Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T07:03:34Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT Market-perception flow continues to support higher uranium demand expectations (policy + deployment narratives), sustaining an upward bias over next 24h. 63 up accelerating 24h false medium
uranium B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP Near-term (6h) uranium bias is modestly up but headline-volatility risk remains elevated due to geopolitical nuclear-news flow. 55 up stable 6h false medium
uranium B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK Policy/cost/safety pushback narratives can cap uranium upside and increase odds of a mixed tape within 24h. 38 down fading 24h false low
uranium B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX Short-horizon direction can flip to mixed if fresh policy-negative or de-escalatory geopolitical headlines cluster within the next 6h. 33 mixed stable 6h false low

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260424T070334Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T07:03:34Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Market-perception flow continues to support higher uranium demand expectations (policy + deployment narratives), sustaining an upward bias over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Nuclear buildout / revival narrative breadth (policy + deployment)",
 "US microreactor / DoD-related deployment attention (demand visibility)",
 "DOE fuel-cycle / recycling proposals (supply-chain + fuel security framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) uranium bias is modestly up but headline-volatility risk remains elevated due to geopolitical nuclear-news flow.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh late-cycle signal heat in nuclear/energy-security arenas",
 "Geopolitical nuclear risk headlines (risk premium sensitivity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy/cost/safety pushback narratives can cap uranium upside and increase odds of a mixed tape within 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Ratepayer/cost backlash framing around subsidies",
 "Safety/scrutiny narratives (single-source / low-diversity risk items)",
 "High share of low-authority sources increases narrative fragility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Short-horizon direction can flip to mixed if fresh policy-negative or de-escalatory geopolitical headlines cluster within the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 33,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Narrative whipsaw potential from geopolitics + regulation headlines",
 "Concentrated single-source VIP/risk items can distort the very-near-term read"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT",
 "B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 5,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 9,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Ongoing nuclear/geopolitical storyflow increases short-horizon whipsaw risk (even if net bias remains upward)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of propagation appears to come from lower-tier sources; increases fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_noise_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "uranium",
 "details": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source and can distort micro-horizon sentiment without confirming trend-level direction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while hourly net sentiment stays positive and contradiction_ratio does not spike above ~0.45."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if opposing-policy headlines cluster (2+ independent fresh items) inside a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if net sentiment flips negative for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat bias only if signal becomes data-sparse or kill-switch triggers (late-breaking invalidation)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}