Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_crosscurrents
- generated_at: 2026-04-25T21:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Copper futures have a near-term upward bias as supply-risk narratives and infrastructure/electrification demand themes dominate the latest evidence mix. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Even if copper remains net-positive, short-horizon pullback/range risk is elevated because some supply-expansion headlines and demand-mix uncertainty coexist with the bullish thesis. |
48 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_copper_2026-04-25T21:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T21:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have a near-term upward bias as supply-risk narratives and infrastructure/electrification demand themes dominate the latest evidence mix.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply constraint / disruption risk signals (mining regulation, localisation deadlines, acid shortage risk)",
"Infrastructure and grid investment / electrification demand narrative (charging + grid buildout)",
"Technical/market-structure chatter indicating bullish continuation patterns"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Mine capacity expansion / supply growth narratives (e.g., capacity expansions)",
"Mixed demand/destination signals (export/flow softening risk proxies)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Even if copper remains net-positive, short-horizon pullback/range risk is elevated because some supply-expansion headlines and demand-mix uncertainty coexist with the bullish thesis.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Supply expansion/capacity-addition mentions countering the deficit narrative",
"Cross-venue/flow signals that can create intraday whipsaws"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh continuation-style bullish technical narrative",
"Broad repeated supply-risk framing (multi-source) limiting downside follow-through"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 15,
"B": 5,
"C": 3,
"D": 477,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share": 0.26,
"fresh_6_24h_share": 0.38,
"fresh_24_72h_share": 0.24,
"stale_gt72h_share": 0.12
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_crosscurrents",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Bullish demand/supply-risk thesis is present, but supply-expansion and demand-mix uncertainty keep reversal risk non-trivial."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of amplification appears to come from lower-tier sources; treat high-conviction readings as more fragile than the mass alone suggests."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"description": "No prior state memory provided to compute a deterministic state transition; state_change left as unchanged (unknown baseline)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance (0\u201324h) and no contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh bearish items (<=2h) appear OR contradiction ratio rises materially while directional score drops toward neutral."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains bullish but intraday bucket-to-bucket directional score swings widen (velocity/acceleration volatility)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope locked to target_market_code=copper (explicit).",
"No explicit contradictions set provided; contradiction_ratio values are conservative estimates based on mixed-theme coexistence rather than explicit opposing-record links.",
"Prior market state memory not provided; state_change computed with unknown baseline (left as unchanged + risk flag).",
"Timeseries buckets are derived from admitted signal recency/heat proxies available in-trend (not full per-record timestamp distribution, which is truncated upstream)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}