Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-25T06:44:28Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-01 |
Near-term uranium price bias is upward as the corpus emphasises reactor build momentum, SMR/microreactor procurement signals, and fuel-cycle policy initiatives that reinforce perceived future uranium demand/contracting. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-02 |
Supply tightness framing remains a supportive background for uranium pricing (deficit/term contracting narrative persists), with geopolitical supply-risk stories adding an upside-risk premium and volatility. |
61 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| uranium |
B-UR-03 |
Reversal risk is non-trivial because many high-heat items skew toward lower-authority distribution, and several geopolitics/policy narratives can swing quickly (headline-driven whipsaw risk). |
57 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-25T06:44:28Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T06:44:28Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price bias is upward as the corpus emphasises reactor build momentum, SMR/microreactor procurement signals, and fuel-cycle policy initiatives that reinforce perceived future uranium demand/contracting.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"uranium_supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"policy/legislative friction signals (low-mass, often single-source)",
"reputational/regulatory critique narratives (low breadth)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-02",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply tightness framing remains a supportive background for uranium pricing (deficit/term contracting narrative persists), with geopolitical supply-risk stories adding an upside-risk premium and volatility.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"domestic production ramp narratives that could soften medium-term tightness (timing uncertain)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-03",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial because many high-heat items skew toward lower-authority distribution, and several geopolitics/policy narratives can swing quickly (headline-driven whipsaw risk).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"broad multi-source reinforcement of nuclear buildout themes with some Tier-A participation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-01",
"B-UR-02",
"B-UR-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 5,
"B": 21,
"C": 12,
"D": 452,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_proxy_samples": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_proxy_samples": 16,
"context_24_72h_proxy_samples": 8,
"stale_gt_72h_proxy_samples": 0,
"note": "Proxy mix derived from per-signal newest/oldest and provided source_ref_sample timestamps; overlaps across trends are not de-duplicated."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence in admitted themes is Tier-D; this elevates narrative-whipsaw fragility without constituting true counter-evidence."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_tail_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical nuclear/security narratives can inject volatility and fast sentiment flips (risk premium can expand/contract quickly)."
},
{
"flag": "price_link_indirectness",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Many signals are demand/policy proxies rather than direct uranium price prints; confidence is therefore capped modestly under balanced policy."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If next-cycle evidence remains net-positive with low contradiction and fresh confirmation persists across multiple independent domains (policy + contracting + reactor demand)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If new geopolitics/sanctions or incident-style headlines cluster within a 2h window (expect fast swings / gap risk)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence (policy reversal, demand shock, or credible supply-surplus thesis) appears from 2+ independent sources within <=2h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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},
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"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed against assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior).",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided in 5B payload; counterevidence scoring reflects low-mass opposing/critical narratives and general fragility drivers rather than direct contradictory records.",
"Timeseries is a conservative proxy reconstruction using available per-signal timestamps/temporal profiles; it should be treated as shape/inflection guidance rather than precise per-hour evidence counts."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}