• subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_supply_narrative
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Near-term copper futures bias is upward as supply-disruption risk and electrification/grid-capex narratives dominate the most recent evidence window. 62 up accelerating 6h false 46
copper B-copper-02 Over the next 24 hours, upside is vulnerable to counter-narratives about new supply (capacity expansions / discoveries) creating a mean-reversion or pullback risk even if the dominant bias remains positive. 44 down stable 24h false 46
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T060000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-01",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias is upward as supply-disruption risk and electrification/grid-capex narratives dominate the most recent evidence window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply disruption / constraint risk (regional supply-chain constraints; mine/processing bottlenecks)",
 "Grid / charging / electrification investment narratives supporting demand expectations",
 "Short-term technical/positioning narrative (bull-flag style framing in the corpus)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Incremental supply-addition narratives (capacity expansion; reserve discovery) which can cap upside",
 "Mixed macro/demand signalling in parts of the corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-02",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, upside is vulnerable to counter-narratives about new supply (capacity expansions / discoveries) creating a mean-reversion or pullback risk even if the dominant bias remains positive.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply expansion / discovery narratives (bearish supply shock framing)",
 "Counter-positioning against supply-risk headlines (re-pricing of risk premium)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, repeated supply-risk headlines and demand-supportive policy/infrastructure narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-01",
 "B-copper-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 14,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 436,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h": 3,
 "stale_24_72h": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_supply_narrative",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Bullish supply-risk/demand-supportive signals are present alongside credible supply-addition/discovery counter-signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but source-tier mix is heavily weighted to lower tiers; treat conviction as more headline/flow-sensitive."
 },
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Many admitted signals are narrative/announcement driven (policy, supply chain, infrastructure), increasing whipsaw risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-risk and demand-support headlines continue to arrive without matching fresh supply-addition confirmations, maintain bullish watch bias over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence emerges from 2+ independent sources supporting a supply-increase or demand-shock narrative, treat as potential reversal setup."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory headlines cluster inside a single session (supply risk vs supply growth), expect higher intraday variance even if net bias stays bullish."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If signal freshness drops (no meaningful new evidence) and contradiction rises, de-emphasise directional bias until refreshed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 71,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 77,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 77,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market: copper (explicit).",
 "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context.",
 "Counterevidence present (supply expansion/discovery narratives) but not concentrated enough in the last <=2h window to trigger kill-switch.",
 "Authority mix is skewed to lower tiers; conviction is driven primarily by breadth/recency-weighted mass under mass_consensus."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}