Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-side risk narratives (crop disease/plant health risks and logistics/shipping friction) remain the dominant, most widely repeated drivers. 62 up stable 24h false 62
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Consumption/retail expansion narratives add mild additional upside bias but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next 6–24 hours. 56 up fading 6h false 62
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Downside (or cap) risk exists if improved harvest/availability narratives dominate, pushing price/retail reductions and easing near-term supply anxiety. 38 down fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T120000Z-coffee-KC", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term coffee futures are biased upward as supply-side risk narratives (crop disease/plant health risks and logistics/shipping friction) remain the dominant, most widely repeated drivers.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Crop health / disease risk framing remains persistent (coffee plant health risks theme)", "Logistics / shipping disruption framing persists (shipping delays / trade flow friction theme)", "Trade/policy uncertainty narratives remain present (tariff / trade negotiation framing)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Consumption/retail expansion narratives add mild additional upside bias but are secondary to supply/logistics drivers over the next 6\u201324 hours.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Expansion of coffee retail chains / specialty coffee demand narrative", "Product and brand activity (single-source VIP items) as minor sentiment support" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Downside (or cap) risk exists if improved harvest/availability narratives dominate, pushing price/retail reductions and easing near-term supply anxiety.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Harvest volume / retail price reduction narrative (limited and older than the freshest supply-risk items in this packet)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-COFFEE-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-COFFEE-001", "B-COFFEE-002", "B-COFFEE-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 36, "B": 5, "C": 1, "D": 102, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 4, "fresh_24_72h": 7, "stale_72h_plus": 4 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "No strong opposing or confirming signals observed in the last ~6 hours of the packet; much of the driver set is >24h old, so momentum is treated as weakening even though direction remains bullish." }, { "flag_id": "counterevidence_present", "market": "coffee", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Some easing-supply / price-reduction narratives exist (e.g., harvest/retail price reduction framing), but they are not the freshest dominant items in this packet." }, { "flag_id": "single_source_vip_echo_risk", "market": "coffee", "severity": "low", "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source; treated as weak secondary demand/brand colour rather than primary directional evidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) supply/logistics escalation signals appear without matching fresh easing-supply counterevidence." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If shipping/policy headlines cluster intra-day (rapid velocity swings in the signal timeseries)." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If multiple independent fresh reports point to improving crop/harvest availability and easing logistics, materially raising contradiction in the last 6h window." }, { "market": "coffee", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If the packet remains update-sparse and conviction drops below ~55 due to staleness without fresh confirmation." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior 6B row). state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior implied.", "No <=2h fresh opposing evidence detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered.", "source_tier_counts is a proxy aggregate derived from top representative admitted trend bundles (non-unique evidence overlap risk).", "Momentum marked weakening due to freshness distribution skewing toward >6h and significant background persistence." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }