Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures (LNG geopolitics & supply-risk)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-25 22:40 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG-B1 | Escalating Middle East shipping/geopolitical risk and downward revisions to LNG supply growth outlook are increasing tail-risk of tighter global LNG availability, biasing natural gas prices upward over the next 6–24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | NG-B2 | Supply resilience narratives (e.g., alternative LNG flows / exports offsetting specific losses) are limiting upside follow-through, keeping the market vulnerable to fast fade if escalation stalls. | 48 | down | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | NG-B3 | Near-term LNG demand softness signals in Asia (e.g., reduced imports) add downside pressure and raise two-sided risk in natural gas pricing. | 44 | down | fading | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T224000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T22:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures (LNG geopolitics & supply-risk)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG-B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Escalating Middle East shipping/geopolitical risk and downward revisions to LNG supply growth outlook are increasing tail-risk of tighter global LNG availability, biasing natural gas prices upward over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / maritime security risk (Hormuz / regional conflict headlines)",
"Narratives indicating LNG supply-growth downgrade / disruption risk",
"Risk-premium transmission into LNG-linked gas balances"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B2",
"NG-B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Supply resilience narratives (e.g., alternative LNG flows / exports offsetting specific losses) are limiting upside follow-through, keeping the market vulnerable to fast fade if escalation stalls.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Substitution / rerouting of LNG supply",
"Incremental US LNG flow flexibility narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term LNG demand softness signals in Asia (e.g., reduced imports) add downside pressure and raise two-sided risk in natural gas pricing.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Asia LNG demand curtailment headlines",
"Demand-destruction / intake reduction narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2",
"NG-B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 34,
"B": 3,
"C": 1,
"D": 412,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 5,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 3,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 2,
"stale_over_72h_signals": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-01",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Direction is being driven mainly by fast-moving geopolitics/LNG shipping-risk narratives (vs. stable weather/storage fundamentals), increasing fade/reversal susceptibility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-02",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "cross_market_transmission_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted drivers are global LNG/geopolitical; translation to Henry Hub can be nonlinear and time-lagged."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-03",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "counterevidence_present",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Credible offsetting signals exist (supply substitution/offset narratives; demand softness), keeping reversal risk elevated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/shipping disruption headlines persist or broaden AND no fresh demand-destruction headline cluster dominates the last 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid de-escalation / reopening / diplomatic resolution headline emerges OR confirmed disruption events occur (either direction can gap)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A 2h cluster of supply-resilience / demand-weakness signals appears with rising contradiction ratio versus the prior 6h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:40:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:40:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -1,
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},
{
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"velocity_score": 3,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:40:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:40:00Z",
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:40:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:40:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 20,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:40:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
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"acceleration_score": -3,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:40:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:40:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:40:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:40:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:40:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas only.",
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior table). state_change set to 'unchanged' as fallback.",
"Directional interpretation uses LNG/geopolitics-to-gas linkage; limited direct weather/storage flow signals present in admitted set."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}