Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_directional_tape (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T06:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B1 Over the next 6–24h, silver futures are slightly biased lower as macro/real-yield and USD-related narratives dominate near-term flow, keeping rallies capped. 55 down stable 24h false 59
silver B2 Near-term uncertainty-driven demand is providing support, increasing the likelihood of choppy/rangebound trade rather than a clean breakdown. 52 mixed stable 6h false 59
silver B3 Over the next ~30d, continued mining/exploration project cadence modestly increases perceived future supply, adding a mild upside cap (background, not a short-term driver). 57 down fading 30d false 59

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T063000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, silver futures are slightly biased lower as macro/real-yield and USD-related narratives dominate near-term flow, keeping rallies capped.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "monetary_policy",
 "investment_flows",
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term uncertainty-driven demand is providing support, increasing the likelihood of choppy/rangebound trade rather than a clean breakdown.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "geopolitical_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next ~30d, continued mining/exploration project cadence modestly increases perceived future supply, adding a mild upside cap (background, not a short-term driver).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "30d",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 15,
 "D": 238,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 2,
 "stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 1,
 "fresh_evidence_estimate": 75,
 "stale_evidence_estimate": 175,
 "contradiction_ratio_estimate": 0.42
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_flag": "mixed_directional_tape",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Fresh narratives include both downside-leaning and support/rangebound framings; net score remains inside neutral band."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_flag": "macro_sensitivity_usd_real_rates",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Near-term signal balance is highly exposed to shifts in USD strength/real rates/monetary-policy framing."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_flag": "authority_skew_low_tiers",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad but the admitted corpus is dominated by lower-tier sources; treat conviction as more fragile."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_flag": "single_source_outlier_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some silver-specific forward forecasts/events appear as singleton signals and should not dominate direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "risk_flag": "mine_supply_background_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Exploration/project-development cadence is a background headwind; more relevant for >24h horizons than for 6h."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain until net directional_score_signed breaks out of neutral band (>= +20 or <= -20) with improving freshness/consensus."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction ratio rises above ~0.55 while fresh evidence count increases (whipsaw risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh opposing cluster (2+ independent records within 2h) flips the signed score across the +/-20 boundary."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only consider if bearish pressure sustains (directional_score_signed <= -20) for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with falling contradiction ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).",
 "Most non-silver trends (e.g., gold-only narratives) were not force-mapped to silver to avoid cross-market contamination.",
 "Admitted silver signals remain mixed; directional_score stays mostly inside neutral band with a brief bearish dip.",
 "Authority mix is skewed to lower tiers across admitted evidence bundles; conviction held moderate and fragility elevated."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}