Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_crosscurrents
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25T21:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Copper futures have a near-term upward bias as supply-risk narratives and infrastructure/electrification demand themes dominate the latest evidence mix. 62 up accelerating 24h false 49
copper B-copper-02 Even if copper remains net-positive, short-horizon pullback/range risk is elevated because some supply-expansion headlines and demand-mix uncertainty coexist with the bullish thesis. 48 mixed stable 6h false 49

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_2026-04-25T21:30:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T21:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have a near-term upward bias as supply-risk narratives and infrastructure/electrification demand themes dominate the latest evidence mix.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply constraint / disruption risk signals (mining regulation, localisation deadlines, acid shortage risk)",
 "Infrastructure and grid investment / electrification demand narrative (charging + grid buildout)",
 "Technical/market-structure chatter indicating bullish continuation patterns"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Mine capacity expansion / supply growth narratives (e.g., capacity expansions)",
 "Mixed demand/destination signals (export/flow softening risk proxies)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Even if copper remains net-positive, short-horizon pullback/range risk is elevated because some supply-expansion headlines and demand-mix uncertainty coexist with the bullish thesis.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply expansion/capacity-addition mentions countering the deficit narrative",
 "Cross-venue/flow signals that can create intraday whipsaws"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh continuation-style bullish technical narrative",
 "Broad repeated supply-risk framing (multi-source) limiting downside follow-through"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 15,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 477,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share": 0.26,
 "fresh_6_24h_share": 0.38,
 "fresh_24_72h_share": 0.24,
 "stale_gt72h_share": 0.12
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_crosscurrents",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Bullish demand/supply-risk thesis is present, but supply-expansion and demand-mix uncertainty keep reversal risk non-trivial."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of amplification appears to come from lower-tier sources; treat high-conviction readings as more fragile than the mass alone suggests."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "No prior state memory provided to compute a deterministic state transition; state_change left as unchanged (unknown baseline)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with fresh evidence dominance (0\u201324h) and no contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh bearish items (<=2h) appear OR contradiction ratio rises materially while directional score drops toward neutral."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains bullish but intraday bucket-to-bucket directional score swings widen (velocity/acceleration volatility)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope locked to target_market_code=copper (explicit).",
 "No explicit contradictions set provided; contradiction_ratio values are conservative estimates based on mixed-theme coexistence rather than explicit opposing-record links.",
 "Prior market state memory not provided; state_change computed with unknown baseline (left as unchanged + risk flag).",
 "Timeseries buckets are derived from admitted signal recency/heat proxies available in-trend (not full per-record timestamp distribution, which is truncated upstream)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}