Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term LNG supply-disruption risk and rerouting/competition narratives are increasing perceived tightness, supporting higher natural gas futures over the next 6–24 hours. 66 up accelerating 6h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Local/utility messaging around storage adequacy can partially offset broader tightness narratives, limiting upside continuation risk over the next 24 hours. 38 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T120000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term LNG supply-disruption risk and rerouting/competition narratives are increasing perceived tightness, supporting higher natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Local/utility messaging around storage adequacy can partially offset broader tightness narratives, limiting upside continuation risk over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "storage_levels",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 11,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 10,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines; treat continuation confidence as fragile-to-medium despite bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "data_concentration_low_authority_tail",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Despite multiple Tier-A anchors, several clusters show high low-tier share in amplification; monitor for echo-driven overreaction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "single_source_counter_signal",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Some counterpoints (e.g., local storage adequacy messaging) appear singleton/low-diversity; not strong enough to neutralise the main bullish mass."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent updates reinforce LNG disruption / storage shortfall narratives within the next 6\u201312 hours without fresh counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (new official/market-structural updates) causing rapid narrative swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh items appear indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or materially improved storage/supply adequacy, pushing contradiction higher."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence mass rises and net directional score compresses into the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 37,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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 },
 {
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to natural_gas; scope constrained to single_market.",
 "Direction derived primarily from fresh LNG/geopolitics + storage-shortfall narratives (bullish for NG pricing), with limited counterevidence (mostly singleton/local adequacy messaging).",
 "No prior trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior state."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}