- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_supply_narrative
- generated_at: 2026-04-25T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-01 |
Near-term copper futures bias is upward as supply-disruption risk and electrification/grid-capex narratives dominate the most recent evidence window. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
| copper |
B-copper-02 |
Over the next 24 hours, upside is vulnerable to counter-narratives about new supply (capacity expansions / discoveries) creating a mean-reversion or pullback risk even if the dominant bias remains positive. |
44 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T060000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-01",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures bias is upward as supply-disruption risk and electrification/grid-capex narratives dominate the most recent evidence window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Supply disruption / constraint risk (regional supply-chain constraints; mine/processing bottlenecks)",
"Grid / charging / electrification investment narratives supporting demand expectations",
"Short-term technical/positioning narrative (bull-flag style framing in the corpus)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Incremental supply-addition narratives (capacity expansion; reserve discovery) which can cap upside",
"Mixed macro/demand signalling in parts of the corpus"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-02",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, upside is vulnerable to counter-narratives about new supply (capacity expansions / discoveries) creating a mean-reversion or pullback risk even if the dominant bias remains positive.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply expansion / discovery narratives (bearish supply shock framing)",
"Counter-positioning against supply-risk headlines (re-pricing of risk premium)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, repeated supply-risk headlines and demand-supportive policy/infrastructure narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-01",
"B-copper-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 14,
"B": 6,
"C": 5,
"D": 436,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 3,
"stale_24_72h": 1,
"stale_gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_supply_narrative",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Bullish supply-risk/demand-supportive signals are present alongside credible supply-addition/discovery counter-signals."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but source-tier mix is heavily weighted to lower tiers; treat conviction as more headline/flow-sensitive."
},
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Many admitted signals are narrative/announcement driven (policy, supply chain, infrastructure), increasing whipsaw risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-risk and demand-support headlines continue to arrive without matching fresh supply-addition confirmations, maintain bullish watch bias over the next 6h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence emerges from 2+ independent sources supporting a supply-increase or demand-shock narrative, treat as potential reversal setup."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory headlines cluster inside a single session (supply risk vs supply growth), expect higher intraday variance even if net bias stays bullish."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signal freshness drops (no meaningful new evidence) and contradiction rises, de-emphasise directional bias until refreshed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 71,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 77,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: copper (explicit).",
"Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context.",
"Counterevidence present (supply expansion/discovery narratives) but not concentrated enough in the last <=2h window to trigger kill-switch.",
"Authority mix is skewed to lower tiers; conviction is driven primarily by breadth/recency-weighted mass under mass_consensus."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}