Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-25T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term LNG supply-disruption risk and rerouting/competition narratives are increasing perceived tightness, supporting higher natural gas futures over the next 6–24 hours. | 66 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Local/utility messaging around storage adequacy can partially offset broader tightness narratives, limiting upside continuation risk over the next 24 hours. | 38 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T120000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term LNG supply-disruption risk and rerouting/competition narratives are increasing perceived tightness, supporting higher natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Local/utility messaging around storage adequacy can partially offset broader tightness narratives, limiting upside continuation risk over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage_levels",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 11,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 10,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines; treat continuation confidence as fragile-to-medium despite bullish bias."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "data_concentration_low_authority_tail",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Despite multiple Tier-A anchors, several clusters show high low-tier share in amplification; monitor for echo-driven overreaction."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"type": "single_source_counter_signal",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some counterpoints (e.g., local storage adequacy messaging) appear singleton/low-diversity; not strong enough to neutralise the main bullish mass."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent updates reinforce LNG disruption / storage shortfall narratives within the next 6\u201312 hours without fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (new official/market-structural updates) causing rapid narrative swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh items appear indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or materially improved storage/supply adequacy, pushing contradiction higher."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory evidence mass rises and net directional score compresses into the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 3,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
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"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
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"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to natural_gas; scope constrained to single_market.",
"Direction derived primarily from fresh LNG/geopolitics + storage-shortfall narratives (bullish for NG pricing), with limited counterevidence (mostly singleton/local adequacy messaging).",
"No prior trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior state."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}