system with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.
219. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/weathers/a-more-active-pattern-getting-underway-on-parts-of-the-plains-milder-across-the-corn-belt/ - A more active weather pattern is developing across parts of the Plains, while milder temperatures prevail across the Corn Belt. Dry conditions in the Midwest are aiding soil drying, though Michigan sugar beet planting lags significantly behind the five-year average. In the Plains, winter wheat conditions have deteriorated in Nebraska, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas following a recent cold snap. The South remains extremely dry, and the West is experiencing precipitation from an approaching Pacific storm system with above-normal temperatures elsewhere.
220. https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260422-food-security-why-guterres-un-plan-get-fertiliser-hormuz-stalling-iran-war - UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has failed to secure full support for a proposal to establish a UN task force ensuring safe maritime transit for fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz. Announced in March, the initiative aims to mitigate acute hunger affecting millions in vulnerable countries like Sudan and Somalia by opening a corridor despite the ongoing conflict. While Iran's envoy stated UN ships are permitted to pass, key Gulf Cooperation Council members and the US have remained silent or expressed reservations regarding the mechanism's scope and security implications. With the planting season ending in late May, the UN warns that continued disruption could lead to catastrophic food shortages globally.
221. https://en.antaranews.com/news/413313/four-countries-ask-for-indonesias-urea-over-750000-tons-sought - Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman announced that India, Australia, the Philippines, and Brazil have requested at least 750,000 tons of Indonesian urea fertilizer. India sought 500,000 tons, while Australia agreed to 250,000 tons in the first batch. With domestic demand at 6 million tons against a 7.8 million ton capacity, Indonesia can allocate one million tons for export. This development supports a reported Rp200 trillion trade surplus in 2025.
222. https://tass.com/economy/2120825 - Russia's wheat exports increased by 14% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching over 9.1 million tons worth more than $2 billion. According to the federal center Agroexport, the top importers by value were Egypt, Turkey, Sudan, Kenya, and Israel. Exports were sent to more than 45 countries during this period.
223. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161335.html - Ukraine's Ministry for Communities and Territories Development launched preparations for a public-private partnership project covering part of the Chornomorsk Maritime Merchandise Port grain terminal and assets of the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority. The order mandates an asset inventory within one month and prohibits unauthorized transfers or leases of the involved assets. Preparations include exploring international financial involvement and drafting a feasibility study, marking a step towards the first port sector concession tender since the full-scale invasion.
224. https://knnindia.co.in/news/newsdetails/sectors/exportimports/fieo-advises-exporters-to-negotiate-tariff-refunds-with-us-buyers - The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has advised Indian exporters to negotiate a share of US tariff refunds with their American buyers. Following the US Supreme Court's invalidation of a reciprocal tariff regime on February 20, 2026, refunds are being processed exclusively for US importers. FIEO President S C Ralhan stated that while exporters lack a direct legal claim, those with strong buyer relationships may secure a portion of the estimated USD 12 billion linked to Indian exports. Industry participants are already engaging in discussions to explore cost-sharing arrangements based on absorbed tariff burdens.
225. https://bitcoinworld.co.in/russia-bitcoin-trade-legalization-july/ - Effective July 1, 2025, Russia will legalize Bitcoin and select stablecoins for international trade settlements to circumvent Western sanctions. The legislation creates a licensed corridor model where registered exporters and importers must use authorized digital asset service providers overseen by the Central Bank of Russia. Domestic payments remain prohibited. The policy targets energy, agriculture, and raw material sectors, allowing transactions with neutral or friendly nations outside traditional banking channels like SWIFT. Real-time reporting and anti-money laundering protocols are mandated.
226. https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/india-faces-food-inflation-risks-ahead-of-kharif-despite-usd-18-6-bn-subsidy-as-hormuz-disruption-hits-supplies-fao-chief-economist/130441725 - FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warns that India faces rising food inflation risks ahead of the Kharif sowing season due to global supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict. Despite a USD 18.6 billion fertilizer subsidy for FY2026-27, the disruption at the Hormuz Strait threatens input availability, potentially increasing import costs and reducing domestic fertilizer supply. This situation places pressure on prices for wheat, rice, and vegetables, while mounting fiscal pressures remain a concern for the government.
227. https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/india-faces-food-inflation-risks-ahead-of-kharif-despite-usd-18-6-bn-subsidy-as-hormuz-disruption-hits-supplies-fao-chief-economist/130441725 - FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warns that India faces rising food inflation risks ahead of the Kharif sowing season due to global supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran conflict. Despite a USD 18.6 billion fertilizer subsidy for FY2026-27, the disruption at the Hormuz Strait threatens input availability, potentially increasing import costs and reducing domestic fertilizer supply. This situation places pressure on prices for wheat, rice, and vegetables, while mounting fiscal pressures remain a concern for the government.
228. https://www.unian.ua/economics/agro/viyna-v-irani-svit-na-mezhi-prodovolchoji-katastrofi-13357599.html - Financial Times reports that disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are escalating the risk of a global food shock. Reduced LNG flows are curtailing fertilizer production, while shipping bottlenecks at the Panama Canal are increasing transport costs for grain. The IMF warns that global food prices will continue to rise, posing severe risks to vulnerable populations, even if the conflict concludes. Governments may hoard reserves, further tightening global availability.
229. https://www.unian.ua/economics/agro/viyna-v-irani-svit-na-mezhi-prodovolchoji-katastrofi-13357599.html - Financial Times reports that disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are escalating the risk of a global food shock. Reduced LNG flows are curtailing fertilizer production, while shipping bottlenecks at the Panama Canal are increasing transport costs for grain. The IMF warns that global food prices will continue to rise, posing severe risks to vulnerable populations, even if the conflict concludes. Governments may hoard reserves, further tightening global availability.
230. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/chicago-grains-rise-with-crop-weather-and-iran-war-in-focus-pyu0nw6p - Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean futures increased on Wednesday due to U.S. crop weather risks and uncertainty surrounding peace talks to end the Iran war. While ample global supply, particularly from South America, kept prices in check, potential showers could hamper planting, and drought persists in some wheat areas. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from the previous week. Crude oil prices also rose amid reports of attacks on container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brisk export demand further supported U.S. corn prices.
231. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/chicago-grains-rise-with-crop-weather-and-iran-war-in-focus-pyu0nw6p - Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean futures increased on Wednesday due to U.S. crop weather risks and uncertainty surrounding peace talks to end the Iran war. While ample global supply, particularly from South America, kept prices in check, potential showers could hamper planting, and drought persists in some wheat areas. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from the previous week. Crude oil prices also rose amid reports of attacks on container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brisk export demand further supported U.S. corn prices.
232. https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/wheat-futures-continue-to-creep-up/ - May 2026 wheat futures increased by £3/t to £176.15/t by April 17, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Black Sea, and US weather risks. Chicago wheat futures rose 3.6% on dry weather concerns, while Paris milling wheat fell 1.8% due to a stronger euro. Production areas may shrink globally; Western Australia forecasts a 17% drop in wheat area, and France anticipates a 10-15% maize reduction. Conversely, Argentina expects a record maize harvest. AHDB warns reduced competitiveness against other crops could lower future cereal production.
233. https://climateimpactcompany.com/india-summer-2026-outlook-wet-iod-runs-some-interference-on-dry-el-nino-climate-at-times-during-the-india-monsoon-season-2/ - The Climate Impact Company issued a summer 2026 climate forecast for India on April 22, 2026. The outlook predicts a mostly dry monsoon season due to a strong El Nino event, which is expected to rival historical intense episodes. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) is anticipated to provide some localized wet influences, the drying effect of El Nino is projected to dominate, particularly in Central and South India. The forecast contrasts with ECMWF models, which predict a failed wet monsoon.
234. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/global/chicago-grains-rise-with-crop-weather-and-iran-war-in-focus-pyu0nw6p - Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean futures increased on Wednesday due to U.S. crop weather risks and uncertainty surrounding peace talks to end the Iran war. While ample global supply, particularly from South America, kept prices in check, potential showers could hamper planting, and drought persists in some wheat areas. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from the previous week. Crude oil prices also rose amid reports of attacks on container ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brisk export demand further supported U.S. corn prices.
235. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3350988/asia-braces-food-shortages-super-el-nino-iran-war-effects-collide?utm_source=rss_feed - Scientists warn Asia faces dangerous food production conditions due to a super El Nino suppressing rainfall and the war on Iran driving up energy and fertiliser costs. India forecasts a below-average monsoon, while Australia reports planting acreage at a seven-year low due to dryness and input shortages. Fertiliser prices have soared as natural gas supplies from Qatar drop to near zero. Analyst Gnanasekar Thiagarajan of Commtrendz Research predicts widespread dryness across South and Southeast Asia during the planting season.
236. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3350988/asia-braces-food-shortages-super-el-nino-iran-war-effects-collide?utm_source=rss_feed - Scientists warn Asia faces dangerous food production conditions due to a super El Nino suppressing rainfall and the war on Iran driving up energy and fertiliser costs. India forecasts a below-average monsoon, while Australia reports planting acreage at a seven-year low due to dryness and input shortages. Fertiliser prices have soared as natural gas supplies from Qatar drop to near zero. Analyst Gnanasekar Thiagarajan of Commtrendz Research predicts widespread dryness across South and Southeast Asia during the planting season.
237. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3350988/asia-braces-food-shortages-super-el-nino-iran-war-effects-collide?utm_source=rss_feed - Scientists warn Asia faces dangerous food production conditions due to a super El Nino suppressing rainfall and the war on Iran driving up energy and fertiliser costs. India forecasts a below-average monsoon, while Australia reports planting acreage at a seven-year low due to dryness and input shortages. Fertiliser prices have soared as natural gas supplies from Qatar drop to near zero. Analyst Gnanasekar Thiagarajan of Commtrendz Research predicts widespread dryness across South and Southeast Asia during the planting season.
238. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3350988/asia-braces-food-shortages-super-el-nino-iran-war-effects-collide?utm_source=rss_feed - Scientists warn Asia faces dangerous food production conditions due to a super El Nino suppressing rainfall and the war on Iran driving up energy and fertiliser costs. India forecasts a below-average monsoon, while Australia reports planting acreage at a seven-year low due to dryness and input shortages. Fertiliser prices have soared as natural gas supplies from Qatar drop to near zero. Analyst Gnanasekar Thiagarajan of Commtrendz Research predicts widespread dryness across South and Southeast Asia during the planting season.
239. https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1188350/world/region/fertilizer-shipments-cannot-be-stopped-due-to-the-war-un - United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has established a task force led by Jorge Moreira da Silva to facilitate the safe passage of fertilisers and raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism aims to prevent a major food crisis affecting vulnerable countries like Sudan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka during the critical planting season. The UN Office for Project Services will deploy a one-stop platform within seven days if combatants allow passage, ensuring humanitarian needs are met without compromising freedom of navigation principles.
240. https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/tech/daniel-yergin-geopolitical-tensions-are-reshaping-global-energy-markets-the-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-marks-a-pivotal-moment-and-energy-security-is-shifting-from-oil-to-electricity/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=daniel-yergin-geopolitical-tensions-are-reshaping-global-energy-markets-the-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-marks-a-pivotal-moment-and-energy-security-is-shifting-from-oil-to-electricity - Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, states that geopolitical tensions are driving structural shifts in global energy markets. He highlights the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a pivotal moment marking the 'mother of all supply chain shocks.' Yergin notes that energy security is shifting from oil and gas to electricity, with natural gas gaining importance for generation. He warns that risk has been underpriced in markets and that the closure impacts critical commodities beyond oil, including helium and fertilizers. The article discusses the disconnect between futures markets and physical supply challenges.
241. https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1188350/world/region/fertilizer-shipments-cannot-be-stopped-due-to-the-war-un - United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has established a task force led by Jorge Moreira da Silva to facilitate the safe passage of fertilisers and raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz. The mechanism aims to prevent a major food crisis affecting vulnerable countries like Sudan, Somalia, and Sri Lanka during the critical planting season. The UN Office for Project Services will deploy a one-stop platform within seven days if combatants allow passage, ensuring humanitarian needs are met without compromising freedom of navigation principles.
242. https://focus.ua/voennye-novosti/751572-ataka-na-odessu-vs-rf-udarili-po-portam-udarnymi-bpla-foto - In the early hours of 22 April, Russian Armed Forces drones attacked Odessa, Ukraine, damaging port infrastructure. The strike caused a fire in a cargo ship's hold and damaged warehouses and production facilities. Approximately 50 firefighters extinguished the blaze. No casualties were reported. The Administration of Sea Ports of Ukraine confirmed the ports remain operational despite safety restrictions. Previous attacks in April 2026 resulted in civilian deaths.
243. https://www.btc-echo.de/schlagzeilen/russland-ebnet-weg-fuer-krypto-zahlungen-im-aussenhandel-229277/ - The Russian State Duma has passed a draft law enabling cryptocurrency payments for cross-border trade to circumvent international sanctions. The Central Bank of Russia will act as the regulatory authority, licensing exchanges and brokers. While domestic use of crypto remains prohibited, the measure aims to ensure goods flow despite restrictions on the traditional SWIFT system.
244. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/sluggish-wheat-procurement-madhya-pradesh-drags-down-nation-overall-sourcing-quantity-by-16-10649807/ - Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan flagged challenges in Madhya Pradesh's wheat procurement, which has slowed significantly compared to last year. As of April 20, national wheat procurement reached 114.29 lakh metric tonnes, 16% lower than the previous year's figure. Madhya Pradesh reported only 7.25 lakh metric tonnes procured against 15.66 lakh metric tonnes arrived, a stark contrast to 47 lakh metric tonnes last year. Uttar Pradesh also saw a decline. Chouhan directed officials to resolve issues regarding slot booking and registration immediately.
245. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/04/22/extreme-heat-is-rewriting-food-security-the-best-fixes-are-already-within-reach/ - A joint FAO-WMO report released on April 22 states that extreme heat is currently reducing crop yields, increasing livestock mortality, and threatening fisheries. The report highlights that for every 1°C of warming, maize and wheat yields could drop by 4–10%. It notes that beef cattle mortality reached 24% during recent heatwaves and marine heatwaves caused $6.6 billion in fisheries losses. The article emphasises the need for immediate adaptation measures, including early warning systems, heat-tolerant varieties, and worker safety protocols, to mitigate these impacts.
246. https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2026/0422/1569492-ukraine-russia/ - Russian drones attacked infrastructure at Ukraine's Odesa port overnight, damaging berths, warehouses, and railway facilities. A cargo ship hold was hit, causing a fire, though no injuries were reported and operations continued. Separately, a Ukrainian drone attack on a building in Syzran, Russia, killed two people and injured 12. The Ukrainian air force reported 215 drones launched against the country since 6pm, with 189 neutralised.
247. https://lawnlove.com/blog/higher-fertilizer-prices/ - Fertilizer prices have risen 30% to 50% since late February 2026, driven by the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran which effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carries one-third of global fertilizer trade, and its closure cut off major suppliers. Urea prices jumped 34% in March 2026, reaching $838 per ton. Experts advise using leftover fertilizer, conducting soil tests, or switching to organic alternatives to manage costs while supply lines remain disrupted.
248. https://textalks.com/us-tariff-refunds-begin-but-exporters-abroad-will-need-to-negotiate-for-any-share/ - The US has initiated the first phase of refunds for tariffs ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court on 20 February 2026. Administered by US Customs and Border Protection via the CAPE platform, the process covers approximately $127 billion. Refunds are directed to US importers of record, not foreign suppliers. Consequently, exporters in nations such as India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam must negotiate privately with US buyers to secure any portion of the recovered funds, rather than receiving direct reimbursement from the US government.
249. https://zn.ua/war/nochnaja-ataka-na-odesskuju-oblast-pod-udarom-okazalis-obekty-portovoj-infrastruktury.html - In the night of 22 April, Russian forces attacked Odessa region using strike drones. Odessa Regional State Administration head Oleksy Kiper reported damage to port infrastructure despite air defence activity. Fires were extinguished quickly and no casualties occurred. Vice-Premier Mykhailo Kuleba confirmed damage to piers, warehouses, railway infrastructure, and port operator facilities. This follows a similar attack on 18 April.
250. https://www.beefcentral.com/news/govt-to-underwrite-first-shipments-of-fertilizer-imports/ - The Australian government announced it will partner with CSBP and Incitec Pivot to underwrite fertilizer shipments into the country. Utilizing Strategic Reserve powers finalized in March, Export Finance Australia will back overseas purchases to lock in supplies and ensure faster delivery. Minister Julie Collins stated this supports food security and helps manage global impacts of the Middle East conflict. While initial planting season supplies are secured, a shortfall persists for future months, prompting efforts to source fertilizer outside the Middle East.
251. https://www.beefcentral.com/news/govt-to-underwrite-first-shipments-of-fertilizer-imports/ - The Australian government announced it will partner with CSBP and Incitec Pivot to underwrite fertilizer shipments into the country. Utilizing Strategic Reserve powers finalized in March, Export Finance Australia will back overseas purchases to lock in supplies and ensure faster delivery. Minister Julie Collins stated this supports food security and helps manage global impacts of the Middle East conflict. While initial planting season supplies are secured, a shortfall persists for future months, prompting efforts to source fertilizer outside the Middle East.
252. https://lenta.ru/news/2026/04/22/na-ukraine-rasskazali-podrobnosti-o-nochnyh-udarah-vs-rossii-po-odesse/ - On the night of 22 April, Russian Armed Forces launched a drone attack on Odessa, Ukraine. According to Ukrainian Vice-Premier Alexey Kuleba, the strike targeted port infrastructure, resulting in fires and damage to piers, warehouse facilities, railway infrastructure, and port operator objects. This incident follows a broader Russian offensive on multiple Ukrainian regions the day prior.
253. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indonesia-in-talks-to-export-1-million-tonnes-of-fertiliser-to-india-others/article70891267.ece - Indonesia is in talks to export 1 million tonnes of fertiliser to India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Brazil, according to cabinet secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya. This commitment follows a previous shipment of 250,000 tonnes to Australia. Indonesia's domestic urea production stands at 7.8 million tonnes against a need of 6.3 million tonnes. UN trade agency officials note that fertiliser shortages driven by the Iran war remain a pressing concern for developing nations.
254. https://tchadinfos.com/2026/04/21/guerre-au-moyen-orient-la-banque-mondiale-alerte-sur-une-aggravation-imminente-de-linsecurite-alimentaire/ - Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank, warned that the Middle East conflict could push millions more into acute food insecurity. Rising oil and fertilizer prices are reducing global cereal production, prompting fears of export restrictions. The World Bank notes the crisis is already acute in Asia and could rapidly spread to Africa if the conflict continues without a truce.
255. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2026/04/22/8031214/ - Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in the Odesa region of Ukraine during the night of 22 April 2026 using unmanned aerial vehicles. Despite active air defence operations, strikes caused damage to port objects, including piers, warehouse buildings, railway infrastructure, and port operator facilities. Fires were extinguished by rescue services. No casualties were reported. Recovery operations are ongoing. The information was confirmed by Odesa Regional State Administration head Oleh Kyper and Vice-Premier Mykhailo Kulesha.
256. https://www.morningagclips.com/will-recent-cold-temperatures-hurt-winter-wheat/ - Laura Lindsey from Ohio State University Extension evaluates potential freeze damage to winter wheat in Ohio following recent cold temperatures. The article details that damage depends on temperature, duration, and growth stage, noting significant yield reductions at Feekes 8 stage if crown temperatures drop between 25°F and 28°F. Farmers are advised to inspect crops for discoloration or twisted flag leaves once temperatures rise, as landscape features create varying micro-climates affecting damage severity.
257. https://www.morningagclips.com/will-recent-cold-temperatures-hurt-winter-wheat/ - Laura Lindsey from Ohio State University Extension evaluates potential freeze damage to winter wheat in Ohio following recent cold temperatures. The article details that damage depends on temperature, duration, and growth stage, noting significant yield reductions at Feekes 8 stage if crown temperatures drop between 25°F and 28°F. Farmers are advised to inspect crops for discoloration or twisted flag leaves once temperatures rise, as landscape features create varying micro-climates affecting damage severity.
258. https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/04/albos-fuel-plan-drive-to-a-job-you-dont-have/ - Australia's diesel and fertiliser supplies face tighter conditions due to the Iran War, despite stable petrol supplies. While Asian and European nations have drawn down reserves, Drew Morland, CEO of iOR, warns that global spot market prices at historic levels will soon affect Australia's ability to access diesel for agriculture, mining, and logistics.
259. https://dailypioneer.com/news/how-us-iran-tensions-threaten-the-global-food-energy-water-balance - The conflict between the United States and Iran poses a systemic threat to global food, energy, and water security by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices increase fertiliser and transport costs, reducing agricultural productivity and causing food wastage. The crisis highlights structural weaknesses in supply chains, disproportionately affecting import-dependent nations. Experts urge diversified sourcing, robust food corridors, and renewable energy adoption to build resilience against escalating humanitarian risks.
260. https://abc17news.com/weather/insider-blog/2026/04/21/wetter-spring-brings-relief-to-missouri-farmers-but-the-effects-of-drought-linger/ - Most of Missouri is now drought-free following a wetter-than-normal spring, though remnants of recent dry years persist in some areas. Andy Clay, Vice President of the Missouri Farm Bureau, notes that while reservoir levels remain low compared to historical data, recent rainfall has facilitated earlier planting. Despite a record-hot start to spring requiring extra crop insurance, the current season is considered good. However, the bootheel region remains in extreme drought. Livestock prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and sustained demand.
261. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/21/agmarket-net-early-morning-market-analysis-4-21-26/ - On April 21, 2026, US agricultural futures displayed mixed trading activity. Corn prices fell slightly while soybeans and wheat rose. Corn and soybean planting progress aligned with expectations, though wheat crop ratings declined by 4% due to poor conditions in the southern plains. The Midwest is drying out to facilitate planting, while the southern plains await beneficial rains to prevent further crop rating erosion. Market analysts anticipate a mixed trade for the day.
262. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/21/agmarket-net-early-morning-market-analysis-4-21-26/ - On April 21, 2026, US agricultural futures displayed mixed trading activity. Corn prices fell slightly while soybeans and wheat rose. Corn and soybean planting progress aligned with expectations, though wheat crop ratings declined by 4% due to poor conditions in the southern plains. The Midwest is drying out to facilitate planting, while the southern plains await beneficial rains to prevent further crop rating erosion. Market analysts anticipate a mixed trade for the day.
263. https://elcomercio.pe/economia/mundo/trigo-maiz-y-soya-empiezan-a-ganar-dinamismo-despues-de-varios-meses-de-precios-bajos-l-ultimas-noticia/ - Scotiabank reports that wheat, corn, and soybean prices in the Chicago Board of Trade are showing renewed momentum following months of low levels. Wheat and corn gains are supported by geopolitical risks regarding the fragile truce between the US and Iran, alongside supply concerns and US crop conditions affected by drought. Soybeans also benefit from war concerns but remain stable due to slow demand growth. Global production estimates were revised upward by the USDA, though Chinese soybean imports remain below 2025 levels. The market remains sensitive to Middle East conflict developments.
264. https://www.producer.com/opinion/canada-must-fight-back-as-europe-escalates-trade-threat/ - The European Commission introduced the Food and Feed Omnibus bill in December, proposing to ban imports of crops grown with pesticides outlawed in Europe. This move threatens Canadian agricultural exports, including canola seed and durum wheat, by effectively enforcing zero-tolerance levels for certain pesticides. Industry experts warn the regulation could force global farmers to adopt organic practices to access the European market, posing a significant risk to Canadian producers who are already seeking to diversify away from unstable US markets.
265. https://www.eenews.net/articles/no-relief-in-sight-on-fertilizer-prices-as-iran-war-ceasefire-nears-end/ - Fertilizer costs show no sign of easing despite the impending end of a temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Market experts and farmers express pessimism regarding future shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Following a US seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship, traffic in the Persian Gulf may remain restricted for weeks or months, sustaining high global trade costs.
266. https://www.indiasnews.net/news/279002899/mp-satnam-sandhu-takes-stock-of-wheat-procurement-at-dera-bassi-samrala-mandis-pace-picks-up-after-centre-relaxation-on-norms - MP Satnam Singh Sandhu visited Dera Bassi and Samrala mandis in Punjab to assess wheat procurement operations following the Centre's relaxation of norms. The Union Government's decision, made after a joint representation by Sandhu and Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu to Prahlad Joshi, addressed difficulties caused by weather-affected crops. Wheat procurement surged from 2.47 LMT to over 34.16 LMT in five days. Farmers expressed satisfaction with the improved pace and timely payments, citing relief from distress selling.
267. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/purdue-economist-geopolitical-tensions-igniting-long-term-concerns-about-fertilizer-prices/ - Joana Colussi, an ag economist at Purdue University, states that ongoing conflict in Iran has driven fertilizer input costs up over 30 percent since late February. She warns that prices are unlikely to fall quickly, potentially causing availability issues during the current crop season and remaining high through the 2027 growing season. Meanwhile, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden notes the department is collaborating with the FTC and DOJ to address these price hikes while the US works to expand domestic production.
268. https://www.allagnews.com/fertilizer-dependence-risks-rise-amid-middle-east-conflict/ - Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are exposing agriculture's reliance on global fertilizer supply chains, driving up input costs and squeezing producer margins. Research from Purdue University highlights risks associated with disruptions to key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and Brazil face significant exposure due to heavy import dependence for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, with Brazilian producers facing particularly sharp disadvantages. Shipping restrictions in the Persian Gulf region have already contributed to higher fertilizer and energy prices.
269. https://www.bahrainnews.net/news/279002961/uae-affirms-importance-of-ensuring-freedom-of-navigation-facilitating-supply-chains-to-secure-agricultural-inputs-stability-of-regional-global-food-security - The UAE, serving as Chair of the 38th FAO Regional Conference for the Near East and North Africa in Rome, reaffirmed food security as a sovereign pillar. Minister Dr Amna bint Abdullah Al Dahak and Undersecretary Mohammed Saeed Al Nuaimi emphasised that disrupting navigation in strategic corridors like the Strait of Hormuz threatens agricultural inputs and global grain supplies. The conference concluded with a regional consensus to develop a roadmap for resilient food systems, mobilise climate finance, and protect critical trade routes against geopolitical and climatic shocks.
270. https://www.producer.com/markets/wheat-markets-start-recovery-from-bearish-news/ - Wheat futures markets have begun recovering from recent bearish sentiment driven by a USDA report showing increased global production and ending stocks, which raised the stocks-to-use ratio to its highest level since 2018-19. While peace prospects reduced a war premium, poor crop conditions in the southern U.S. Plains, specifically in Kansas and Texas, continue to support prices. Winter wheat development is ahead of average in the south, but rain is urgently needed. Conversely, spring wheat planting in the northern Plains was delayed by cool weather, though soil moisture remains adequate.
271. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/has-indian-farm-output-finally-become-less-dependent-on-the-monsoon-126042101364_1.html - India's agricultural sector has demonstrated increased resilience to weak monsoons, with foodgrain production remaining stable or rising during below-normal rainfall years since 2015. Factors driving this trend include expanded irrigation networks, improved water conservation, better farm management, and the adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient seed varieties. While the 2026 monsoon is forecast to be below normal due to El Niño, government assessments and industry data suggest that structural changes have mitigated historical impacts. However, risks remain for rain-fed regions and specific sectors like edible oils, with potential inflationary pressures if domestic output is significantly impacted.
272. https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/march-drag-pulls-india-s-fertiliser-production-to-a-multi-year-low-126042101310_1.html - India's fertiliser production recorded its weakest growth in 13 years during FY26, with a sharp 24.6 per cent contraction in March 2026. The downturn was driven by premature maintenance shutdowns at urea plants due to drying liquefied natural gas supplies and tightened raw material availability. Full-year growth fell into negative territory, with urea output dropping nearly 27 per cent year-on-year to approximately 1.8 million tonnes in March. Complex fertiliser production also saw declines in DAP, partially offset by rises in NP/NPKS output.
273. https://weeklyblitz.net/2026/04/22/us-and-india-move-closer-to-win-win-trade-deal-amid-shifting-global-dynamics/ - US and India officials are intensifying efforts to finalize a comprehensive trade agreement, with an Indian delegation preparing to travel to Washington for high-level negotiations. The talks aim to balance strategic cooperation with economic opportunity, addressing tariff frameworks, market access, and sector-specific cooperation in technology, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and energy. Recent reductions in US tariffs and a shift in India's top trading partner to China add urgency to the discussions, which seek to rebalance trade flows and strengthen bilateral ties amidst global realignments.
274. https://www.producer.com/markets/wheat-markets-start-recovery-from-bearish-news/ - Wheat futures markets have begun recovering from recent bearish sentiment driven by a USDA report showing increased global production and ending stocks, which raised the stocks-to-use ratio to its highest level since 2018-19. While peace prospects reduced a war premium, poor crop conditions in the southern U.S. Plains, specifically in Kansas and Texas, continue to support prices. Winter wheat development is ahead of average in the south, but rain is urgently needed. Conversely, spring wheat planting in the northern Plains was delayed by cool weather, though soil moisture remains adequate.
275. https://www.producer.com/markets/wheat-markets-start-recovery-from-bearish-news/ - Wheat futures markets have begun recovering from recent bearish sentiment driven by a USDA report showing increased global production and ending stocks, which raised the stocks-to-use ratio to its highest level since 2018-19. While peace prospects reduced a war premium, poor crop conditions in the southern U.S. Plains, specifically in Kansas and Texas, continue to support prices. Winter wheat development is ahead of average in the south, but rain is urgently needed. Conversely, spring wheat planting in the northern Plains was delayed by cool weather, though soil moisture remains adequate.
276. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/argentina-trucker-protest-delays-least-418252 - Truckers demanding higher freight rates blocked access to Quequen port in Argentina, delaying at least 10 vessels from loading grain. The protest, staged by drivers camped along the access road, has also temporarily affected Bahia Blanca port, halting exports estimated at $450 million. Major exporters including Bunge, Cofco, and ACA operate at the site. While Rosario ports remain operational, the disruption highlights the reliance on truck transport for over 80% of Argentina's grain shipments to ports.
277. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/argentina-trucker-protest-delays-least-418252 - Truckers demanding higher freight rates blocked access to Quequen port in Argentina, delaying at least 10 vessels from loading grain. The protest, staged by drivers camped along the access road, has also temporarily affected Bahia Blanca port, halting exports estimated at $450 million. Major exporters including Bunge, Cofco, and ACA operate at the site. While Rosario ports remain operational, the disruption highlights the reliance on truck transport for over 80% of Argentina's grain shipments to ports.
278. https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/politics/more-fertiliser-pledged-under-government-insurance-deal-c-22174139 - The Australian federal government has reached an agreement with chemical companies CSBP and Incitec Pivot to underwrite financial risks associated with importing fertiliser. This deal, utilising strategic reserve powers, aims to secure supplies amidst global bottlenecks caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war. Government funds act as insurance for importers facing volatile prices, ensuring confidence to purchase necessary supplies for the upcoming growing season. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins stated the outcome supports food production and regional food security. Similar agreements have been made with five fuel companies for petrol and diesel.
279. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/la-crisis-de-medio-oriente-condiciona-trigo-subio-un-16-mientras-que-la-urea-tuvo-un-salto-del-77.phtml - The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted Argentine agriculture by driving up input costs. Wheat prices rose 16% while urea jumped 77%, increasing the amount of wheat needed to purchase a ton of urea from 2.7 to 4.3 tonnes. Diesel prices also continued rising in April. Although the wheat harvest is currently underway, adverse weather conditions complicate production, and estimated profit margins for on-farm production are decreasing substantially.
280. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/525653/Strait-of-Hormuz-crisis-A-looming-food-security-time-bomb - The United Nations and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warn that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war on Iran poses a severe threat to global food security. With 20-45% of key agrifood inputs, including fertilizers and fuel, transiting the strait, the blockade has triggered price surges. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero and Director David Laborde caution that without immediate resolution, farmers in developing nations will reduce yields or switch crops, leading to higher commodity prices and inflation in 2026. The UN suggests emergency financing through the IMF to prevent a catastrophe.
281. https://hortnews.com/fears-for-result-of-eu-sps-agreement-grow/ - UK grower representatives express growing concern over a renegotiated sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement between the UK and the European Union. Ministers have rejected calls for a 24-month transition period to prepare for new rules, prompting warnings of a 'cliff edge scenario' for farmers. Industry leaders, including the NFU and Fresh Produce Consortium, caution that rapid implementation of stringent controls could increase costs, cause supply chain strain, and undermine the benefits of Brexit. The government maintains it will consult on future EU rules regarding pesticides and precision breeding.
282. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/la-crisis-de-medio-oriente-condiciona-trigo-subio-un-16-mientras-que-la-urea-tuvo-un-salto-del-77.phtml - The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted Argentine agriculture by driving up input costs. Wheat prices rose 16% while urea jumped 77%, increasing the amount of wheat needed to purchase a ton of urea from 2.7 to 4.3 tonnes. Diesel prices also continued rising in April. Although the wheat harvest is currently underway, adverse weather conditions complicate production, and estimated profit margins for on-farm production are decreasing substantially.
283. https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/525653/Strait-of-Hormuz-crisis-A-looming-food-security-time-bomb - The United Nations and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warn that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war on Iran poses a severe threat to global food security. With 20-45% of key agrifood inputs, including fertilizers and fuel, transiting the strait, the blockade has triggered price surges. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero and Director David Laborde caution that without immediate resolution, farmers in developing nations will reduce yields or switch crops, leading to higher commodity prices and inflation in 2026. The UN suggests emergency financing through the IMF to prevent a catastrophe.
284. https://globalnews.ca/news/11810510/global-food-catastrophe-iran-war/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that a prolonged war in Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global agrifoods catastrophe. The conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, particularly nitrogen, leading to potential crop failures, lower yields, and famine in developing countries. FAO officials state that rising input costs and supply disruptions could trigger a cascade of effects similar to the COVID-19 pandemic, with food price inflation expected to spike later this year.
285. https://www.asian-agribiz.com/2026/04/22/pinsar-urges-tighter-control-on-wheat-use-in-the-feed-industry/ - The Indonesian Poultry Farmers Association (Pinsar) has called on the government to strengthen oversight of wheat use in the feed industry. Chairman Singgih Januratmoko warned that the misuse of food-grade wheat in animal feed could disrupt price stability and affect food supply. Pinsar suspects some feedmills are exploiting regulatory gaps. The association urged authorities to conduct audits, improve transparency in import and distribution data, and enforce stronger regulations to balance the needs of the feed and food sectors.
286. https://globalnews.ca/news/11810510/global-food-catastrophe-iran-war/ - The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that a prolonged war in Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz could cause a global agrifoods catastrophe. The conflict threatens fertilizer supplies, particularly nitrogen, leading to potential crop failures, lower yields, and famine in developing countries. FAO officials state that rising input costs and supply disruptions could trigger a cascade of effects similar to the COVID-19 pandemic, with food price inflation expected to spike later this year.
287. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/winter-wheat-conditions-continue-to-decline/ - USDA reports a continued decline in US winter wheat crop conditions, with 30 percent rated good to excellent, the lowest quality rating in three years. Hard red winter wheat conditions are deteriorating, potentially keeping Kansas wheat futures elevated. State-specific ratings show South Dakota at 55 percent poor to very poor, Nebraska at 45 percent poor to very poor, and Kansas at 41 percent poor to very poor. The decline does not yet factor in recent freezes in the Plains.
288. https://fortune.com/2026/04/21/farmers-perfect-storm-drought-fertilizer-fuel-prices-tariffs/ - US farmers face a convergence of record drought, high input costs, and geopolitical instability. A severe drought covers 61% of the continental US, threatening crop yields. Simultaneously, tariffs and the Middle East conflict have driven up fertilizer and fuel prices, with 70% of farmers unable to afford necessary inputs. These factors are projected to increase food prices in 2026 and potentially cause long-term inflation in meat and dairy due to reduced livestock feed availability.
289. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-spread-blows-out-drought-chaos-plagues-americas-breadbasket - Hard red winter wheat futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat in over two years as severe drought intensified across the US Great Plains and Midwest. As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 states were in drought, affecting nearly 149 million people. The market is pricing in supply imbalances and quality concerns for high-protein wheat used in bread and flour. Concurrently, the nation's cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s, risking record ground beef prices. Additionally, potential fertilizer shortages due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten crop yields later this year.
290. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/were-borrowed-time-vitol-lng-chief-warns-coming-food-price-shock - Pablo Galante Escobar, head of LNG at Vitol, warned at the FT Commodities Summit that the closure of the Hormuz chokepoint is transferring the energy crisis into a food crisis. He stated that only gas can supply fertilizer feed, and ongoing disruptions threaten crop yields and trigger food price inflation. Escobar noted a recovery time of three to five months for LNG production and potential long-term supply growth losses in the Gulf market. Other traders also indicated delays in expected global LNG glut.
291. https://en.antaranews.com/news/413196/prabowo-albanese-discuss-export-of-250000-tons-of-urea-to-australia - President Prabowo Subianto and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese discussed an initial export agreement for 250,000 tons of Indonesian urea fertilizer to Australia. This agreement is part of a broader strategy to export approximately one million tons globally, targeting markets including India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Brazil. The move aims to utilise production capacity exceeding domestic demand without disrupting local supply, while strengthening trade cooperation and increasing the added value of the fertilizer industry sector.
292. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-worried-high-fertilizer-172555893.html - President Donald Trump expresses concern over rising fertilizer prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, yet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer previously lobbied for tariffs that increased costs for American farmers. Greer represented J.R. Simplot Company during the first Trump administration, successfully persuading the government to impose tariffs on phosphate fertilizers from Russia and Morocco despite warnings from agricultural interests. Current data indicates 70% of farmers cannot secure needed supplies, creating a conflict between the administration's stated goals and Greer's past advocacy for policies that raised input costs and potentially exacerbated shortages.
293. https://www.india.com/business/window-opens-for-trumps-tariff-refund-more-than-160-billion-to-be-returned-how-much-will-india-receive-us-supreme-court-ieepa-gtri-8389005/ - The US Supreme Court has ordered the Trump administration to refund approximately $166 billion in tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The refund process commenced on April 20, requiring US importers to file applications. Payments are expected to be disbursed between May and July 2026. Indian exporters may benefit indirectly, with estimates suggesting $10 to $12 billion in potential refunds, contingent on negotiations with US buyers. However, new 10% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may offset these gains.
294. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-spread-blows-out-drought-chaos-plagues-americas-breadbasket - Hard red winter wheat futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat in over two years as severe drought intensified across the US Great Plains and Midwest. As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 states were in drought, affecting nearly 149 million people. The market is pricing in supply imbalances and quality concerns for high-protein wheat used in bread and flour. Concurrently, the nation's cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s, risking record ground beef prices. Additionally, potential fertilizer shortages due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten crop yields later this year.
295. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/winter-wheat-conditions-continue-to-decline/ - USDA reports a continued decline in US winter wheat crop conditions, with 30 percent rated good to excellent, the lowest quality rating in three years. Hard red winter wheat conditions are deteriorating, potentially keeping Kansas wheat futures elevated. State-specific ratings show South Dakota at 55 percent poor to very poor, Nebraska at 45 percent poor to very poor, and Kansas at 41 percent poor to very poor. The decline does not yet factor in recent freezes in the Plains.
296. https://fortune.com/2026/04/21/farmers-perfect-storm-drought-fertilizer-fuel-prices-tariffs/ - US farmers face a convergence of record drought, high input costs, and geopolitical instability. A severe drought covers 61% of the continental US, threatening crop yields. Simultaneously, tariffs and the Middle East conflict have driven up fertilizer and fuel prices, with 70% of farmers unable to afford necessary inputs. These factors are projected to increase food prices in 2026 and potentially cause long-term inflation in meat and dairy due to reduced livestock feed availability.
297. https://www.arabbarometer.org/2026/04/higher-costs-harder-choices-food-insecurity-in-mena/ - New Arab Barometer data from August to November 2025 reveal deepening food insecurity across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In six of eight surveyed countries, at least half the population reported running out of food they could not afford. The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, including airstrikes on Iran and subsequent Strait of Hormuz restrictions, is exacerbating the crisis by driving up oil, transportation, and fertilizer costs. The World Food Programme warns the conflict could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger globally, with significant impacts on import-dependent economies like Iraq and Egypt.
298. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-spread-blows-out-drought-chaos-plagues-americas-breadbasket - Hard red winter wheat futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat in over two years as severe drought intensified across the US Great Plains and Midwest. As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 states were in drought, affecting nearly 149 million people. The market is pricing in supply imbalances and quality concerns for high-protein wheat used in bread and flour. Concurrently, the nation's cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s, risking record ground beef prices. Additionally, potential fertilizer shortages due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten crop yields later this year.
299. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/winter-wheat-conditions-continue-to-decline/ - USDA reports a continued decline in US winter wheat crop conditions, with 30 percent rated good to excellent, the lowest quality rating in three years. Hard red winter wheat conditions are deteriorating, potentially keeping Kansas wheat futures elevated. State-specific ratings show South Dakota at 55 percent poor to very poor, Nebraska at 45 percent poor to very poor, and Kansas at 41 percent poor to very poor. The decline does not yet factor in recent freezes in the Plains.
300. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/wheat-spread-blows-out-drought-chaos-plagues-americas-breadbasket - Hard red winter wheat futures widened to their largest premium over soft red wheat in over two years as severe drought intensified across the US Great Plains and Midwest. As of mid-April, 61% of the Lower 48 states were in drought, affecting nearly 149 million people. The market is pricing in supply imbalances and quality concerns for high-protein wheat used in bread and flour. Concurrently, the nation's cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s, risking record ground beef prices. Additionally, potential fertilizer shortages due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten crop yields later this year.
301. https://www.supertalk.fm/mississippi-farmers-face-drought-conditions-as-usda-designates-45-counties-for-relief/ - The U.S. Department of Agriculture designated 45 Mississippi counties as primary or contiguous natural disaster areas due to severe drought conditions. Farmers in these regions are eligible for Farm Service Agency emergency loans to cover production and physical losses. The state has received approximately half of its normal rainfall for 2026, ranking as the 10th driest year on record. Applications for low-interest loans must be submitted by December 10.
302. https://thepostnewspaper.net/2026/04/21/commissioner-miller-praises-strait-of-hormuz-reopening-trump-administrations-fertilizer-cost-relief-plan/ - Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller applauded the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the Trump Administration's plan to redirect tariff revenue to lower fertilizer costs. Miller stated the reopening delivers relief for fuel and fertilizer prices, while the administration's strategy aims to strengthen domestic supply and address soaring input costs threatening farmers' margins and food security.
303. https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1188308/opinion/international/war-beyond-the-supply-chain-blockade - The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran is causing severe global economic repercussions, including rising inflation and recession risks. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz have blocked supplies of oil, gas, and fertilisers, threatening food security for millions. The IMF warns that over 32 million people worldwide could fall into poverty, with developing nations in Africa, South Asia, and Latin America hit hardest. Global growth projections have been downgraded, and fuel shortages are already impacting electricity and transportation in parts of Africa.
304. https://www.welthungerhilfe.org/news/latest-articles/iran-war-impact-hunger - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has triggered a crisis affecting global food security. Rising energy and fertilizer prices, coupled with transport disruptions, threaten crop failures and increased hunger worldwide. The UN Development Programme warns 30 million more people could enter poverty. Regions like East Africa, Madagascar, Sudan, India, and Nepal face severe challenges, with farmers planting without fertilizer due to cost and availability issues. Governments are using subsidies to mitigate impacts, but long-term recovery is uncertain. Welthungerhilfe calls for diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait and urgent financial support from international institutions.
305. https://nationalaglawcenter.org/food-foundations-geographic-indicators-on-agricultural-products/ - The National Agricultural Law Center provides an overview of geographic indicators (GIs) on agricultural products, detailing their legal frameworks domestically and internationally. The article discusses WTO rules under TRIPS, US protections via the USPTO and TTB, and the EU's quality scheme including PDO and PGI categories. It highlights ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU regarding generic terms like 'feta' and 'champagne', noting potential impacts on US producers if terms become protected GIs globally.
306. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161121.html - As of April 20, Ukrainian farmers sowed 1.252 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, representing 21% of the 2026 forecast. The weekly sowing rate increased 1.5 times to 254,900 hectares, narrowing the lag behind last year's pace to 15.3%. Key crops include barley, peas, wheat, and oats, with significant progress in the Odesa, Ternopil, Mykolaiv, and Poltava regions. Industrial crops like sunflower and sugar beets are also being planted ahead of schedule.
307. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-wheat-procurement-fci-narela-najafgarh-april-24-10648812/ - The Centre has approved the resumption of wheat procurement in Delhi through the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to benefit approximately 21,000 farmers. Following a request by Chief Minister Rekha Gupta, operations will restart at Narela and Najafgarh depots from April 24, ending a five-year gap since 2021-22. Farmers must present Aadhaar cards, land records, and bank passbooks to sell produce at notified centres.
308. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161121.html - As of April 20, Ukrainian farmers sowed 1.252 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, representing 21% of the 2026 forecast. The weekly sowing rate increased 1.5 times to 254,900 hectares, narrowing the lag behind last year's pace to 15.3%. Key crops include barley, peas, wheat, and oats, with significant progress in the Odesa, Ternopil, Mykolaiv, and Poltava regions. Industrial crops like sunflower and sugar beets are also being planted ahead of schedule.
309. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1161121.html - As of April 20, Ukrainian farmers sowed 1.252 million hectares of spring grain and leguminous crops, representing 21% of the 2026 forecast. The weekly sowing rate increased 1.5 times to 254,900 hectares, narrowing the lag behind last year's pace to 15.3%. Key crops include barley, peas, wheat, and oats, with significant progress in the Odesa, Ternopil, Mykolaiv, and Poltava regions. Industrial crops like sunflower and sugar beets are also being planted ahead of schedule.
310. https://i-epikaira.blogspot.com/2026/04/middle-east-conflict-adds-pressure-on.html - FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned that the ongoing 2026 conflict in the Middle East is placing additional strain on global food supply chains and agrifood systems. Speaking at the 38th Session of the FAO Regional Conference for the Near East in Rome, he highlighted threats to food availability, accessibility, and affordability. The crisis is exacerbated by rising energy prices and fertilizer market disturbances, increasing production costs and reducing agricultural productivity. FAO is assessing impacts to provide policy support, while the UAE, chairing the conference, aims to shift the region towards proactive innovation and resilient systems.
311. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-21-2026/ - US winter wheat futures declined 1 to 2 cents as markets faced stiff technical resistance and deteriorating crop conditions. The USDA rated only 30% of the US winter wheat crop as good to excellent, a drop driven by dry weather in the Plains and recent freezes. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including a potential collapse of US-Iran ceasefire talks, have heightened uncertainty for global trade and energy supplies. Conversely, US corn and soybean planting progress remains ahead of the five-year average despite recent rain.
312. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-21-2026/ - US winter wheat futures declined 1 to 2 cents as markets faced stiff technical resistance and deteriorating crop conditions. The USDA rated only 30% of the US winter wheat crop as good to excellent, a drop driven by dry weather in the Plains and recent freezes. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including a potential collapse of US-Iran ceasefire talks, have heightened uncertainty for global trade and energy supplies. Conversely, US corn and soybean planting progress remains ahead of the five-year average despite recent rain.
313. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-21-2026/ - US winter wheat futures declined 1 to 2 cents as markets faced stiff technical resistance and deteriorating crop conditions. The USDA rated only 30% of the US winter wheat crop as good to excellent, a drop driven by dry weather in the Plains and recent freezes. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including a potential collapse of US-Iran ceasefire talks, have heightened uncertainty for global trade and energy supplies. Conversely, US corn and soybean planting progress remains ahead of the five-year average despite recent rain.
314. https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1188295/opinion/business/energy-shock-ripples-across-the-global-economy - Escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have triggered a global energy crisis, causing supply chain disruptions and surging import costs for nations in Asia and Europe. The uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has driven up war risk premiums, fueling inflationary pressures and prompting central banks to raise interest rates. International financial institutions, including the IMF and World Bank, have revised growth forecasts downward for major economies, with the UK, China, and India facing significant slowdowns. The crisis also threatens global food security by disrupting fertilizer exports from Gulf nations, while developing economies face heightened risks of currency depreciation and capital outflows.
315. https://www.deccanchronicle.com/business/us-starts-tariff-refunds-indian-exporters-need-to-engage-with-buyers-gtri-1951843 - The US has initiated refunds for reciprocal tariffs imposed from April 2025, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the framework. Approximately USD 12 billion of the total USD 166 billion refund relates to goods from India, with textiles, engineering goods, and chemicals being major contributors. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) states that refunds go directly to US importers, not exporters. Consequently, Indian exporters must proactively negotiate with American buyers to secure a share of the refunded duties through contract revisions or rebates, as they have no legal right to claim the funds directly.
316. https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2026/04/287973/morocco-expects-strong-cereal-harvest-of-90-million-quintals-in-2026-season/ - Morocco's Agriculture Minister Ahmed El Bouari announced a projected cereal harvest of 90 million quintals for the 2026 season, a significant recovery from the previous year's 44 million quintals. This increase, attributed to rainfall 86.6% above normal, is expected to boost agricultural GDP by 15%. The government plans to suspend soft wheat imports in June and July to support domestic production and reserves, aiming for an average of 80 million quintals by 2030.
317. https://knews.kg/2026/04/21/rossiya-vvodit-novuyu-sistemu-dlya-vvoza-tovarov-iz-eaes-eksperty-schitayut-chto-eto-pohozhe-na-netarifnye-barery/ - Russia plans to implement the SPOT system for importing goods from Eurasian Economic Union partners starting 1 June. Under this rule, importers must submit a supply confirmation and prepay VAT two days before arrival to receive a QR code for border clearance. Officials state the measure targets shadow imports and ensures tax compliance. Experts from Kyrgyzstan warn the additional procedures and potential financial burdens could act as non-tariff barriers, affecting small businesses and supply chain timelines within the union.
318. https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9831328/canadian-fertilizer-supply-pressure-drives-higher-costs-for-growers/ - Canadian farmers in Prince Edward Island face rising fertilizer costs due to global supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and tariffs on imports from Russia and Belarus. The Atlantic Grains Council warns of a deteriorating situation, with growers potentially struggling to access or afford nitrogen. While short-term supply remains stable, prices are expected to rise later in the year, impacting the bottom line and potentially affecting vegetable and greenhouse product costs.
319. https://www.thedickinsonpress.com/news/north-dakota/fertilizer-diesel-woes-make-for-difficult-spring-planting-decisions - North Dakota farmers face severe financial pressure as diesel prices approach $5 per gallon and fertilizer costs surge due to supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran war. Average diesel prices are nearly $1.50 higher than last year, while urea prices have risen 47% since February. Approximately 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford required fertilizer, forcing difficult decisions on planting, crop selection, and budgeting. State support has increased to over $100 million for the 2026 Farm Stability Loan Program to help producers manage debt and high input costs.
320. https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2026/04/21/what-impact-is-the-war-between-the-us-israel-and-iran-having-on-oilseed-and-grain-markets/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS - Ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has driven volatile crude oil prices, increasing fertiliser and energy costs for UK farmers. Analysts warn that reduced nitrogen usage to manage expenses may result in lower protein levels in wheat harvests. While current grain stocks provide some market stability, potential yield reductions and shifting planting intentions globally pose risks to supply quality and demand, particularly in lower-income economies sensitive to food inflation.
321. https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2026/04/21/what-impact-is-the-war-between-the-us-israel-and-iran-having-on-oilseed-and-grain-markets/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS - Ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has driven volatile crude oil prices, increasing fertiliser and energy costs for UK farmers. Analysts warn that reduced nitrogen usage to manage expenses may result in lower protein levels in wheat harvests. While current grain stocks provide some market stability, potential yield reductions and shifting planting intentions globally pose risks to supply quality and demand, particularly in lower-income economies sensitive to food inflation.
322. https://www.agriland.co.uk/farming-news/preparing-for-eu-deforestation-rules-feels-almost-like-groundhog-day-nigta/ - Aidan Fisher, president of the Northern Ireland Grain Trade Association (NIGTA), stated that preparing for the EU Deforestation Regulation feels like 'Groundhog Day' due to unresolved questions regarding competent authority designation and regulatory scope in Northern Ireland. Fisher highlighted that despite member investment, fundamental uncertainties hinder business planning. The sector is also awaiting a 2026 UK-EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement, though divergence and customs arrangements remain critical challenges requiring ongoing stakeholder engagement in Brussels.
323. https://www.indiasnews.net/news/279001282/us-pushes-for-win-win-trade-deal-with-india - The US is seeking a bilateral trade agreement with India, with an Indian delegation scheduled to visit Washington to finalize the pact. Ambassador Sergio Gor described the talks as a significant step towards a mutually beneficial outcome. India and the US are working to convert a February joint statement into a formal deal. Recent trade data indicates a narrowing surplus for India, while geopolitical tensions regarding China's rise remain a factor in Washington's strategy.
324. https://atarde.com.br/a-tarde-esg/acordo-mercosul-uniao-europeia-em-vigor-movimenta-a-economia-do-mar-1386487 - The Mercosul-Union of Europe trade agreement enters provisional force on 1 May 2026 following ratification by all four founding members and the European Union. The deal eliminates tariffs on approximately 95% of Mercosul products and 91% of European goods, projected to generate R$650 billion in annual bilateral trade. Key sectors include agriculture, automotive, and maritime logistics, with specific quotas for sensitive items like beef and milk. The agreement aims to boost port activity, particularly at Santos, and requires infrastructure investments in river and maritime security.
325. https://timesofoman.com//article/170874-un-chief-calls-for-full-restoration-of-navigation-rights-amid-strait-of-hormuz-tensions - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has expressed grave concern over escalating restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, calling for the full restoration of international navigational rights. Speaking on behalf of the UN, Stephane Dujarric highlighted disruptions to global supply chains, noting that 10-12% of world fertiliser supplies are blocked and oil prices have risen. The statement warns that rising costs hinder UN aid capacity and emphasises that no military objective justifies civilian harm. This diplomatic appeal arrives as a US-Iran ceasefire approaches expiration amidst ongoing maritime frictions and broader Middle East volatility.
326. https://www.logisticsinsider.in/india-seeks-preferential-us-market-access-as-trade-talks-advance/ - India is pursuing preferential market access for its exports in the United States as a delegation led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain arrives in Washington. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the first tranche of a proposed bilateral trade agreement is nearly finalised. The discussions aim to secure favourable access for Indian products compared to competing nations, occurring amidst recent US trade measures and tariff discussions.
327. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/21/as-iran-crisis-drags-on-fears-of-global-food-crisis-grow?traffic_source=rss - Analysts warn that a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food catastrophe, disproportionately affecting poor populations in Africa and Asia. While global food prices have risen modestly, experts predict significant increases in fuel and fertiliser costs will eventually drive up food prices. The Food and Agriculture Organization identifies India, Bangladesh, and Somalia among the nations most at risk, with the World Food Programme estimating 45 million more people could face acute shortages if the conflict persists.
328. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/04/21/i-live-in-vegas-canadian-ag-producers-take-gamble-with-high-fuel-fertilizer-costs/ - Canadian agriculture producers are facing a gamble due to a sharp increase in fuel and fertilizer prices, which have nearly doubled since the war involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel. Geopolitical tensions have choked oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to potential shortages. Farmers like Bruce Bird and Dave Reid pre-purchased supplies in the fall, tying up hundreds of thousands of dollars despite high costs. Industry leaders and experts warn of squeezed profit margins, potential yield reductions, and risks to food security if supply chains are disrupted further.
329. https://www.riotimesonline.com/trump-tariff-refund-portal-cape-166-billion-april-2026/ - US Customs and Border Protection launched the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal on April 20, enabling over 330,000 importers to claim refunds on approximately US$166 billion in International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. The Supreme Court previously struck down these duties in February. Approved refunds are expected within 60 to 90 days, with the first phase processing up to US$120 billion. Brazilian exporters, who faced the highest surcharges, stand to recover a significant portion of the total.
330. https://www.24newshd.tv/21-Apr-2026/india-fertiliser-output-drops-quarter-mideast-war - India's fertiliser production fell by 24.6 percent in March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, following disruptions to natural gas imports caused by the Middle East war. The conflict, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, closed the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy supplies critical for urea manufacturing. Despite the decline, the Ministry of Petroleum stated that adequate stocks remain available and sourcing is diversified. To mitigate rising costs, the government increased fertiliser subsidies by 11 percent in April. Agriculture employs over 45 percent of India's workforce, making this production slump a significant concern for food security.
331. https://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=69164 - Msgr Fernando Chica Arellano, Permanent Observer of the Holy See to UN food and agriculture agencies, warned at a conference in Rome that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East will exacerbate global hunger. He stated that rising energy and fertilizer costs, combined with supply chain uncertainty, are driving up production costs and price volatility, particularly affecting vulnerable countries dependent on imports. The warning was issued during the 38th session of the Regional Conference for the Middle East.
332. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/04/21/i-live-in-vegas-canadian-ag-producers-take-gamble-with-high-fuel-fertilizer-costs/ - Canadian agriculture producers are facing a gamble due to a sharp increase in fuel and fertilizer prices, which have nearly doubled since the war involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel. Geopolitical tensions have choked oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to potential shortages. Farmers like Bruce Bird and Dave Reid pre-purchased supplies in the fall, tying up hundreds of thousands of dollars despite high costs. Industry leaders and experts warn of squeezed profit margins, potential yield reductions, and risks to food security if supply chains are disrupted further.
333. https://www.albertafarmexpress.ca/crops/phosphate-prices-urea-middle-east-supply/ - Analysts explain why phosphate fertilizer prices have increased less than urea following the Middle East conflict. While urea values surged 65-75% due to Russian production losses and Strait of Hormuz restrictions, phosphate prices rose only 22-27%. Factors include delayed peak demand in key markets, farmers skipping applications, and supply-side issues where China suspended exports and major producers like Morocco and South Africa faced input shortages. Despite global supply disruptions, phosphate markets remain more measured compared to the nitrogen sector.
334. https://www.beefcentral.com/news/global-fertiliser-market-facing-prolonged-period-of-strain-from-middle-east-disruption-rabo/ - Rabobank reports the global fertiliser market is under severe strain due to Middle East geopolitical disruption and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tight supply, sharply higher prices, and elevated volatility have compressed farm margins worldwide. Nitrogen and phosphate markets are most exposed, with affordability deteriorating rapidly. The outlook for 2026 indicates continued pressure on farm economics and increased risks for crop production and food price stability, potentially leading to demand destruction as farmers reduce application rates or shift crops.
335. https://www.news18.com/india/india-us-bilateral-trade-deal-near-finalisation-washington-talks-progress-market-access-agreement-ws-l-10046456.html - India and the United States are advancing towards finalising a bilateral trade agreement following productive negotiations in Washington, DC. Senior officials indicate that most major issues have been resolved, with discussions now focusing on remaining differences. The Indian delegation, led by Darpan Jain, is meeting with the US Trade Representative team headed by Brendan Lynch. This development follows a framework agreement announced in February 2025, aimed at improving market access and strengthening economic cooperation between the two nations.
336. https://www.sfntoday.com/2026/04/21/brooks-schaffer-market-report-for-tuesday-april-21st/ - US grain markets reacted to fluctuating geopolitical tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflict, with crude oil volatility impacting sentiment. Simultaneously, weather concerns persist due to extreme dryness in the West and East, alongside a frost threat, while the central Corn Belt receives adequate moisture. USDA data indicates corn and soybean planting is ahead of the five-year average, whereas wheat conditions have deteriorated significantly below expectations and forecasts. Warmer temperatures are expected in the central US, potentially accelerating planting before late-week rains in the Eastern Belt.
337. https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2026/04/21/indias-fertiliser-output-drops-a-quarter-on-middle-east-war - India's fertiliser production fell by 24.6% in March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Ministry of Commerce. The decline follows disruptions to natural gas imports caused by the Middle East war, specifically after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas is essential for urea production, a critical input for India's agriculture sector. While the Ministry of Petroleum claims adequate stocks and diversified sourcing, the World Trade Organization warns the supply chain disruption poses a threat to global food security. India recently increased fertiliser subsidies by 11% to mitigate rising costs for farmers ahead of the Kharif sowing season.
338. https://www.indiandefensenews.in/2026/04/indiaus-bilateral-trade-talks-to-resume.html - US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor confirmed that an Indian trade delegation led by Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal will travel to Washington DC between 20 and 22 April for negotiations on the Bilateral Trade Agreement. The talks aim to finalise a deal described as a win-win for both nations, following a framework announced in February 2025. Discussions address market access, supply chain resilience, and recent tariff adjustments, including the removal of 25% tariffs linked to Russian oil imports and the implementation of new 10% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, 1974.
339. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40417509/wheat-rises-on-worsening-us-crop-ratings-though-ample-supply-limits-gains - Chicago wheat futures rose 0.3% to $6.07-1/2 a bushel as dry and cold conditions in the US Plains reduced crop condition ratings. The USDA reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from 34% the previous week. Despite a 20% year-to-date price increase, gains were limited by ample global supply and concerns over US export competitiveness. Other grains saw mixed movements, with corn falling and soybeans rising slightly.
340. https://www.sfntoday.com/2026/04/21/brooks-schaffer-market-report-for-tuesday-april-21st/ - US grain markets reacted to fluctuating geopolitical tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflict, with crude oil volatility impacting sentiment. Simultaneously, weather concerns persist due to extreme dryness in the West and East, alongside a frost threat, while the central Corn Belt receives adequate moisture. USDA data indicates corn and soybean planting is ahead of the five-year average, whereas wheat conditions have deteriorated significantly below expectations and forecasts. Warmer temperatures are expected in the central US, potentially accelerating planting before late-week rains in the Eastern Belt.
341. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40417509/wheat-rises-on-worsening-us-crop-ratings-though-ample-supply-limits-gains - Chicago wheat futures rose 0.3% to $6.07-1/2 a bushel as dry and cold conditions in the US Plains reduced crop condition ratings. The USDA reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from 34% the previous week. Despite a 20% year-to-date price increase, gains were limited by ample global supply and concerns over US export competitiveness. Other grains saw mixed movements, with corn falling and soybeans rising slightly.
342. https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2026/04/21/indias-fertiliser-output-drops-a-quarter-on-middle-east-war - India's fertiliser production fell by 24.6% in March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to the Ministry of Commerce. The decline follows disruptions to natural gas imports caused by the Middle East war, specifically after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas is essential for urea production, a critical input for India's agriculture sector. While the Ministry of Petroleum claims adequate stocks and diversified sourcing, the World Trade Organization warns the supply chain disruption poses a threat to global food security. India recently increased fertiliser subsidies by 11% to mitigate rising costs for farmers ahead of the Kharif sowing season.
343. https://www.sfntoday.com/2026/04/21/brooks-schaffer-market-report-for-tuesday-april-21st/ - US grain markets reacted to fluctuating geopolitical tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflict, with crude oil volatility impacting sentiment. Simultaneously, weather concerns persist due to extreme dryness in the West and East, alongside a frost threat, while the central Corn Belt receives adequate moisture. USDA data indicates corn and soybean planting is ahead of the five-year average, whereas wheat conditions have deteriorated significantly below expectations and forecasts. Warmer temperatures are expected in the central US, potentially accelerating planting before late-week rains in the Eastern Belt.
344. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40417509/wheat-rises-on-worsening-us-crop-ratings-though-ample-supply-limits-gains - Chicago wheat futures rose 0.3% to $6.07-1/2 a bushel as dry and cold conditions in the US Plains reduced crop condition ratings. The USDA reported 30% of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down from 34% the previous week. Despite a 20% year-to-date price increase, gains were limited by ample global supply and concerns over US export competitiveness. Other grains saw mixed movements, with corn falling and soybeans rising slightly.
345. https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/core-sector-output-contracts-in-march-on-west-asia-war/130406429 - India's eight core infrastructure industries output contracted 0.4 per cent in March, the first decline since October, driven by a 24.6 per cent drop in fertiliser production due to gas shortages linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Crude oil output fell 5.7 per cent for the seventh consecutive month, while coal production decreased 4 per cent. Steel and cement output also decelerated. Natural gas production rose 6.4 per cent, the first increase in 20 months. The conflict in West Asia is expected to weigh heavily on the industrial sector.
346. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/as-poor-quality-wheat-piles-up-procurement-agencies-seek-waiver-of-storage-gain-norms-10647450/ - The Joint Coordination Committee of State Procurement Agencies in Punjab has requested a complete waiver of storage gain norms for the 2026-27 procurement season. Citing severe crop damage from extreme weather, including heatwaves and unseasonal rains, the committee argues that current wheat quality is significantly inferior to Fair Average Quality standards. With godowns already full, agencies face risks of spoilage and financial loss if standard norms are enforced. The committee, representing Markfed, PUNSUP Pungrain, and Warehouse, urges the state Department of Food to escalate the matter to the Centre.
347. https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/04/21/337037.htm - The contiguous United States is experiencing record drought levels for this time of year, affecting 61% of the Lower 48 states. Meteorologists warn this poses significant risks for the upcoming wildfire season, water supply shortages, and rising food prices. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports the Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Experts from the University of Arizona and Yale Climate Connections express concern over agricultural yields, reservoir levels, and potential global food security issues due to the extreme dryness and heat.
348. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/as-poor-quality-wheat-piles-up-procurement-agencies-seek-waiver-of-storage-gain-norms-10647450/ - The Joint Coordination Committee of State Procurement Agencies in Punjab has requested a complete waiver of storage gain norms for the 2026-27 procurement season. Citing severe crop damage from extreme weather, including heatwaves and unseasonal rains, the committee argues that current wheat quality is significantly inferior to Fair Average Quality standards. With godowns already full, agencies face risks of spoilage and financial loss if standard norms are enforced. The committee, representing Markfed, PUNSUP Pungrain, and Warehouse, urges the state Department of Food to escalate the matter to the Centre.
349. https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/04/21/337037.htm - The contiguous United States is experiencing record drought levels for this time of year, affecting 61% of the Lower 48 states. Meteorologists warn this poses significant risks for the upcoming wildfire season, water supply shortages, and rising food prices. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports the Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Experts from the University of Arizona and Yale Climate Connections express concern over agricultural yields, reservoir levels, and potential global food security issues due to the extreme dryness and heat.
350. https://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/04/21/337037.htm - The contiguous United States is experiencing record drought levels for this time of year, affecting 61% of the Lower 48 states. Meteorologists warn this poses significant risks for the upcoming wildfire season, water supply shortages, and rising food prices. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports the Palmer Drought Severity Index hit its highest level for March since 1895. Experts from the University of Arizona and Yale Climate Connections express concern over agricultural yields, reservoir levels, and potential global food security issues due to the extreme dryness and heat.
351. https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/the-iran-wars-impact-on-india-and-pakistan/ - Escalating tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz are causing severe economic repercussions for India and Pakistan. Rising global oil and LNG prices have increased India's fertilizer import bills and triggered gas rationing, while Pakistan faces falling fertilizer sales and power cuts due to IMF constraints. Both nations rely heavily on remittances from Gulf workers, whose livelihoods are threatened by infrastructure attacks. With a ceasefire expiring on April 21, both countries face significant economic risks despite diplomatic efforts.
352. https://clubofmozambique.com/news/us-to-host-further-g-20-talks-on-wars-impact-on-food-and-fertiliser/ - The US, as current G20 chair, will host further talks in coming weeks regarding the Middle East war's impact on food and fertiliser. During a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on April 16, officials discussed economic impacts and supply chains but stopped short of announcing a coordinated action agreement. The US Treasury seeks coordinated action with the IMF and World Bank to ensure fertiliser access, aiming to prevent 45 million more people from facing food insecurity due to supply disruptions.
353. https://clubofmozambique.com/news/us-to-host-further-g-20-talks-on-wars-impact-on-food-and-fertiliser/ - The US, as current G20 chair, will host further talks in coming weeks regarding the Middle East war's impact on food and fertiliser. During a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on April 16, officials discussed economic impacts and supply chains but stopped short of announcing a coordinated action agreement. The US Treasury seeks coordinated action with the IMF and World Bank to ensure fertiliser access, aiming to prevent 45 million more people from facing food insecurity due to supply disruptions.
354. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/india-us-begin-talks-on-finer-details-of-bilateral-trade-deal/article70887010.ece - India and the US have commenced negotiations to finalise the details of a bilateral trade agreement following a US Supreme Court ruling against sweeping tariffs. A delegation led by Darpan Jain is visiting Washington to conclude the pact, which aims to achieve USD 500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030. The agreement includes US tariff reductions on Indian goods and the removal of specific levies related to Russian oil purchases.
355. https://www.michiganagtoday.com/2026/04/20/u-s-to-use-tariff-funds-to-offset-high-fertilizer-prices/ - The Trump administration plans to direct tens of billions of dollars from tariffs and trade deals to strengthen domestic fertilizer production. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated the goal is to rebuild US capacity and reshore fertilizer manufacturing. A formal strategy involving Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Jamieson Greer may be announced soon, with new facilities expected to become operational in 12 to 18 months.
356. https://asianews.network/first-tranche-of-india-us-trade-deal-almost-finalised-commerce-minister/ - Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the first tranche of the India-US bilateral trade agreement is nearly finalised. A delegation led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain is currently in Washington to discuss mechanisms for preferential market access. This visit follows a postponement due to the US Supreme Court striking down reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which subsequently ordered refunds of over USD 160bn.
357. https://cryptobriefing.com/businesses-face-portal-glitches-seeking-trump-tariff-refunds-amid-eu-tariff/ - Betting odds on EU retaliatory tariffs by September 30 have fallen to 15% following Supreme Court rulings against US tariffs and technical glitches in the US refund portal. Market participants view the portal issues as procedural rather than indicative of escalating trade tensions, suggesting a bearish trend for near-term EU action despite new temporary tariffs invoked by the US administration.
358. https://www.ruralnewsgroup.co.nz/rural-news/rural-general-news/nz-india-free-trade-agreement-earl-rattray-warning - Earl Rattray, a former Fonterra director and Waikato agribusiness leader, has called for bipartisan political support to ratify the New Zealand-India Free Trade Agreement. Rattray warns that delays could diminish New Zealand's global relevance as a trading nation. He argues that if the deal offers net commercial benefits, politicians have a duty to proceed despite current political posturing. Rattray, who operates Binsar Farms in India with partners, emphasises the need for unity to secure the agreement.
359. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/20/nx-s1-5776945/in-the-american-heartland-farmers-are-literally-betting-the-farm-to-stay-in-business - Row crop farmers in the American Heartland are entering their fourth consecutive planting season operating at a financial loss. Their business viability depends on the stability of the Iran ceasefire and the resumption of fertilizer and diesel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical instability in the region poses a direct threat to agricultural operations and profitability.
360. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/70-us-farmers-say-they-wont-be-able-buy-all-fertilizer-they-need-2026 - A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation conducted in April 2025 reveals that 70% of US farmers anticipate being unable to purchase all required fertilizer in 2026 due to soaring costs. Prices for nitrogen fertilizer have risen over 30% since late February, driven by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The survey, based on responses from over 5,700 farmers across the US and Puerto Rico, indicates that 8 in 10 farmers in the southern US cannot afford necessary supplies. This shortage threatens food production and global food security.
361. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/70-us-farmers-say-they-wont-be-able-buy-all-fertilizer-they-need-2026 - A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation conducted in April 2025 reveals that 70% of US farmers anticipate being unable to purchase all required fertilizer in 2026 due to soaring costs. Prices for nitrogen fertilizer have risen over 30% since late February, driven by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The survey, based on responses from over 5,700 farmers across the US and Puerto Rico, indicates that 8 in 10 farmers in the southern US cannot afford necessary supplies. This shortage threatens food production and global food security.
362. https://globalkashmir.net/northwest-central-adjoining-east-india-to-witness-heatwave-conditions-for-next-4-5-days-imd/ - The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated on Monday that heatwave conditions are likely to affect isolated pockets of northwest, central, and adjoining east India for the next four to five days. Specific regions including Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and parts of eastern states are expected to experience heatwaves between April 20 and April 25. Additionally, hot and humid weather is forecast for coastal areas and Tamil Nadu, while warm nights are anticipated in several northern and central states. The department also warned of moderate to intense thunderstorm activity and a possibility of hailstorms over parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh on Monday.
363. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/planting-picks-up-pace-while-wheat-struggles/ - The USDA Crop Progress report dated April 20 indicates that corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting rates have accelerated, exceeding last week's figures. However, winter wheat conditions have deteriorated, with only 30% rated good to excellent due to persistent drought in key growing areas. While spring wheat emergence remains low, the overall planting pace for major crops is moving ahead of the average.
364. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/planting-picks-up-pace-while-wheat-struggles/ - The USDA Crop Progress report dated April 20 indicates that corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting rates have accelerated, exceeding last week's figures. However, winter wheat conditions have deteriorated, with only 30% rated good to excellent due to persistent drought in key growing areas. While spring wheat emergence remains low, the overall planting pace for major crops is moving ahead of the average.
365. https://www.lapresse.tn/2026/04/20/on-nous-ecrit-ce-que-lia-apporte-a-nos-createurs-et-ce-quelle-leur-prend-2/ - * Fertiliser prices in Europe rose by approximately 20% in one month due to Middle East tensions and logistical disruptions. * The European Commission convened on 13 April 2026 to assess the impact of the energy crisis on agricultural inputs. * Nitrogen fertiliser production costs are heavily dependent on natural gas, which accounts for up to 90% of production expenses. * High fertiliser costs are not offset by current cereal prices, creating a risk of reduced farmer input usage and lower yields. * European states are calling for tax relief while the Commission prioritises structural solutions like production relocation.
366. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-monday-despite-ongoing-drought-concerns/ - Wheat futures showed mixed performance on Monday, with Chicago prices rising while Kansas City declined and Minneapolis remained steady. Ongoing drought conditions in the Plains and a recent freeze threaten the hard red winter crop, with only 30% of the crop rated good to excellent. USDA data indicates 20% of winter wheat has emerged compared to a 12% average. Global markets are monitoring planting progress in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, alongside fertilizer availability issues in the Southern Hemisphere. Export inspections for wheat increased modestly compared to last year, with shipments primarily directed to the Philippines and Mexico.
367. https://revistaforum.com.br/global/a-rota-alternativa-de-ira-e-russia-para-driblar-o-cerco-de-donald-trump/ - Russia and Iran have resumed maritime transport via the Caspian Sea to circumvent uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia shipped wheat to Iran via the Caspian, marking the first such cargo in eight years, diverting from the Black Sea route. Iran remains Russia's third-largest wheat buyer. Russia has also requested a joint grain stockpile for BRICS nations to prevent international supply shocks. Caspian shipments increased by 61% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by bilateral trade. This shift supports the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, aiming to reduce transport time between Russia and India by up to 30%.
368. https://waateanews.com/2026/04/21/economy-nz-india-seal-landmark-trade-deal-opening-door-to-billion-strong-market/ - New Zealand and India have confirmed a free trade agreement following months of negotiations concluded in under a year. The deal reduces or eliminates tariffs on approximately 95 percent of New Zealand's current exports to India, aiming to expand trade and investment flows across goods, services, and labour mobility. While sensitive agricultural sectors remain protected, the pact is designed to boost two-way trade and deepen engagement in the Indo-Pacific region, subject to formal ratification.
369. https://revistaforum.com.br/global/a-rota-alternativa-de-ira-e-russia-para-driblar-o-cerco-de-donald-trump/ - Russia and Iran have resumed maritime transport via the Caspian Sea to circumvent uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia shipped wheat to Iran via the Caspian, marking the first such cargo in eight years, diverting from the Black Sea route. Iran remains Russia's third-largest wheat buyer. Russia has also requested a joint grain stockpile for BRICS nations to prevent international supply shocks. Caspian shipments increased by 61% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by bilateral trade. This shift supports the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, aiming to reduce transport time between Russia and India by up to 30%.
370. https://revistaforum.com.br/global/a-rota-alternativa-de-ira-e-russia-para-driblar-o-cerco-de-donald-trump/ - Russia and Iran have resumed maritime transport via the Caspian Sea to circumvent uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia shipped wheat to Iran via the Caspian, marking the first such cargo in eight years, diverting from the Black Sea route. Iran remains Russia's third-largest wheat buyer. Russia has also requested a joint grain stockpile for BRICS nations to prevent international supply shocks. Caspian shipments increased by 61% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by bilateral trade. This shift supports the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, aiming to reduce transport time between Russia and India by up to 30%.
371. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/kansas-farmer-says-warm-weather-leads-to-quicker-planting-pace/ - Brett Neibling, a farmer in northeast Kansas, reports that above-normal temperatures have accelerated planting, with his area approximately 50 percent complete. While the USDA notes 17 percent of corn and 7 percent of soybeans are planted, Neibling states drought conditions persist despite recent rainfall. Winter wheat conditions are also declining, with only 24 percent rated good-to-excellent.
372. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-monday-despite-ongoing-drought-concerns/ - Wheat futures showed mixed performance on Monday, with Chicago prices rising while Kansas City declined and Minneapolis remained steady. Ongoing drought conditions in the Plains and a recent freeze threaten the hard red winter crop, with only 30% of the crop rated good to excellent. USDA data indicates 20% of winter wheat has emerged compared to a 12% average. Global markets are monitoring planting progress in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, alongside fertilizer availability issues in the Southern Hemisphere. Export inspections for wheat increased modestly compared to last year, with shipments primarily directed to the Philippines and Mexico.
373. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/market-news/wheat-mixed-monday-despite-ongoing-drought-concerns/ - Wheat futures showed mixed performance on Monday, with Chicago prices rising while Kansas City declined and Minneapolis remained steady. Ongoing drought conditions in the Plains and a recent freeze threaten the hard red winter crop, with only 30% of the crop rated good to excellent. USDA data indicates 20% of winter wheat has emerged compared to a 12% average. Global markets are monitoring planting progress in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, alongside fertilizer availability issues in the Southern Hemisphere. Export inspections for wheat increased modestly compared to last year, with shipments primarily directed to the Philippines and Mexico.
374. https://revistaforum.com.br/global/a-rota-alternativa-de-ira-e-russia-para-driblar-o-cerco-de-donald-trump/ - Russia and Iran have resumed maritime transport via the Caspian Sea to circumvent uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. Russia shipped wheat to Iran via the Caspian, marking the first such cargo in eight years, diverting from the Black Sea route. Iran remains Russia's third-largest wheat buyer. Russia has also requested a joint grain stockpile for BRICS nations to prevent international supply shocks. Caspian shipments increased by 61% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by bilateral trade. This shift supports the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, aiming to reduce transport time between Russia and India by up to 30%.
375. https://www.vaticannews.va/en/vatican-city/news/2026-04/holy-see-obeserver-to-fao-peace-essential-to-eradicate-hunger.html - Archbishop Fernando Chica Arellano, the Holy See's Permanent Observer to the FAO, called for immediate political action to stabilise markets and protect vulnerable populations during the 38th session of the Regional Conference for the Middle East. Citing systemic shocks from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and severe weather events, he warned that rising energy costs and supply chain uncertainty are exacerbating food insecurity. Echoing Pope Leo XIV, the Archbishop emphasised that peace and diplomacy are essential to sustainable development and eradicating global hunger.
376. https://southernmarylandchronicle.com/2026/04/20/charles-county-included-in-usda-drought-disaster-designation/ - On April 17, 2026, the United States Department of Agriculture designated Charles County and eight other Maryland counties as primary natural disaster zones due to severe drought conditions. This action grants producers access to USDA Farm Service Agency emergency loans to cover recovery costs such as replanting and livestock feed. Eligible farmers have eight months to apply for low-interest loans based on documented losses. The designation addresses impacts on crops, pastures, and water supplies across Southern Maryland, where drought intensity ranged from severe to exceptional levels during the growing season.
377. https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/maharashtra-sets-kharif-sowing-target-of-14520-lakh-hectares-for-2026-27-as-imd-predicts-only-92-of-normal-rainfall - Maharashtra Agriculture Minister Dattatray Bharne announced a Kharif 2026-27 sowing target of 145.20 lakh hectares despite India Meteorological Department forecasts predicting only 92% of normal rainfall. The state government is implementing climate-resilient farming practices, ensuring seed and fertiliser availability, and processing a loan waiver scheme for farmers. Compensation of ₹20,196 crore has been approved for previous crop losses. The announcement was made during a review meeting in Pune.
378. https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/kansas-farmer-says-warm-weather-leads-to-quicker-planting-pace/ - Brett Neibling, a farmer in northeast Kansas, reports that above-normal temperatures have accelerated planting, with his area approximately 50 percent complete. While the USDA notes 17 percent of corn and 7 percent of soybeans are planted, Neibling states drought conditions persist despite recent rainfall. Winter wheat conditions are also declining, with only 24 percent rated good-to-excellent.
379. https://cowsmo.com/news/how-strait-of-hormuz-volatility-impacts-farmers/ - Geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global fertilizer and fuel supplies, causing prices to soar for US farmers during peak planting season. Urea prices have risen nearly 50%, while diesel costs increased by $2 per gallon in six weeks. These supply chain disruptions threaten farm margins and may eventually impact consumer prices for food and fuel. Farmers are adapting by using alternative fertilizers like manure or shifting crop mixes, but experts warn of long-term viability risks.
380. https://www.mitchellrepublic.com/opinion/columns/guebert-planting-ramps-up-prices-hang-on-and-usda-data-gets-hammered - * USDA estimates 2026 US winter wheat acres at 32.4 million, the lowest level in 107 years, with total wheat acreage at 43.8 million. * High diesel prices in Ireland and record US motor fuel increases are squeezing farmer budgets, prompting a shift to cheaper crops like soybeans and sorghum. * Fertiliser prices for urea, anhydrous ammonia, and ammonium nitrate rose significantly in March due to Middle East uncertainties and supply constraints. * USDA's 2026 Prospective Planting report showed a 37.6 percent farmer response rate, the lowest ever, raising concerns about data accuracy and farmer trust. * Analysts suggest some of the additional corn acres may be planted to soybeans or sorghum rather than wheat due to cost pressures.
381. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/centre-allows-extra-25-lakh-tonne-wheat-exports-amid-strong-output-outlook-126042001005_1.html - The Centre permitted an additional 25 lakh tonnes of wheat for export on Monday, bringing the total allowed wheat exports to 50 lakh tonnes and wheat products to 10 lakh tonnes. The Food Ministry cited comfortable stock positions and a strong production outlook, with the 2025-26 crop year pegged at 120.2 million tonnes due to increased acreage. This move aims to enhance market liquidity, prevent distress sales, stabilise domestic prices, and support farmers' incomes while safeguarding food security.
382. https://www.mitchellrepublic.com/opinion/columns/guebert-planting-ramps-up-prices-hang-on-and-usda-data-gets-hammered - * USDA released its 2026 Prospective Planting report estimating U.S. winter wheat acres at 32.4 million, the lowest in 107 years. * Total U.S. wheat plantings are projected at 43.8 million acres, representing only half of the 1981 record high. * High fuel and fertilizer prices driven by Middle East tensions are pushing farmers toward corn and soybeans instead of wheat. * The USDA survey response rate dropped to 37.6 percent, the lowest ever, raising concerns about data accuracy. * Analysts suggest some extra corn acres may be planted to soybeans or sorghum due to higher input costs.
383. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/centre-allows-extra-25-lakh-tonne-wheat-exports-amid-strong-output-outlook-126042001005_1.html - The Centre permitted an additional 25 lakh tonnes of wheat for export on Monday, bringing the total allowed wheat exports to 50 lakh tonnes and wheat products to 10 lakh tonnes. The Food Ministry cited comfortable stock positions and a strong production outlook, with the 2025-26 crop year pegged at 120.2 million tonnes due to increased acreage. This move aims to enhance market liquidity, prevent distress sales, stabilise domestic prices, and support farmers' incomes while safeguarding food security.
384. https://www.mitchellrepublic.com/opinion/columns/guebert-planting-ramps-up-prices-hang-on-and-usda-data-gets-hammered - * USDA estimates 2026 U.S. winter wheat acres at 32.4 million, the lowest in 107 years, with total wheat acreage at 43.8 million, down from 1981 record highs. * High diesel prices in Ireland and the U.S., alongside rising fertilizer costs due to Middle East tensions, are driving farmers to plant fewer wheat acres in favor of corn and soybeans. * The USDA 2026 Prospective Planting report faced scrutiny due to a record-low 37.6 percent farmer response rate, raising concerns about data accuracy and the agency's relationship with producers. * Analysts suggest some of the additional corn acres reported by USDA may actually be planted to soybeans or sorghum as cheaper alternatives for financially strained farmers.
385. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-20-2026/ - Grain markets experienced volatility on April 20, 2026, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and severe weather in the US. Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz following a US seizure of an Iranian ship, causing oil prices to surge and fertilizer costs to spike globally. Simultaneously, harsh freezes in the US HRW wheat regions threatened crop recovery. In Canada, canola futures rebounded slightly, while wheat acreage in Australia is forecast to fall to a seven-year low due to input shortages. US buyers are redirecting fertilizer exports to capitalize on price differentials.
386. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-20-2026/ - Grain markets experienced volatility on April 20, 2026, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and severe weather in the US. Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz following a US seizure of an Iranian ship, causing oil prices to surge and fertilizer costs to spike globally. Simultaneously, harsh freezes in the US HRW wheat regions threatened crop recovery. In Canada, canola futures rebounded slightly, while wheat acreage in Australia is forecast to fall to a seven-year low due to input shortages. US buyers are redirecting fertilizer exports to capitalize on price differentials.
387. https://www.thefencepost.com/news/fertilizer-situation-remains-uncertain/ - The United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) is leading a task force to ensure fertilizer continues flowing through the Strait of Hormuz amidst wartime disruptions. The United States is urging G20 members and international financial institutions to take coordinated action to secure fertilizer access. The crisis is described as global, with countries in Africa already feeling the strain. Rising fertilizer costs may subsequently increase food prices.
388. https://www.business-standard.com/industry/agriculture/centre-allows-extra-25-lakh-tonne-wheat-exports-amid-strong-output-outlook-126042001005_1.html - The Centre permitted an additional 25 lakh tonnes of wheat for export on Monday, bringing the total allowed wheat exports to 50 lakh tonnes and wheat products to 10 lakh tonnes. The Food Ministry cited comfortable stock positions and a strong production outlook, with the 2025-26 crop year pegged at 120.2 million tonnes due to increased acreage. This move aims to enhance market liquidity, prevent distress sales, stabilise domestic prices, and support farmers' incomes while safeguarding food security.
389. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-20-2026/ - Grain markets experienced volatility on April 20, 2026, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and severe weather in the US. Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz following a US seizure of an Iranian ship, causing oil prices to surge and fertilizer costs to spike globally. Simultaneously, harsh freezes in the US HRW wheat regions threatened crop recovery. In Canada, canola futures rebounded slightly, while wheat acreage in Australia is forecast to fall to a seven-year low due to input shortages. US buyers are redirecting fertilizer exports to capitalize on price differentials.
390. https://www.producer.com/am-market-reports/am-market-report-april-20-2026/ - Grain markets experienced volatility on April 20, 2026, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and severe weather in the US. Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz following a US seizure of an Iranian ship, causing oil prices to surge and fertilizer costs to spike globally. Simultaneously, harsh freezes in the US HRW wheat regions threatened crop recovery. In Canada, canola futures rebounded slightly, while wheat acreage in Australia is forecast to fall to a seven-year low due to input shortages. US buyers are redirecting fertilizer exports to capitalize on price differentials.
391. https://agroinformacion.com/en/marketseconomics/usmca-agriculture-review-2026-draws-bipartisan-push-from-41-senators-urging-strong-market-access-before-july-deadline/ - On April 16, 2026, 41 US senators signed a letter to USTR Jamieson Greer demanding robust protections for American agricultural market access during the mandatory USMCA Joint Review. With the review deadline set for July 1, 2026, senators highlighted that US agricultural exports reached $176 billion in 2024, with Canada and Mexico as key markets. Amidst declining farm income and global trade disruptions, the bipartisan group argues that the agreement's rules-based framework is critical for US competitiveness in the Western Hemisphere.
392. https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/trucker-strike-continues-paralyze-grain-418206 - A small group of truckers continue to block grain exports from Argentina's Quequen port, holding up at least $450 million in shipments. Despite most of the sector accepting new rates after a strike lasting over two weeks, these truckers persist in the blockade. More than 30 ships remain waiting with between 700,000 and 1.5 million tons of grains. Operations in Bahia Blanca have normalised, and the port area of Rosario remains unaffected.
393. https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/first-tranche-of-trade-deal-with-us-almost-finalised-trying-to-work-out-mechanism-for-india-getting-preferential-market-access-piyush-goyal/ - Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the first tranche of the bilateral trade agreement between India and the United States is almost finalised. Negotiations resumed in Washington DC to determine the mechanism for India's preferential market access compared to competitors. The framework, launched in February 2025, aims to strengthen supply chains and increase bilateral trade by 2030.
394. https://www.etvbharat.com/en/bharat/indian-delegation-to-visit-us-for-trade-talks-says-sergio-gor-enn26042006644 - An Indian trade delegation led by Additional Secretary Darpan Jain is visiting Washington this week to finalise a bilateral trade agreement with the US. The visit follows a recent conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump, which renewed momentum in negotiations. The delegation includes officials from the customs department and the Ministry of External Affairs. Talks aim to revisit the agreement framework after recent changes to US tariff policies.
395. https://www.indianewsstream.com/first-tranche-of-india-us-trade-deal-almost-finalised-piyush-goyal/ - Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that the first tranche of the India-US bilateral trade agreement is nearly finalised. A delegation led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain is in Washington to discuss mechanisms for preferential market access. Talks were rescheduled following a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump's reciprocal tariff hikes, which had previously altered the tariff structure agreed upon by both nations.
396. https://www.agdaily.com/weather/record-drought-disappearing-water-tighten-the-screws-on-farmers/ - Record drought conditions affecting over 61% of the contiguous United States and critically low snowpack levels in the West are creating structural challenges for US agriculture. Experts warn that warmer temperatures are accelerating water loss through evaporation and plant uptake, reducing reliable water supplies for irrigation. These conditions increase the risk of reduced crop yields, herd liquidation, and long-term production capacity issues, potentially impacting global food security.
397. https://www.agdaily.com/weather/record-drought-disappearing-water-tighten-the-screws-on-farmers/ - Record drought conditions affecting over 61% of the contiguous United States and critically low snowpack levels in the West are creating structural challenges for US agriculture. Experts warn that warmer temperatures are accelerating water loss through evaporation and plant uptake, reducing reliable water supplies for irrigation. These conditions increase the risk of reduced crop yields, herd liquidation, and long-term production capacity issues, potentially impacting global food security.
398. https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260420-merz-and-lula-celebrate-eu%E2%80%93mercosur-deal-but-french-resistance-holds-fast - The European Union and Mercosur bloc have agreed to make their long-awaited trade deal provisionally effective from 1 May, following over 25 years of negotiations. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva celebrated the pact as a milestone for open trade and global resilience. However, the move faces significant resistance from France, where President Emmanuel Macron and agricultural unions oppose the agreement due to fears of cheaper imports undermining European farming standards. The European Commission proceeds with implementation while the deal awaits a final ruling from the EU's top court.
399. https://www.rfdtv.com/tariff-rollback-refunds-begin-as-usda-targets-the-ag-trade-deficit-reduction - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is intensifying efforts to reduce the agricultural trade deficit, which has fallen by 42% to $29 billion in one year. Undersecretary Luke Lindberg highlights the success of the US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement and ongoing negotiations with Vietnam. While a major tariff refund process for importers begins following a Supreme Court decision, agriculture groups are urging the U.S. Trade Representative to expand investigations into foreign subsidies affecting farm commodities.
400. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/middle-east-conflict-deepens-hunger-in-east-africa-wtj8jba3 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating food shortages in East Africa by disrupting global fertiliser, fuel, and shipping schedules through the Strait of Hormuz. Mercy Corps reports that a 68 percent surge in urea fertiliser prices and reduced availability are limiting crop yields for the 2026–2027 harvests in vulnerable countries like Somalia and Ethiopia. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation warns that disruptions lasting over 40 days have locked in negative impacts on global food supply. Additionally, fuel prices in Kenya have risen sharply, increasing transport costs and threatening food security for millions more globally.
401. https://www.news18.com/india/win-win-for-both-indian-delegation-to-visit-us-next-week-to-finalise-trade-deal-says-sergio-gor-ws-l-10045990.html - An Indian trade delegation led by Additional Secretary Darpan Jain is visiting Washington to finalise a bilateral trade deal with the US. US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor described the visit as a win-win for both nations. Discussions will revisit the agreement framework finalised in February, covering tariff reductions and investigations under Section 301 of US trade law. The talks occur amidst shifts in the US trade environment following recent Supreme Court rulings on tariffs.
402. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-doubles-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/article70884223.ece - The Government of India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat for export, doubling the total permitted volume to 5 million tonnes. This decision, following inter-ministerial committee approval, aims to support farmer returns while maintaining domestic market stability. Although a formal Directorate General of Foreign Trade notification is pending, the move acknowledges increased Rabi 2026 acreage and production capacity. Exporters must apply for permits online within the first 10 days of each month and complete shipments within six months. The 2022 export ban remains in place for general trade, with exceptions for friendly nations and specific diaspora product allowances.
403. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-doubles-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/article70884223.ece - The Government of India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat for export, doubling the total permitted volume to 5 million tonnes. This decision, following inter-ministerial committee approval, aims to support farmer returns while maintaining domestic market stability. Although a formal Directorate General of Foreign Trade notification is pending, the move acknowledges increased Rabi 2026 acreage and production capacity. Exporters must apply for permits online within the first 10 days of each month and complete shipments within six months. The 2022 export ban remains in place for general trade, with exceptions for friendly nations and specific diaspora product allowances.
404. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/levant/jordan-boosts-food-security-resilience-as-regional-volatility-costs-rise-jyys4kun - Jordan's agricultural sector achieved 7 per cent growth in the final quarter of 2025, contributing 5.4 per cent to GDP. The Kingdom maintains robust food reserves, including wheat for 10 months and barley for nine months, to mitigate regional volatility. Government interventions, such as tax suspensions on shipping surcharges and targeted subsidies, have decoupled domestic food prices from global spikes. UN data indicates a structural improvement in nutrition, with undernourishment falling to 14.3 per cent.
405. https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/africa/middle-east-conflict-deepens-hunger-in-east-africa-wtj8jba3 - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating food shortages in East Africa by disrupting global fertiliser, fuel, and shipping schedules through the Strait of Hormuz. Mercy Corps reports that a 68 percent surge in urea fertiliser prices and reduced availability are limiting crop yields for the 2026–2027 harvests in vulnerable countries like Somalia and Ethiopia. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation warns that disruptions lasting over 40 days have locked in negative impacts on global food supply. Additionally, fuel prices in Kenya have risen sharply, increasing transport costs and threatening food security for millions more globally.
406. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-doubles-wheat-export-quota-to-5-million-tonnes/article70884223.ece - The Government of India has approved an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat for export, doubling the total permitted volume to 5 million tonnes. This decision, following inter-ministerial committee approval, aims to support farmer returns while maintaining domestic market stability. Although a formal Directorate General of Foreign Trade notification is pending, the move acknowledges increased Rabi 2026 acreage and production capacity. Exporters must apply for permits online within the first 10 days of each month and complete shipments within six months. The 2022 export ban remains in place for general trade, with exceptions for friendly nations and specific diaspora product allowances.
407. https://www.haberler.com/ekonomi/g20-de-gida-ve-gubre-gorusmeleri-basliyor-19767577-haberi/ - The US Treasury Department announced that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold discussions on food and fertiliser issues in the coming weeks. The talks, scheduled for April 16 in Washington, will address the economic impact of the Middle East conflict on agricultural markets and supply chains. Participants emphasised the importance of maintaining supply chains for low-income and fragile nations and agreed that export bans on fertiliser should not be imposed. The US, as G20 presidency holder, committed to further meetings on these topics to promote food security and market stability.
408. https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/ifc-considers-funding-pampa-energias-6000td-argentine-urea-project - The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is evaluating a US$1.5bn loan request from Pampa Energía for the Pampa Fertil urea facility in Bahía Blanca, Argentina. The project aims to produce 6,000 tonnes per day of urea for domestic use and export, starting construction in August. This initiative seeks to reduce Argentina's structural dependence on fertilizer imports, which rose by 28% last year, by leveraging local natural gas resources.
409. https://www.haberler.com/ekonomi/g20-de-gida-ve-gubre-gorusmeleri-basliyor-19767577-haberi/ - The US Treasury Department announced that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold discussions on food and fertiliser issues in the coming weeks. The talks, scheduled for April 16 in Washington, will address the economic impact of the Middle East conflict on agricultural markets and supply chains. Participants emphasised the importance of maintaining supply chains for low-income and fragile nations and agreed that export bans on fertiliser should not be imposed. The US, as G20 presidency holder, committed to further meetings on these topics to promote food security and market stability.
410. https://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/la-agricultura-recibe-menores-precios-relativos-y-por-eso-crece-menos-de-lo-que-podria-crecer-indico-un-ex-secretario-de-agricultura.phtml - Marcelo Regúnaga, former Argentine Agriculture Secretary, stated on Canal E that the agricultural sector grows less than potential due to lower relative prices. He attributed this to Mercosur's customs union structure limiting free trade negotiations, higher export taxes compared to competitors, and weak internal support for foreign trade. Regúnaga argued that Argentina receives lower prices for exports because of these barriers and called for a more aggressive export strategy and Mercosur flexibility.
411. https://www.morningagclips.com/us-set-to-use-tariff-funds-to-address-high-fertilizer-prices/ - Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated the Trump administration intends to utilise tens of billions of dollars from tariffs and trade deal renegotiations to strengthen domestic fertilizer supplies. Following a meeting with top fertilizer company executives, officials aim to announce a full plan next week to reshore production and invest in infrastructure. While acknowledging that prices may not drop immediately, the administration is working to address market concentration and supply constraints, with a 60-day Jones Act waiver also allowing more Venezuelan fertilizer imports. A recent survey indicates 70% of US farmers cannot currently afford all needed fertilizer.
412. https://bnn-news.com/opinion-ban-on-belarusian-fertilizer-transit-fuels-russias-war-treasury-279463 - An opinion piece argues that the EU ban on Belarusian potash fertilizer transit generates approximately $576 million annually for Russia, funding its war against Ukraine. While the US lifted sanctions on Belarusian producers, transit through EU countries remains restricted, forcing rerouting to Russian ports. Concurrently, conflicts in the Persian Gulf have disrupted nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer supplies, driving up global prices and increasing hunger risks in developing nations.
413. https://www.financial-news.co.uk/how-hedge-funds-are-using-satellite-imagery-to-front-run-global-crop-shortages/ - Quantitative hedge funds in New York utilise satellite imagery and machine learning models to predict global crop yields, such as in India and Ukraine, up to 30 days before official government forecasts. By analysing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, these firms identify stressed plants and supply disruptions to generate short-term trading returns of 4-5%. While this technology offers significant informational advantages, it raises ethical concerns regarding food insecurity and relies on complex models that require constant recalibration to avoid errors.
414. https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF/5264521-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%BA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%A3%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B2%D8%AA-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A - IFAD warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global shock to food security. Gerardine Mukihimana, IFAD Vice President, stated that supply chain disruptions for fertilizers and fuel, rising input costs, and reduced purchasing power threaten agricultural production during a critical season. The situation risks igniting food prices and severely impacting the world's most vulnerable populations, including smallholder farmers who produce a third of global food. IFAD reports significant shipping delays and export declines, predicting a domino effect leading to reduced yields, higher prices, and potential famine.
415. https://thenarwhal.ca/saskatchewan-farmers-climate-change-yields/ - Saskatchewan farmers experience variable impacts from climate change, with some seeing improved yields in warmer, drier regions like northeast Saskatchewan due to longer growing seasons and better crop genetics. Conversely, farmers in the Palliser Triangle face severe drought, with some losing significant harvests. Overall, crop production has not declined sharply, attributed to resilient farming practices and improved soil health, though future drought risks remain a concern for specific areas.
416. https://aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF/5264521-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%B7-%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D8%BA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%A3%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B2%D8%AA-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A - IFAD warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a global shock to food security. Gerardine Mukihimana, IFAD Vice President, stated that supply chain disruptions for fertilizers and fuel, rising input costs, and reduced purchasing power threaten agricultural production during a critical season. The situation risks igniting food prices and severely impacting the world's most vulnerable populations, including smallholder farmers who produce a third of global food. IFAD reports significant shipping delays and export declines, predicting a domino effect leading to reduced yields, higher prices, and potential famine.
417. https://thenarwhal.ca/saskatchewan-farmers-climate-change-yields/ - Saskatchewan farmers experience variable impacts from climate change, with some seeing improved yields in warmer, drier regions like northeast Saskatchewan due to longer growing seasons and better crop genetics. Conversely, farmers in the Palliser Triangle face severe drought, with some losing significant harvests. Overall, crop production has not declined sharply, attributed to resilient farming practices and improved soil health, though future drought risks remain a concern for specific areas.
418. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/exclusive-us-host-further-g20-talks-wars-impact-food-and-fertilizer - The United States, current G20 chair, will host further talks in coming weeks regarding the impact of the Middle East war on food and fertilizer supplies. During a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on April 16, officials discussed economic impacts and agriculture markets but stopped short of announcing a coordinated agreement. While a majority supported the US-led initiative to ensure fertilizer access, some members could not confirm action immediately. The IMF warns the war could leave 45 million more people facing food insecurity due to supply chain disruptions. Staff-level engagements will continue to build toward an actionable consensus.
419. https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/2026/04/20/sustitucion-de-importaciones-de-asia-tema-de-greer-en-mexico/ - Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard confirmed that replacing Asian imports is a central topic in upcoming US-Mexico trade negotiations. Jamieson Greer, US Trade Representative, will visit Mexico on April 19-20 to discuss supply chain integration before the T-MEC review on July 1. Negotiators aim to reduce North American dependence on external imports through vertical integration, potentially including a common external tariff against China. Mexico maintains its stance on tariff elimination while addressing existing Section 232 tensions and agricultural quotas.
420. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/agmarket-net-early-morning-market-analysis-4-20-26/ - US grain markets opened mixed on April 20, 2026, with corn and soybeans down while wheat and crude oil rose. Patchy frost in the southern wheat plains and dry conditions in the Delta added stress to crops, though rain is forecast for week 2. Planting progress is expected to gain, with corn estimated at 8-9% complete. Traders remain cautious regarding weather relief and await potential soybean purchases from China following upcoming meetings between US and Chinese leaders.
421. https://www.maravipost.com/sharp-focus-red-sea-tensions-hidden-threat-to-malawis-fragile-economy/ - Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt global oil and fertilizer shipments, directly impacting Malawi's landlocked economy. Rising global fuel prices would increase domestic transport costs and the price of agricultural inputs, exacerbating food insecurity. Malawi's heavy reliance on imported petroleum and foreign exchange shortages heighten vulnerability to these external shocks. Policymakers face difficult choices regarding subsidies versus consumer costs, while supply chain delays could further strain food production.
422. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/exclusive-us-host-further-g20-talks-wars-impact-food-and-fertilizer - The United States, current G20 chair, will host further talks in coming weeks regarding the impact of the Middle East war on food and fertilizer supplies. During a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on April 16, officials discussed economic impacts and agriculture markets but stopped short of announcing a coordinated agreement. While a majority supported the US-led initiative to ensure fertilizer access, some members could not confirm action immediately. The IMF warns the war could leave 45 million more people facing food insecurity due to supply chain disruptions. Staff-level engagements will continue to build toward an actionable consensus.
423. https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-agro-industry-falls-february-fertilizer-hormuz/ - Brazil's agro-industrial output contracted 1.9% year-over-year in February, according to the FGV Agro PIMAgro index. The non-food segment collapsed 5.5% due to an 11.5% drop in input manufacturing, including fertilizers and machinery. While biofuels surged 33.5%, the data reflects a pre-war baseline as the Iran conflict began on February 28. Experts warn that March and April figures will show further contractions due to Hormuz Strait disruptions and rising input costs.
424. https://www.agrinotizie.com/2026/04/20/guerra-in-medio-oriente-e-crisi-dei-costi-agricoli-europa-sotto-pressione-per-carburanti-e-fertilizzanti/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=guerra-in-medio-oriente-e-crisi-dei-costi-agricoli-europa-sotto-pressione-per-carburanti-e-fertilizzanti - The war launched by the US and Israel against Iran on 28 February continues to impact global agricultural economics. The FAO highlighted risks regarding fuel and fertilizer availability and prices during the spring sowing phase. Failed peace talks and a US decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz prolong the crisis. The Italian Government urged the European Commission for extraordinary measures. Sottosegretario Patrizio La Pietra noted the suspension of fertilizer duties from January 14. A 20% tax credit for fuel expenses in March was introduced. Organizations Copa-Cogeca, Confagricoltura, Coldiretti, CIA, and Altragricoltura are calling for coordinated European emergency plans to support productivity and contain rising production costs.
425. https://cryptobriefing.com/us-to-refund-166b-in-trump-tariffs-after-supreme-court-ruling/ - The US government has initiated refunds of up to $166 billion in tariffs imposed under President Trump following a Supreme Court ruling that declared the tariffs unlawful. This judicial decision voids the tariffs and acts as a check on executive trade powers, reducing the likelihood of immediate EU retaliatory measures. Market odds for EU retaliation by September 30 have dropped by 25%, though trading volume remains low. The Treasury Department and US Trade Representative are expected to monitor potential policy shifts.
426. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/usda-secretary-rollins-urges-expansion-of-key-farm-funding-tool/ - USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has called on Congress to raise the $30 billion borrowing limit for the Commodity Credit Corporation. She argues the current cap is insufficient to cover rising production costs, market volatility, and disaster relief needs. Farm groups support the request, citing inflation and uncertainty. Any increase requires legislative approval and may be linked to broader farm bill negotiations ahead of the 2026 season.
427. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/agmarket-net-early-morning-market-analysis-4-20-26/ - US grain markets opened mixed on April 20, 2026, with corn and soybeans down while wheat and crude oil rose. Patchy frost in the southern wheat plains and dry conditions in the Delta added stress to crops, though rain is forecast for week 2. Planting progress is expected to gain, with corn estimated at 8-9% complete. Traders remain cautious regarding weather relief and await potential soybean purchases from China following upcoming meetings between US and Chinese leaders.
428. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/04/exclusive-us-host-further-g20-talks-wars-impact-food-and-fertilizer - The United States, current G20 chair, will host further talks in coming weeks regarding the impact of the Middle East war on food and fertilizer supplies. During a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on April 16, officials discussed economic impacts and agriculture markets but stopped short of announcing a coordinated agreement. While a majority supported the US-led initiative to ensure fertilizer access, some members could not confirm action immediately. The IMF warns the war could leave 45 million more people facing food insecurity due to supply chain disruptions. Staff-level engagements will continue to build toward an actionable consensus.
429. https://www.americanagnetwork.com/2026/04/20/agmarket-net-early-morning-market-analysis-4-20-26/ - US grain markets opened mixed on April 20, 2026, with corn and soybeans down while wheat and crude oil rose. Patchy frost in the southern wheat plains and dry conditions in the Delta added stress to crops, though rain is forecast for week 2. Planting progress is expected to gain, with corn estimated at 8-9% complete. Traders remain cautious regarding weather relief and await potential soybean purchases from China following upcoming meetings between US and Chinese leaders.
430. https://www.rfdtv.com/fertilizer-supply-tightens-as-imports-fall-and-transportation-slows - US fertilizer supplies are tightening before the spring planting season. USDA data indicates a 7% drop in imports during the second half of 2025, with phosphate products declining sharply. While domestic production is steady, it cannot fully replace reduced imports. Transportation bottlenecks, particularly on the Mississippi River, and global disruptions in the Middle East are further constraining availability and driving up prices for nitrogen and phosphorus.
431. https://www.johnlocke.org/trump-tariffs-have-murky-impact-on-american-agricultural-trade/ - One year after the implementation of tariffs, the outlook for US agriculture remains uncertain. While agricultural imports fell significantly in 2025 due to higher tariffs, the administration granted exemptions for some commodities to mitigate food price increases. However, higher tariffs persist for many products, raising costs for domestic processors and households. Exports have suffered due to Chinese retaliation and Canadian boycotts. Future market access depends on trade deals containing controversial clauses that may undermine US credibility. Additionally, legal challenges regarding the status of these agreements under the IEEPA and potential reinstatement of supplemental tariffs create further uncertainty for the sector.
432. https://www.agweek.com/agribusiness/le-mars-agri-center-opens-new-fertilizer-facility - * Le Mars Agri-Center in Iowa opened a new automated fertilizer facility with a 5,500-ton holding capacity, five times larger than its previous building. * The facility uses NTEP-certified scales to weigh individual ingredients like urea, DAP, potash, and AMS, eliminating the need to weigh trucks at the field. * General manager Brian Harpenau notes that while supply is currently adequate, higher fertilizer prices driven by geopolitical factors are causing tight margins and potential 10% cutbacks in farmer usage. * The business expansion aims to meet growing customer demand within a 70- to 90-mile radius despite challenges in the nitrogen and phosphate markets.
433. https://www.goodreturns.in/news/india-us-trade-deal-talks-to-begin-in-washington-from-april-20-to-22-bta-tariffs-reset-and-imports-1503285.html - India and the United States are scheduled to commence a three-day round of trade negotiations in Washington from April 20 to 22, 2026. The discussions, led by Indian chief negotiator Darpan Jain, aim to finalise the first phase of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Talks follow a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down broad reciprocal tariffs, leading to a temporary 10% flat tariff on all imports. Key agenda items include reworking tariff advantages, recalibrating commitments, and restoring export competitiveness amidst shifting trade dynamics where China has overtaken the US as India's largest trading partner.
434. https://www.news18.com/world/tariffs-section-301-probe-and-more-where-trade-deal-stands-as-india-us-return-to-the-table-ws-l-10045107.html - An Indian delegation led by chief negotiator Darpan Jain arrived in Washington on April 20, 2026, to resume trade negotiations with the United States. The discussions aim to advance a proposed bilateral trade agreement, starting with a limited phase one deal, following a recent conversation between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. Talks address tariffs, market access, and ongoing US Section 301 investigations. While previous drafts included significant tariff reductions, a new uniform US tariff has necessitated recalibration. Sticking points remain regarding agriculture, dairy, and regulatory standards, with both sides seeking to convert political momentum into tangible progress.
435. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/04/20/the-impending-global-food-shock-is-preventable-a4925809 - A potential war in the Gulf threatens to disrupt critical agricultural supply chains, exacerbating existing hunger in Africa and Asia. The Strait of Hormuz blockage risks cutting off 30% of global fertiliser and essential energy sources, while a powerful El Niño event is expected to cause severe droughts and floods. Experts warn that without immediate international action to allow fertiliser passage and redirect resources from biofuels to food aid, an additional 45 million people could face starvation by mid-year.
436. https://www.miragenews.com/conflict-strains-near-east-agrifood-systems-fao-1658245/ - At the 38th Session of the FAO Regional Conference for the Near East in Rome, FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned that the 2026 conflict in the Middle East is severely pressuring agrifood systems and global supply chains. The crisis disrupts food production, trade, and distribution, exacerbated by rising energy prices and fertilizer market issues. The conference, chaired by the UAE, focused on strengthening supply chains, diversifying sources, investing in infrastructure, and fostering partnerships to ensure food security and resilience in the region.
437. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/04/20/the-impending-global-food-shock-is-preventable-a4925809 - A potential war in the Gulf threatens to disrupt critical agricultural supply chains, exacerbating existing hunger in Africa and Asia. The Strait of Hormuz blockage risks cutting off 30% of global fertiliser and essential energy sources, while a powerful El Niño event is expected to cause severe droughts and floods. Experts warn that without immediate international action to allow fertiliser passage and redirect resources from biofuels to food aid, an additional 45 million people could face starvation by mid-year.
438. https://propakistani.pk/2026/04/20/urea-sales-drop-to-6-year-low-after-end-of-discounts/ - Pakistan's urea sales fell to a 24-quarter low of 1.04 million tons in the first quarter of 2026. This decline follows the removal of discounts that previously encouraged heavy advance purchases in late 2025. The drop reflects a temporary correction after front-loaded demand rather than a structural decline in fertilizer usage, though it highlights broader pressures within the agriculture sector.
439. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/20/oil-prices-rise-markets-fall-us-iran-ftse-100-gas-strait-of-hormuz - * The US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted hopes for a ceasefire and peace negotiations. * Market analysts warn that the blockade could trigger a fertiliser shortage, posing a significant risk to global food security. * Chicago wheat futures rose 1.7% amid concerns over supply chain disruptions and potential input cost inflation. * Wholesale gas prices in the UK increased by 5.8%, exacerbating fears of higher agricultural input costs. * Energy companies saw share price gains while airline stocks fell due to jet fuel shortage concerns.
440. https://www.logisticsinsider.in/which-alternate-routes-kept-west-asian-exports-going/ - India maintained essential export flows to West Asia despite an 58% drop in total trade volumes by diversifying logistics. Strategies included using Khorfakkan Port as a transshipment hub, activating the Oman-UAE Green Corridor, and leveraging air freight via carriers like Air India and Emirates. While non-essential goods faced setbacks, these interventions ensured critical supplies reached Gulf and Levant markets through ports such as Jeddah, Aqaba, and Salalah.
441. https://bhaskarlive.in/india-new-zealand-fta-to-be-signed-on-april-27-as-legal-vetting-completed/ - Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay confirmed that legal verification for the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement is complete, with signing scheduled for April 27 in New Delhi. The agreement eliminates or reduces tariffs on 95% of New Zealand's exports, granting duty-free access for 57% of goods from day one. It provides exporters with access to 1.4 billion people and aims to secure a Most Favoured Nation clause for wine and services. The text will undergo parliamentary scrutiny following the signing.
442. https://www.farmersguide.co.uk/arable/weed-pest-management/dont-leave-yield-unprotected-at-t1/ - David Griffiths, fungicides technical manager for Adama, advises including Arizona fungicide in T1 sprays for winter wheat to combat septoria and rusts. Seven years of trial data indicate an average positive yield response of 0.31t/ha. The multi-site fungicide is recommended to protect crops from disease resistance and maintain green leaf area duration, particularly in regions with high inoculum levels.
443. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/20/oil-prices-rise-markets-fall-us-iran-ftse-100-gas-strait-of-hormuz - * Chicago wheat futures rose 1.7% to $6.09-1/4 a bushel following a 5% increase the previous week. * Rising oil prices and the seizure of an Iranian vessel have triggered fears of a fertiliser shortage, a vital commodity passing through the Strait of Hormuz. * Analysts warn that disruptions to shipping in the region pose a significant risk to global food security. * The conflict has caused broader market volatility, with Brent crude rising 5% and airline stocks falling due to jet fuel concerns. * UK wholesale gas prices increased 5.8% to 102p a therm, exacerbating energy cost pressures.
444. https://www.sheepcentral.com/indonesia-deal-to-deliver-250000-tonnes-of-urea-to-australia/ - Incitec Pivot Fertilisers and PT Pupuk Indonesia have agreed to supply 250,000 tonnes of agricultural-grade urea to Australia for the current season. Supported by Australian and Indonesian governments, this deal addresses supply constraints caused by conflict in the Persian Gulf. The shipment represents approximately 20% of remaining fertiliser needs, aiding regional food security. Concurrently, the Australian government introduced biosecurity process changes to expedite imports from non-traditional sources like Nigeria and Oman. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also visited Brunei and Malaysia to secure fuel and fertiliser supplies following a fire at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery.
445. https://globalkashmir.net/heatwave-across-northwest-central-eastern-india-from-today-western-disturbance-on-april-23-may-bring-relief/ - The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed a heatwave affecting Northwest, Central, and East India starting April 20, with temperatures rising 2-4°C in the northwest. States including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Punjab, Haryana, and Odisha are under alert. While a Western Disturbance is expected on April 23 to offer relief, authorities have issued safety warnings for residents. Raipur recorded temperatures exceeding 43°C, prompting a yellow alert for Central Chhattisgarh.
446. https://www.beefcentral.com/lotfeeding/feedgrain-focus-growers-hold-as-dry-concerns-spread/ - Wheat and barley prices have firmed across southern Australia due to drought concerns in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Growers in Victoria and South Australia are planting winter crops into full subsoil moisture profiles. Feedlots and consumers are pulling grain from central NSW, with buyers seeking cover against crop uncertainty. Diesel costs remain elevated due to the Iran-US conflict, impacting freight rates. Urea cargoes are being diverted south to support planting programs.
447. https://www.beefcentral.com/lotfeeding/feedgrain-focus-growers-hold-as-dry-concerns-spread/ - Wheat and barley prices have firmed across southern Australia due to drought concerns in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Growers in Victoria and South Australia are planting winter crops into full subsoil moisture profiles. Feedlots and consumers are pulling grain from central NSW, with buyers seeking cover against crop uncertainty. Diesel costs remain elevated due to the Iran-US conflict, impacting freight rates. Urea cargoes are being diverted south to support planting programs.
448. https://www.beefcentral.com/lotfeeding/feedgrain-focus-growers-hold-as-dry-concerns-spread/ - Wheat and barley prices have firmed across southern Australia due to drought concerns in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Growers in Victoria and South Australia are planting winter crops into full subsoil moisture profiles. Feedlots and consumers are pulling grain from central NSW, with buyers seeking cover against crop uncertainty. Diesel costs remain elevated due to the Iran-US conflict, impacting freight rates. Urea cargoes are being diverted south to support planting programs.
449. https://www.beefcentral.com/lotfeeding/feedgrain-focus-growers-hold-as-dry-concerns-spread/ - Wheat and barley prices have firmed across southern Australia due to drought concerns in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Growers in Victoria and South Australia are planting winter crops into full subsoil moisture profiles. Feedlots and consumers are pulling grain from central NSW, with buyers seeking cover against crop uncertainty. Diesel costs remain elevated due to the Iran-US conflict, impacting freight rates. Urea cargoes are being diverted south to support planting programs.
450. https://dailypioneer.com/news/india-us-chief-negotiators-to-begin-three-day-trade-pact-talks-in-washington - India and the US will hold three-day trade talks in Washington DC from April 20 to 22, 2026, led by Indian negotiator Darpan Jain. Discussions will focus on recalibrating the bilateral trade agreement framework due to recent changes in US tariff policies, including a uniform 10 per cent tariff imposed by the Trump administration following a Supreme Court ruling. The meetings also address ongoing unilateral investigations under Section 301 of US trade law.
451. https://arunachaltimes.in/index.php/2026/04/20/fertiliser-food-to-be-hit/ - The West Asian conflict has disrupted global fertiliser supplies, causing shipments to pile up near the Strait of Hormuz and forcing plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia to reduce output due to rising gas prices. China has restricted exports, while Russia faces production constraints from the war in Ukraine. These disruptions are raising input costs and freight charges, threatening food security in India and other nations. Although the Indian government reports adequate stock levels and is diversifying sources, a new study warns that rising global temperatures will further degrade India's food security index, exacerbating risks for a population dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture.
452. https://arunachaltimes.in/index.php/2026/04/20/fertiliser-food-to-be-hit/ - The West Asian conflict has disrupted global fertiliser supplies, causing shipments to pile up near the Strait of Hormuz and forcing plants in India, Algeria, and Slovakia to reduce output due to rising gas prices. China has restricted exports, while Russia faces production constraints from the war in Ukraine. These disruptions are raising input costs and freight charges, threatening food security in India and other nations. Although the Indian government reports adequate stock levels and is diversifying sources, a new study warns that rising global temperatures will further degrade India's food security index, exacerbating risks for a population dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture.
453. https://www.thedcn.com.au/news/supply-chain-risks-from-ongoing-strait-of-hormuz-closure - Dr Ethan Nikookar of the University of Wollongong warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy could trigger one of the most significant global supply chain shocks in history. The expert highlights immediate risks including insurance cost increases, vessel movement limitations, and delays affecting countries like Australia. He notes that even after reopening, the region may remain classified as high-risk, creating a bottleneck effect with higher prices and long lead times for essential goods such as fuel and synthetic fertilisers.
454. https://www.thenews.pk/print/1411111-punjab-to-lift-wheat-purchase-quota-to-hit-procurement-goal - The Punjab government convened a meeting to increase wheat procurement quotas for aggregators, aiming to meet the 3.0 million ton target for the 2026-27 season. Currently, only 10 of 35 potential aggregators are active due to banking reluctance, covering just 1.8 million tons. The government has secured commitments from private parties and revised tripartite agreements to assume price risk and guarantee offtake. Procurement is scheduled until 15 June, though farmers express concerns over delays and the unworkability of the Rs3,500 per 40kg rate.
455. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/fertiliser-challenge-india-iran-war-10645383/ - The United States-Israel versus Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused a near doubling of fertiliser prices in India within two months. Urea import bids rose from $508 to $935 per tonne, while ammonia and sulphur prices also surged. Domestic production is constrained by liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply disruptions, with output dropping to 1.5 million tonnes in March. The shortage poses a significant challenge for the upcoming kharif crop season, potentially forcing a shift towards alternative fertilisers like triple super phosphate or biostimulants to maintain agricultural yields.
456. https://www.thedailystar.net/business/economy/news/wheat-imports-exceed-fy25-total-25-months-go-4153331 - Bangladesh imported 62.35 lakh tonnes of wheat in FY25, surpassing the previous year's total of 67.68 lakh tonnes within just nine and a half months of FY26. Driven by lower global prices, shifting consumption patterns, and efforts to narrow the trade gap with the United States, imports are projected to reach 72 lakh tonnes by year-end. The Ministry of Food and importers attribute the surge to international price drops from $275-$280 to $255 per tonne and higher domestic demand due to population growth and rising living standards, with Argentina emerging as a key supplier following India's export ban.
457. https://news.robotfx.org/2026/04/update-speculators-trim-bearish-bets-in.html - Speculative traders reduced their bearish exposure in U.S. wheat futures, with the net short position easing from -18.7K to -18.4K contracts. Data updated on 17 April 2026 by the CFTC indicates a modest reduction in negative bets, suggesting a marginal shift away from pessimism. Although the market remains in net short territory, the change signals a cautious reassessment of price risks and supply-demand dynamics by participants.
458. https://www.bespacific.com/the-strait-that-shook-the-world/ - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global fertiliser production, with 30% of exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas passing through it. A closure would disrupt urea and ammonia supplies, impacting crop yields in major agricultural regions including Brazil, India, South Africa, and Europe. This disruption would drive up food prices, causing inflation in wealthy nations and hunger elsewhere. Gulf states face their own food security risks as 70% of their imports normally transit the strait, now facing rerouting delays and higher costs. Iran has suspended exports, further straining the region's food supply.
459. https://sleconomynow.blogspot.com/2026/04/strait-of-hormuz-crisis.html - Following US-Israeli military strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, causing the International Energy Agency to declare the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. Tanker traffic collapsed by 81%, with oil prices surging to $132 per barrel in physical markets. A subsequent attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex on March 18 forced a force majeure on all exports, disrupting 12-14% of Europe's gas supply and driving urea fertilizer prices up 50%. The crisis has resulted in approximately $20 billion per day in global GDP losses over 51 days, with models predicting trillions in cumulative damage and severe risks to 2027 food security due to fertilizer shortages.
460. https://weeklyvoice.com/heatwave-tightens-grip-on-north-india-as-temperatures-surge-across-punjab-haryana-and-himachal-pradesh/ - A developing heatwave is affecting large parts of North India, with daytime temperatures in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh rising 3.1°C to 5°C above seasonal averages. The India Meteorological Department forecasts further increases of 2°C to 4°C by April 24, with localized conditions expected between April 21 and 23. Temperatures have exceeded 40°C in isolated areas, creating challenges for farmers selling wheat at mandis due to heat stress and lack of facilities. While nighttime temperatures remain near norms, gusty winds offer limited relief.
461. https://weeklyvoice.com/heatwave-tightens-grip-on-north-india-as-temperatures-surge-across-punjab-haryana-and-himachal-pradesh/ - A developing heatwave is affecting large parts of North India, with daytime temperatures in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh rising 3.1°C to 5°C above seasonal averages. The India Meteorological Department forecasts further increases of 2°C to 4°C by April 24, with localized conditions expected between April 21 and 23. Temperatures have exceeded 40°C in isolated areas, creating challenges for farmers selling wheat at mandis due to heat stress and lack of facilities. While nighttime temperatures remain near norms, gusty winds offer limited relief.
462. https://jornaldebrasilia.com.br/noticias/economia/abre-e-fecha-de-hormuz-amplia-incerteza-no-agronegocio-brasileiro-que-teme-por-proxima-safra/ - Brazilian agribusiness operators face increased uncertainty and costs due to the closure of the Hormuz Strait, a critical route for exports to the Middle East and China. The closure disrupts the flow of agricultural commodities and, more critically, imports of essential fertilizers like urea and sulphur. Companies report a 50% increase in delivery times and the imposition of a 'war premium' on logistics. Experts warn that delays in fertilizer arrival could impact the upcoming harvest and food prices in the second half of the year.
463. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-20/russia-poised-to-capitalise-from-global-fertiliser-crisis/106565418 - A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fertiliser crisis, spiking prices and threatening food security for millions. While nations like Australia face supply disruptions and higher costs, Russia is positioned to benefit due to its independent export infrastructure and dominant role in fertiliser production. Experts warn that the situation could lead to long-term food shortages and allow Russia to emerge as an indispensable supplier by 2027.
464. https://www.business-standard.com/opinion/editorial/fixing-fertiliser-subsidy-pricing-reform-targeted-farmer-support-needed-126041900725_1.html - India's fertiliser subsidy bill exceeded ₹1.87 trillion by February, surpassing the revised budget estimate before the 2025-26 financial year concluded. The Comptroller and Auditor General reports this reflects structural inefficiencies in agricultural policy, specifically the heavy subsidisation of urea at ₹270 per 45-kg bag despite global price surges. This pricing distortion leads to imbalanced nutrient usage and persistent diversion of fertilisers to non-agricultural uses or smuggling.
465. https://www.dw.com/en/indias-harvest-festivals-under-climate-strain/a-76821351 - Climate change and extreme weather events are damaging crops in India, threatening traditional harvest festivals like Vaisakhi in Punjab and Bohag Bihu in Assam. Recent floods, hailstorms, and unseasonal rains have destroyed millions of acres of wheat and other crops. While government support has been released, experts warn that structural issues like groundwater depletion and limited access to credit hinder farmers' ability to adapt. Recommendations include diversifying crops, improving irrigation, and providing better market infrastructure to ensure food security.
466. https://www.africa-confidential.com/article/id/15973/state-owned-fertiliser-giant-ocp-rethinks-market-strategy-after-gulf-crisis%C2%A0 - Morocco's Office chérifien des phosphates (OCP) has raised US$1.5 billion via its first international hybrid bond to expand production amid global fertiliser market disruptions caused by the Gulf crisis. The state-owned giant aims to capture market share in Europe and other regions facing supply shortfalls due to the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and China's export restrictions. OCP is also lobbying the European Commission to relax cadmium limits in fertiliser regulations to increase its exports to the EU.
467. https://www.dw.com/en/indias-harvest-festivals-under-climate-strain/a-76821351 - Climate change and extreme weather events are damaging crops in India, threatening traditional harvest festivals like Vaisakhi in Punjab and Bohag Bihu in Assam. Recent floods, hailstorms, and unseasonal rains have destroyed millions of acres of wheat and other crops. While government support has been released, experts warn that structural issues like groundwater depletion and limited access to credit hinder farmers' ability to adapt. Recommendations include diversifying crops, improving irrigation, and providing better market infrastructure to ensure food security.
468. https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/world/indian-team-to-reach-washington-on-april-20-for-india-us-trade-talk-1951516 - A team of twelve Indian officers led by Darpan Jain will travel to Washington DC on April 20 for three-day discussions with US authorities regarding the bilateral trade agreement. The talks aim to recalibrate the framework following changes in the US tariff landscape, specifically a 10 per cent tariff imposed by the Trump administration. The delegation includes officials from the customs and external affairs ministries. Discussions may also address two unilateral investigations launched by the US Trade Representative under Section 301 of trade law, which India has rejected.
469. https://misionesonline.net/2026/04/19/mercado-agricola-precios-de-fertilizantes/ - Argentine wheat and barley producers are refusing to accept high fertilizer prices, causing local demand to freeze. According to IF Ingeniería en Fertilizantes, import costs for phosphate fertilizers rose 190-200 dollars per ton since the start of the year, yet local prices remain below replacement costs. While global markets face supply constraints due to geopolitical issues in Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, Argentine buyers are prioritizing domestic production and existing inventory over expensive imports ahead of the 2026/27 planting season.
470. https://www.news18.com/india/india-delegation-to-begin-3-day-trade-pact-talks-in-washington-ws-l-10044385.html - An Indian delegation led by Additional Secretary Darpan Jain arrived in Washington on April 20 for three days of talks with US officials regarding a bilateral trade agreement. Discussions, scheduled from April 20 to 22, aim to recalibrate the framework following a shift in US trade policy where the Supreme Court struck down previous tariffs and a new uniform 10 per cent tariff was introduced. The talks also address two Section 301 investigations launched by the US Trade Representative. India previously proposed tariff reductions on US goods and increased imports, but the new US tariff regime necessitates revisions to the deal before it is signed.
471. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-04-19/record-u-s-drought-sparks-worries-about-fires-water-supply-food-prices - * Record drought levels cover 61% of the US, impacting water supplies and agriculture. * Meteorologists warn of exponential fire risks and potential crop failures due to extreme heat. * Experts fear a poor US crop year could trigger global food price increases. * The drought coincides with a predicted El Niño, which may further reduce yields in other regions like India. * Water reservoirs in the West are not full, complicating long-term supply management.
472. https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art44181451-anna-fedas-akcesja-ukrainy-bedzie-testem-dla-unijnej-polityki-rolnej - Anna Fedas, coordinator of international cooperation at the Stefan Batory Foundation, argues that Ukraine's accession to the European Union will serve as a critical test for the EU's Common Agricultural Policy. The article highlights current tensions between Poland and Ukraine regarding grain imports, which have caused market disruptions and border protests in Poland. Fedas suggests that while structural adjustments and transitional periods are necessary to protect local farmers, ignoring these concerns risks destabilising EU-Ukraine relations and undermining broader geopolitical security objectives.
473. https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-global-weather-climate-sunday-report-week-starts-cold-in-midwest-u-s-followed-by-warm-up-although-canadian-prairies-northwest-great-plains-turn-snowy-2/ - A freeze warning is active for the Midwest and Ohio Valley in the US, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s Fahrenheit. While a warm-up is expected for the Great Plains by mid-week, the Northwest Great Plains and Canadian Prairies face incoming winter weather, including snow and wind, starting Thursday. Concurrently, soil moisture deficits remain severe in the southeast US and Western Nebraska, while Europe experiences expanding dry soil conditions following a shift in precipitation patterns.
474. https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-global-weather-climate-sunday-report-week-starts-cold-in-midwest-u-s-followed-by-warm-up-although-canadian-prairies-northwest-great-plains-turn-snowy-2/ - A freeze warning is active for the Midwest and Ohio Valley in the US, with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s Fahrenheit. While a warm-up is expected for the Great Plains by mid-week, the Northwest Great Plains and Canadian Prairies face incoming winter weather, including snow and wind, starting Thursday. Concurrently, soil moisture deficits remain severe in the southeast US and Western Nebraska, while Europe experiences expanding dry soil conditions following a shift in precipitation patterns.
475. https://www.trend.az/business/4176479.html - Peyman Haeri, Deputy Director of the Agricultural Department of Iran's Zanjan Province, stated that approximately 453000 tons of wheat are expected to be harvested this year. The cultivation area totals 378000 hectares, a 20 percent increase compared to last year despite reduced irrigated farmland. Measures have been taken to prevent pests. Nationally, Iran expects a total harvest of 13.5 million tons, with the government purchasing 9-10 million tons from farmers at 295000 rials per kilogram.
476. https://thefrontierpost.com/afghanistan-rail-trade-rises-39-taliban-ministry-says/ - * The Taliban public works ministry reported a 39% increase in goods transported via Afghanistan's rail network to 6.1 million metric tons in the solar year 1404. * Key trade corridors including Hairatan, Aqina, and Torghundi handled the majority of shipments, which included wheat, flour, and cooking oil. * Despite increased rail volumes, the World Food Program notes that food prices for staples like rice and wheat remain substantially higher than a year ago. * Trade disruptions at crossings with Pakistan have forced greater reliance on northern and western routes, increasing congestion risks at the Islam Qala crossing. * Economists indicate that current logistics gains have not yet translated into lower prices or relief for households facing rising living costs.
477. https://www.eldia.com/nota/2026-4-19-2-30-48-ormuz-otra-vez-cerrado-que-puede-pasar-en-argentina-el-mundo - Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for global hydrocarbon and fertilizer trade. This decision follows diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Washington regarding nuclear concessions. The closure threatens to increase global energy and fertilizer prices, potentially raising interest rates and inflation worldwide. For Argentina, the situation presents a dual impact: increased costs for imported nitrogenous fertilizers and fuel, exacerbated by local production limits at Profertil, versus potential export revenue gains from higher international soybean meal prices. Analysts warn of global economic slowdown and food security risks.
478. https://www.edaily.co.kr/News/Read?newsId=03086486645417760&mediaCodeNo=257&OutLnkChk=Y - The UK Food and Drink Federation warns that the Iran war could drive global food inflation to nearly 10% by late 2026, up from 3.2%. Gulf nations, critical to global food supply chains for fertiliser production and re-export logistics, face disruption from potential attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. World Bank data shows fertiliser prices rose 26.2% last month. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation fears further 15-20% price increases in 2026. Vulnerable nations in Africa and South Asia face severe impacts due to limited fiscal capacity.
479. https://www.edaily.co.kr/News/Read?newsId=03086486645417760&mediaCodeNo=257&OutLnkChk=Y - The UK Food and Drink Federation warns that the Iran war could drive global food inflation to nearly 10% by late 2026, up from 3.2%. Gulf nations, critical to global food supply chains for fertiliser production and re-export logistics, face disruption from potential attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. World Bank data shows fertiliser prices rose 26.2% last month. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation fears further 15-20% price increases in 2026. Vulnerable nations in Africa and South Asia face severe impacts due to limited fiscal capacity.
480. https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-109/News/Agriculture-Minister-Jordan-Adopts-Balanced-Model-Between-Local-Production-and-Imports-to-Bolster-Economic-Security-50688 - Agriculture Minister Saeb Khraisat stated Jordan's food security remains stable despite regional unrest and global supply disruptions. The sector grew 7% in the fourth quarter, contributing 5.4% to GDP. Strategic reserves for wheat and barley cover 10 and 9 months respectively. Government measures include tax exemptions on sea freight and logistics flexibility to mitigate rising costs.
481. https://unb.com.bd/category/Bangladesh/no-s-alam-controversy-affects-industries-ministry-projects-muktadir/184003 - Industries Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir told Parliament that allegations against S Alam Group do not affect projects under his ministry. He clarified the ministry has no role in the group's arrears or employment. Regarding fertiliser production, gas shortages due to the Middle East conflict have limited operations to Ghorashal-Palash Fertilizer Public Limited Company. The government is importing 7 lakh metric tons of urea from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and international markets. Shahjalal Fertiliser Company Limited is expected to resume production on May 1 if gas supply is restored. Efforts are underway to secure raw materials for TSP and DAP factories via G2G agreements with Morocco, Jordan, Oman, China, and Malaysia.
482. https://telanganatoday.com/india-us-resume-trade-talks-in-washington-on-bilateral-deal - Indian negotiators led by Darpan Jain met US officials in Washington from April 20 to 22 to advance a bilateral trade agreement. Discussions focus on revising tariff terms following a US Supreme Court ruling against reciprocal tariffs and the subsequent imposition of a uniform 10 per cent tariff on all countries. The original framework, which included reduced tariffs for India, now requires recalibration due to the changed US policy landscape affecting all trading partners equally.
483. https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-109/News/Agriculture-Minister-Jordan-Adopts-Balanced-Model-Between-Local-Production-and-Imports-to-Bolster-Economic-Security-50688 - Agriculture Minister Saeb Khraisat stated Jordan's food security remains stable despite regional unrest and global supply disruptions. The sector grew 7% in the fourth quarter, contributing 5.4% to GDP. Strategic reserves for wheat and barley cover 10 and 9 months respectively. Government measures include tax exemptions on sea freight and logistics flexibility to mitigate rising costs.
484. https://www.policyedge.in/p/two-wars-one-crisis-rethinking-indias-fertiliser-dependence - In March 2026, India's Kharif sowing season is threatened by a projected 2 million tonne urea shortfall following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz. The closure disrupted global fertiliser and energy trade, exposing India's structural dependence on imported natural gas and concentrated external supply nodes. While domestic urea production stands at 87%, the country relies on imported feedstock and faces similar risks with potash and phosphate fertilisers. The crisis highlights the need to shift from crisis management to structural redesign of input systems.
485. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/apr/19/ej-antoni-and-stephen-moore-the-coming-fertilizer-/ - EJ Antoni and Stephen Moore argue that countervailing duties on phosphorus-heavy fertilizers from Morocco and Russia, imposed under the Biden administration, are exacerbating a global fertilizer crisis driven by the war with Iran. They contend that these tariffs have reduced supply, increased costs for American farmers, and will lead to higher food prices. The authors call for the Trump administration to temporarily suspend these duties to ensure adequate fertilizer access during the critical spring planting season, citing national security and economic stability concerns.
486. https://english.punjabkesari.com/business/global-food-crisis-risks-vs-sufficient-grain-supplies/ - Wandile Sihlobo states that global grain and oilseed supplies remain ample due to favorable harvests, but the 2026-27 season faces risks from El Niño, rising fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, and low commodity prices. He advises against export restrictions by major producers to prevent a crisis, noting that immediate household concerns stem from higher fuel costs impacting the supply chain rather than shortages. The future outlook depends on upcoming planting seasons in both hemispheres.
487. https://english.punjabkesari.com/business/global-food-crisis-risks-vs-sufficient-grain-supplies/ - Wandile Sihlobo states that global grain and oilseed supplies remain ample due to favorable harvests, but the 2026-27 season faces risks from El Niño, rising fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, and low commodity prices. He advises against export restrictions by major producers to prevent a crisis, noting that immediate household concerns stem from higher fuel costs impacting the supply chain rather than shortages. The future outlook depends on upcoming planting seasons in both hemispheres.
488. https://english.punjabkesari.com/business/global-food-crisis-risks-vs-sufficient-grain-supplies/ - Wandile Sihlobo states that global grain and oilseed supplies remain ample due to favorable harvests, but the 2026-27 season faces risks from El Niño, rising fertilizer and fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict, and low commodity prices. He advises against export restrictions by major producers to prevent a crisis, noting that immediate household concerns stem from higher fuel costs impacting the supply chain rather than shortages. The future outlook depends on upcoming planting seasons in both hemispheres.
489. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/26/04/51903011/us-extends-waiver-russian-oil-sanctions-despite-scott-bessent-denial - The US Treasury Department announced an extension of the suspension of sanctions on Russian oil shipments for 30 days, effective immediately. This decision aims to alleviate potential oil shortages resulting from the Iran war, contradicting earlier statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who had denied renewing the license. The move allows shipments loaded before April 17 to be delivered through May 16. Economists warn this could bolster Moscow's war financing and disrupt global agricultural supply chains due to Russia's dominance in fertilizer exports.
490. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/26/04/51903011/us-extends-waiver-russian-oil-sanctions-despite-scott-bessent-denial - The US Treasury Department announced an extension of the suspension of sanctions on Russian oil shipments for 30 days, effective immediately. This decision aims to alleviate potential oil shortages resulting from the Iran war, contradicting earlier statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who had denied renewing the license. The move allows shipments loaded before April 17 to be delivered through May 16. Economists warn this could bolster Moscow's war financing and disrupt global agricultural supply chains due to Russia's dominance in fertilizer exports.
491. https://www.herefordtimes.com/news/26009842.war-iran-affecting-herefordshire-farmers/ - Herefordshire farmers face significant cost pressures due to rising red diesel prices and fertiliser transport disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East. While red diesel prices have surged by approximately 60%, with some farmers paying 135p per litre, fertiliser supplies are threatened as a third of global shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. NFU representative Greg Chilman states that while planting is proceeding, farmers are making difficult decisions regarding crop selection and volumes to manage inflationary pressures. The NFU is lobbying the government to ensure a stable homegrown food sector.
492. https://www.greaterkashmir.com/business/govt-says-el-nino-threat-to-agri-sector-manageable-due-to-better-irrigation-reserves-11741964 - The Indian government stated that potential damage to the agriculture sector from an El Nino weather pattern is expected to be limited. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan cited improved irrigation infrastructure, high reservoir levels at 127 per cent of normal, and secured seed stocks as key factors. The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall. Officials contrasted current preparedness with previous episodes, noting expanded micro-irrigation and climate-resilient seeds have reduced vulnerability. Contingency plans are being activated at the district level.
493. https://www.viva.co.id/bisnis/1892964-setelah-bbm-kini-harga-buah-dan-sayur-terancam-naik-imbas-perang-iran-vs-as-israel - The conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has driven global oil prices up over 40% since February 2026, raising concerns about food and grocery prices. Approximately one-third of the world's fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a route disrupted by the conflict. Although the strait reopened on 17 April 2026, fears of fertilizer shortages persist. A survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found 70% of farmers cannot afford necessary fertilizers due to rising costs of nitrogen-based production and distribution. Higher natural gas prices and oil transport costs are increasing agricultural operational expenses.
494. https://www.greaterkashmir.com/business/govt-says-el-nino-threat-to-agri-sector-manageable-due-to-better-irrigation-reserves-11741964 - The Indian government stated that potential damage to the agriculture sector from an El Nino weather pattern is expected to be limited. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan cited improved irrigation infrastructure, high reservoir levels at 127 per cent of normal, and secured seed stocks as key factors. The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall. Officials contrasted current preparedness with previous episodes, noting expanded micro-irrigation and climate-resilient seeds have reduced vulnerability. Contingency plans are being activated at the district level.
495. https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/04/19/amid-political-noise-nigerias-breadbasket-crumbles/ - Violence and insecurity across Nigeria's food belt, including Plateau, Benue, and Niger states, have emptied farms and displaced millions, driving acute food insecurity. In 2025, terrorist incidents rose to 171, with civilians accounting for most victims. Global pressures, including the Middle East crisis, have increased fuel and fertilizer costs, further straining agricultural businesses like Olam Nigeria and Flour Mills of Nigeria. Projections suggest up to 35 million Nigerians could face food insecurity in 2026 as land lies fallow due to safety concerns.
496. https://www.vietatoparlare.it/la-bomba-ad-rologeria-del-cibo-come-la-crisi-dei-fertilizzanti-sta-preparando-uno-shock-alimentare-globale-nel-2027/ - Reduced nitrogen fertiliser application in spring 2026 is expected to cause reduced harvests in autumn 2026. Due to a 6-12 month lag in the agricultural supply chain, these supply constraints will result in higher retail food prices globally between late 2026 and mid-2027. The mechanism transfers energy shocks to grain prices, creating a predictable food inflation scenario.
497. https://www.vietatoparlare.it/la-bomba-ad-rologeria-del-cibo-come-la-crisi-dei-fertilizzanti-sta-preparando-uno-shock-alimentare-globale-nel-2027/ - Reduced nitrogen fertiliser application in spring 2026 is expected to cause reduced harvests in autumn 2026. Due to a 6-12 month lag in the agricultural supply chain, these supply constraints will result in higher retail food prices globally between late 2026 and mid-2027. The mechanism transfers energy shocks to grain prices, creating a predictable food inflation scenario.
498. https://www.chennairains.com/persisting-dry-weather-aggravates-summer-peninsular-india/ - Peninsular India faces aggravated summer conditions due to persisting dry weather, with the mango shower season halted. Kerala's seasonal rainfall deficit stands at -36% since 1st March. Sub-seasonal outlooks suggest dry conditions may continue for another week, potentially delaying tropical wave transit. The IMD's monsoon forecast indicates a poor pre-monsoon phase, exacerbating heat stress and soil moisture stress. Water storage in the Cauvery and Mettur basins has significantly declined compared to last year, threatening Kuruvai cultivation. Interior areas are expected to experience uncomfortably hot days, with temperatures reaching 39-40°C in some regions.
499. https://vanguardia.com.mx/noticias/afronta-eu-sequia-record-y-se-avivan-temores-por-incendios-y-precios-de-alimentos-AC20112156 - The United States is experiencing a record-breaking drought, with 61% of the contiguous states facing moderate to exceptional dryness, the highest levels since the US Drought Monitor began in 2000. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the Palmer Drought Severity Index reached its highest level for March since 1895. Meteorologists warn that this early spring severity, driven by record heat and low snowpack, significantly increases the risk of wildfires and threatens agricultural production. Experts from the University of Arizona and Yale Climate Connections express concern that poor crop yields could lead to global food price increases, particularly as the country enters the spring planting season.
500. https://vanguardia.com.mx/noticias/afronta-eu-sequia-record-y-se-avivan-temores-por-incendios-y-precios-de-alimentos-AC20112156 - The United States is experiencing a record-breaking drought, with 61% of the contiguous states facing moderate to exceptional dryness, the highest levels since the US Drought Monitor began in 2000. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the Palmer Drought Severity Index reached its highest level for March since 1895. Meteorologists warn that this early spring severity, driven by record heat and low snowpack, significantly increases the risk of wildfires and threatens agricultural production. Experts from the University of Arizona and Yale Climate Connections express concern that poor crop yields could lead to global food price increases, particularly as the country enters the spring planting season.