Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures (LNG geopolitics & supply-risk)
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 22:40 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas NG-B1 Escalating Middle East shipping/geopolitical risk and downward revisions to LNG supply growth outlook are increasing tail-risk of tighter global LNG availability, biasing natural gas prices upward over the next 6–24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 66
natural_gas NG-B2 Supply resilience narratives (e.g., alternative LNG flows / exports offsetting specific losses) are limiting upside follow-through, keeping the market vulnerable to fast fade if escalation stalls. 48 down stable 24h false 66
natural_gas NG-B3 Near-term LNG demand softness signals in Asia (e.g., reduced imports) add downside pressure and raise two-sided risk in natural gas pricing. 44 down fading 24h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T224000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T22:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures (LNG geopolitics & supply-risk)",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Escalating Middle East shipping/geopolitical risk and downward revisions to LNG supply growth outlook are increasing tail-risk of tighter global LNG availability, biasing natural gas prices upward over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical escalation / maritime security risk (Hormuz / regional conflict headlines)",
 "Narratives indicating LNG supply-growth downgrade / disruption risk",
 "Risk-premium transmission into LNG-linked gas balances"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B2",
 "NG-B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Supply resilience narratives (e.g., alternative LNG flows / exports offsetting specific losses) are limiting upside follow-through, keeping the market vulnerable to fast fade if escalation stalls.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Substitution / rerouting of LNG supply",
 "Incremental US LNG flow flexibility narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B3",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term LNG demand softness signals in Asia (e.g., reduced imports) add downside pressure and raise two-sided risk in natural gas pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Asia LNG demand curtailment headlines",
 "Demand-destruction / intake reduction narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "NG-B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "NG-B1",
 "NG-B2",
 "NG-B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 34,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 412,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 3,
 "stale_24_72h_signals": 2,
 "stale_over_72h_signals": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-01",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Direction is being driven mainly by fast-moving geopolitics/LNG shipping-risk narratives (vs. stable weather/storage fundamentals), increasing fade/reversal susceptibility."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-02",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "cross_market_transmission_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Several admitted drivers are global LNG/geopolitical; translation to Henry Hub can be nonlinear and time-lagged."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-03",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "counterevidence_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Credible offsetting signals exist (supply substitution/offset narratives; demand softness), keeping reversal risk elevated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/shipping disruption headlines persist or broaden AND no fresh demand-destruction headline cluster dominates the last 2\u20136h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any rapid de-escalation / reopening / diplomatic resolution headline emerges OR confirmed disruption events occur (either direction can gap)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A 2h cluster of supply-resilience / demand-weakness signals appears with rising contradiction ratio versus the prior 6h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:40:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:40:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:40:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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 {
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 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:40:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:40:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas only.",
 "Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior table). state_change set to 'unchanged' as fallback.",
 "Directional interpretation uses LNG/geopolitics-to-gas linkage; limited direct weather/storage flow signals present in admitted set."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}