Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-25 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-001-6h |
Brent crude oil futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as geopolitical disruption and Strait of Hormuz blockade risk dominate the near-term narrative, raising perceived supply-risk premium. |
67 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-002-24h |
Brent crude oil futures are more likely than not to remain supported over the next 24 hours, but headline-driven volatility and de-escalation risk keep the thesis fragile. |
61 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T070000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001-6h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent crude oil futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as geopolitical disruption and Strait of Hormuz blockade risk dominate the near-term narrative, raising perceived supply-risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Strait of Hormuz disruption / blockade risk escalation",
"US/Iran conflict escalation narratives and naval activity headlines",
"Sanctions / waiver-denial themes tightening perceived supply availability",
"Secondary transport constraint signals (tanker rate surge) reinforcing supply chain stress framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002-24h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent crude oil futures are more likely than not to remain supported over the next 24 hours, but headline-driven volatility and de-escalation risk keep the thesis fragile.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent multi-source repetition of supply disruption framing",
"Regulatory/sanctions tightening narratives sustaining risk premium",
"Operational routing / shipping constraint spillovers"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential for rapid geopolitical de-escalation headlines (not observed in admitted corpus, but structurally plausible for this driver set)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-001-6h",
"B-crude_oil-002-24h"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 48,
"B": 17,
"C": 0,
"D": 484,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"approx_total_evidence_refs": 550,
"fresh_0_6h_est": 330,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 220,
"stale_24_72h_est": 0,
"stale_72h_plus_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional support is dominated by conflict/blockade/sanctions headlines; price response can gap both ways on single updates."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_on_deescalation_headline_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Medium reversal risk despite low in-corpus counterevidence because the driver set is inherently binary (escalation vs de-escalation)."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of the propagated corpus sits in lower-tier sources; conviction remains mass-driven but fragility is elevated."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_low_in_admitted_corpus",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No meaningful opposing direction evidence detected within admitted signals; reversal risk is primarily structural rather than contradiction-led."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent updates within the next 6h reinforce Hormuz disruption/blockade or sanctions tightening, with no fresh de-escalation counter-signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headlines indicate escalation/de-escalation inflection (e.g., shipping lane status changes, official statements, military incidents)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent de-escalation or supply-restoration signals arrive within 2h, materially increasing contradiction in the most recent window."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 81,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.",
"Directionality is interpreted as price-direction for crude oil (supply-disruption/geopolitical escalation narratives map to upside price pressure even when the narrative sentiment is negative).",
"No explicit in-corpus counter-direction signals were provided; reversal risk is set to medium due to event-driven binary catalysts rather than contradiction mass."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}