Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-25 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001-6h Brent crude oil futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as geopolitical disruption and Strait of Hormuz blockade risk dominate the near-term narrative, raising perceived supply-risk premium. 67 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002-24h Brent crude oil futures are more likely than not to remain supported over the next 24 hours, but headline-driven volatility and de-escalation risk keep the thesis fragile. 61 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260425T070000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001-6h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude oil futures have an upward bias over the next 6 hours as geopolitical disruption and Strait of Hormuz blockade risk dominate the near-term narrative, raising perceived supply-risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Strait of Hormuz disruption / blockade risk escalation",
 "US/Iran conflict escalation narratives and naval activity headlines",
 "Sanctions / waiver-denial themes tightening perceived supply availability",
 "Secondary transport constraint signals (tanker rate surge) reinforcing supply chain stress framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent crude oil futures are more likely than not to remain supported over the next 24 hours, but headline-driven volatility and de-escalation risk keep the thesis fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Persistent multi-source repetition of supply disruption framing",
 "Regulatory/sanctions tightening narratives sustaining risk premium",
 "Operational routing / shipping constraint spillovers"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential for rapid geopolitical de-escalation headlines (not observed in admitted corpus, but structurally plausible for this driver set)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001-6h",
 "B-crude_oil-002-24h"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 48,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 484,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "approx_total_evidence_refs": 550,
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 330,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 220,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 0,
 "stale_72h_plus_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional support is dominated by conflict/blockade/sanctions headlines; price response can gap both ways on single updates."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_on_deescalation_headline_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Medium reversal risk despite low in-corpus counterevidence because the driver set is inherently binary (escalation vs de-escalation)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of the propagated corpus sits in lower-tier sources; conviction remains mass-driven but fragility is elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_low_in_admitted_corpus",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No meaningful opposing direction evidence detected within admitted signals; reversal risk is primarily structural rather than contradiction-led."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent updates within the next 6h reinforce Hormuz disruption/blockade or sanctions tightening, with no fresh de-escalation counter-signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headlines indicate escalation/de-escalation inflection (e.g., shipping lane status changes, official statements, military incidents)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent de-escalation or supply-restoration signals arrive within 2h, materially increasing contradiction in the most recent window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 5,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T19:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
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 "acceleration_score": 6,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T22:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T23:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T00:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T01:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T02:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-25T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-25T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 81,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 74,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.",
 "Directionality is interpreted as price-direction for crude oil (supply-disruption/geopolitical escalation narratives map to upside price pressure even when the narrative sentiment is negative).",
 "No explicit in-corpus counter-direction signals were provided; reversal risk is set to medium due to event-driven binary catalysts rather than contradiction mass."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}