Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T07:03:34Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT |
Market-perception flow continues to support higher uranium demand expectations (policy + deployment narratives), sustaining an upward bias over next 24h. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
medium |
| uranium |
B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP |
Near-term (6h) uranium bias is modestly up but headline-volatility risk remains elevated due to geopolitical nuclear-news flow. |
55 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
medium |
| uranium |
B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK |
Policy/cost/safety pushback narratives can cap uranium upside and increase odds of a mixed tape within 24h. |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
low |
| uranium |
B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX |
Short-horizon direction can flip to mixed if fresh policy-negative or de-escalatory geopolitical headlines cluster within the next 6h. |
33 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
low |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260424T070334Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T07:03:34Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Market-perception flow continues to support higher uranium demand expectations (policy + deployment narratives), sustaining an upward bias over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Nuclear buildout / revival narrative breadth (policy + deployment)",
"US microreactor / DoD-related deployment attention (demand visibility)",
"DOE fuel-cycle / recycling proposals (supply-chain + fuel security framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) uranium bias is modestly up but headline-volatility risk remains elevated due to geopolitical nuclear-news flow.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh late-cycle signal heat in nuclear/energy-security arenas",
"Geopolitical nuclear risk headlines (risk premium sensitivity)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-24H-POLICY_PUSHBACK",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy/cost/safety pushback narratives can cap uranium upside and increase odds of a mixed tape within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Ratepayer/cost backlash framing around subsidies",
"Safety/scrutiny narratives (single-source / low-diversity risk items)",
"High share of low-authority sources increases narrative fragility"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-6H-REVERSAL_RISK_MIX",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Short-horizon direction can flip to mixed if fresh policy-negative or de-escalatory geopolitical headlines cluster within the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 33,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Narrative whipsaw potential from geopolitics + regulation headlines",
"Concentrated single-source VIP/risk items can distort the very-near-term read"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-24H-NUCLEAR_BUILDOUT",
"B-UR-6H-VOLATILE_UP"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 5,
"B": 7,
"C": 0,
"D": 9,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 7,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"stale_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Ongoing nuclear/geopolitical storyflow increases short-horizon whipsaw risk (even if net bias remains upward)."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but a large portion of propagation appears to come from lower-tier sources; increases fragility."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_noise_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"market": "uranium",
"details": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source and can distort micro-horizon sentiment without confirming trend-level direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while hourly net sentiment stays positive and contradiction_ratio does not spike above ~0.45."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if opposing-policy headlines cluster (2+ independent fresh items) inside a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if net sentiment flips negative for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Prefer flat bias only if signal becomes data-sparse or kill-switch triggers (late-breaking invalidation)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 89,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 95,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 97,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
}
}