• subject_area: Lithium
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25T23:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Lithium futures are biased higher over the next 24h as lithium hydroxide tightness/premium signals persist and prompt supply-chain investment headlines reinforce demand expectations. 64 up accelerating 24h false 52
lithium B-LI-002 Near-term (6h) lithium futures skew upward but remain fragile because most corroboration is thematic (EV/battery complex) rather than direct spot/futures price-formation evidence. 58 up stable 6h false 52
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260425T230500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T23:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures are biased higher over the next 24h as lithium hydroxide tightness/premium signals persist and prompt supply-chain investment headlines reinforce demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium hydroxide premium/tightness narrative (direct lithium signal)",
 "Battery supply-chain investment headlines and OEM expansion narratives (demand-side reinforcement)",
 "Cross-region coverage breadth (multiple independent domains, low single-source concentration on the main trend)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/recycling narratives that could raise secondary supply (weak/low-density in current corpus)",
 "Generalised EV-demand fragility signals (indirect; not a direct lithium price bearish catalyst)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures skew upward but remain fragile because most corroboration is thematic (EV/battery complex) rather than direct spot/futures price-formation evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh, multi-source coverage in the last 6\u201324h supporting the lithium hydroxide premium narrative",
 "No material fresh opposing lithium-specific thesis observed in admitted signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Low-authority-heavy corpus mix increases whipsaw risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 4,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 161,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.35,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.45,
 "stale_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.2,
 "stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 },
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 25,
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 36
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "echo_or_low_authority_mix",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad but authority-tier mix is skewed toward lower tiers; raises narrative-whipsaw/overreaction risk without necessarily implying counter-direction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-INDIRECT_DRIVER_OVERHANG",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "indirect_driver_overhang",
 "details": "A sizeable share of support comes from EV/OEM thematic expansion rather than direct lithium market structure signals (inventories, contract benchmarks, producer guidance)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-REVERSAL_SENSITIVITY",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "reversal_sensitivity",
 "details": "Reversal risk is not driven by current counterevidence mass; it is driven by fragility/indirectness (a single strong contrary lithium-specific print could reprice sentiment quickly)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed stays >= +30 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.25 across the next 2\u20134 buckets (2\u20134h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed drops below +20 with a concurrent contradiction_ratio increase >= 0.10 within a 3h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh_evidence_count spikes while authority confirmation does not increase (e.g., new low-tier burst), increasing whipsaw risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: lithium.",
 "Directional state derived primarily from lithium-specific (hydroxide premium/tightness) plus fresh EV/battery supply-chain reinforcement; minimal lithium-specific opposing evidence detected.",
 "Medium reversal risk reflects fragility/indirectness rather than observed counterevidence acceleration.",
 "Prior market state unavailable; state_change emitted as new_bullish with unknown_prior baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}