Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 06:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Near-term macro impulse (higher real-rate/rate-expectations framing) is exerting net downside pressure on silver futures. 60 down stable 6h false 58
silver B-SI-002 Supportive offsets (USD-weakness framing and inflation-risk/safe-haven narrative spillover) are present but not dominant, increasing reversal sensitivity if rates narrative softens. 40 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-SILVER-20260425T060000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Near-term macro impulse (higher real-rate/rate-expectations framing) is exerting net downside pressure on silver futures.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "monetary_policy", "usd_strength" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Supportive offsets (USD-weakness framing and inflation-risk/safe-haven narrative spillover) are present but not dominant, increasing reversal sensitivity if rates narrative softens.", "probability_pct": 40, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "investment_flows", "inflation_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bearish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bearish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 3, "B": 5, "C": 2, "D": 230, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_count": 2, "fresh_6_24h_count": 3, "stale_24_72h_count": 0, "stale_gt_72h_count": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "low_authority_overhang", "severity": "medium", "market": "silver", "rationale": "Directional mass is broad but dominated by lower-tier sources; conviction held mainly by breadth/recency rather than Tier-A confirmation." }, { "flag": "macro_crosscurrents", "severity": "medium", "market": "silver", "rationale": "Rates/real-yield pressure is opposed by USD-weakness and inflation-risk narratives, elevating reversal sensitivity." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "silver", "rationale": "Recent sharp bearish impulse has already partially mean-reverted in the last few hours (weakening momentum)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action_label": "watch_short_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) reinforcing evidence for higher real yields / tighter policy continues without matching bullish counterevidence." }, { "market": "silver", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh USD-weakness or policy-softening signals emerge and contradiction rises (or directional score moves back above -20)." }, { "market": "silver", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If mixed evidence persists (contradiction ratio stays elevated in consecutive buckets) indicating choppy range conditions." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [ "silver" ], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 29, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 29, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -7, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": -7, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -3, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": -3, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -1, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": -1, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -1, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": -1, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -1, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": -1, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 29, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -57, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 100, "net_sentiment_score": -57, "velocity_score": -62, "acceleration_score": -59, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 83, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -37, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 74, "net_sentiment_score": -37, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 82, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -24, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": -24, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bearish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -57, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 62, "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 5, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=silver.", "Prior state not provided; state_change set as new_bearish (first-observation default).", "Timeseries is impulse+decay approximated from available signal timestamps within the admitted corpus (no per-record bucket re-scan available in this payload)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }