Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 17:21 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1-supply-tightening Near-term supply-side stress (crop disease/plant-health risk + logistics disruption + labour/input cost pressure) is more consistent with upward pressure on coffee futures than with relief. 62 up stable 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-2-demand-firm Consumption/retail-channel expansion signals (major chains and packaged/RTD launches) modestly reinforce demand firmness, limiting downside in coffee futures over the next day. 55 up fading 24h false 52
coffee B-coffee-3-harvest-relief Pockets of harvest-volume relief and retail price reductions imply a non-trivial downside/range risk in coffee futures if supply fears fail to refresh. 35 down stable 24h false 52

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260425T172142Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T17:21:42Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-coffee-1-supply-tightening", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term supply-side stress (crop disease/plant-health risk + logistics disruption + labour/input cost pressure) is more consistent with upward pressure on coffee futures than with relief.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "crop_conditions_disease", "shipping_freight", "labour_costs", "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-3-harvest-relief" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-2-demand-firm", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Consumption/retail-channel expansion signals (major chains and packaged/RTD launches) modestly reinforce demand firmness, limiting downside in coffee futures over the next day.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "consumption_trends" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-coffee-3-harvest-relief", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Pockets of harvest-volume relief and retail price reductions imply a non-trivial downside/range risk in coffee futures if supply fears fail to refresh.", "probability_pct": 35, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "origin_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-coffee-1-supply-tightening" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-coffee-1-supply-tightening", "B-coffee-2-demand-firm" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 15, "B": 2, "C": 1, "D": 35, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h": 3, "stale_24_72h": 6, "stale_gt_72h": 20 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A large share of the directional narrative is supported by slow-burn (>72h) evidence; conviction is capped despite broad thematic alignment." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Some (older, lower-authority) evidence points to harvest-volume/retail price reductions; if refreshed, it could move the state toward neutral." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_last_6h", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Within the most recent 6h window, the feed is comparatively thin versus the broader 30d backdrop; increases fragility." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Fresh (0-6h) confirmations of supply disruption / crop stress / freight disruption without matching harvest-relief counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals indicating supply relief (improved crop/harvest flow, easing freight) or broad retail price cuts tied to raw coffee input declines." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises (mixed supply signals) while fresh evidence count remains low, implying headline-driven whipsaw risk." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, 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"net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 25, "acceleration_score": 25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 25, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 25, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: coffee.", "Directional mapping interprets supply disruption / crop stress / logistics friction as price-bullish for coffee futures.", "Authority tier counts are indicative (not deduplicated across overlapping evidence bundles).", "Timeseries is sparse: only timestamps explicitly present in the admitted feed can be bucketed; empty buckets are conservative (low conviction / high fragility)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }