- subject_area: Lithium
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX
- generated_at: 2026-04-25T23:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Lithium futures are biased higher over the next 24h as lithium hydroxide tightness/premium signals persist and prompt supply-chain investment headlines reinforce demand expectations. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Near-term (6h) lithium futures skew upward but remain fragile because most corroboration is thematic (EV/battery complex) rather than direct spot/futures price-formation evidence. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
52 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260425T230500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T23:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures are biased higher over the next 24h as lithium hydroxide tightness/premium signals persist and prompt supply-chain investment headlines reinforce demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium hydroxide premium/tightness narrative (direct lithium signal)",
"Battery supply-chain investment headlines and OEM expansion narratives (demand-side reinforcement)",
"Cross-region coverage breadth (multiple independent domains, low single-source concentration on the main trend)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/recycling narratives that could raise secondary supply (weak/low-density in current corpus)",
"Generalised EV-demand fragility signals (indirect; not a direct lithium price bearish catalyst)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures skew upward but remain fragile because most corroboration is thematic (EV/battery complex) rather than direct spot/futures price-formation evidence.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh, multi-source coverage in the last 6\u201324h supporting the lithium hydroxide premium narrative",
"No material fresh opposing lithium-specific thesis observed in admitted signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Low-authority-heavy corpus mix increases whipsaw risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 9,
"C": 5,
"D": 161,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.35,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.45,
"stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.2,
"stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
},
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 25,
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 36
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"type": "echo_or_low_authority_mix",
"details": "Directional mass is broad but authority-tier mix is skewed toward lower tiers; raises narrative-whipsaw/overreaction risk without necessarily implying counter-direction."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-INDIRECT_DRIVER_OVERHANG",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"type": "indirect_driver_overhang",
"details": "A sizeable share of support comes from EV/OEM thematic expansion rather than direct lithium market structure signals (inventories, contract benchmarks, producer guidance)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-REVERSAL_SENSITIVITY",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"type": "reversal_sensitivity",
"details": "Reversal risk is not driven by current counterevidence mass; it is driven by fragility/indirectness (a single strong contrary lithium-specific print could reprice sentiment quickly)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed stays >= +30 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.25 across the next 2\u20134 buckets (2\u20134h)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed drops below +20 with a concurrent contradiction_ratio increase >= 0.10 within a 3h window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh_evidence_count spikes while authority confirmation does not increase (e.g., new low-tier burst), increasing whipsaw risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: lithium.",
"Directional state derived primarily from lithium-specific (hydroxide premium/tightness) plus fresh EV/battery supply-chain reinforcement; minimal lithium-specific opposing evidence detected.",
"Medium reversal risk reflects fragility/indirectness rather than observed counterevidence acceleration.",
"Prior market state unavailable; state_change emitted as new_bullish with unknown_prior baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}