Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mixed_directional_tape (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T06:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B1 |
Over the next 6–24h, silver futures are slightly biased lower as macro/real-yield and USD-related narratives dominate near-term flow, keeping rallies capped. |
55 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
59 |
| silver |
B2 |
Near-term uncertainty-driven demand is providing support, increasing the likelihood of choppy/rangebound trade rather than a clean breakdown. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
59 |
| silver |
B3 |
Over the next ~30d, continued mining/exploration project cadence modestly increases perceived future supply, adding a mild upside cap (background, not a short-term driver). |
57 |
down |
fading |
30d |
false |
59 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T063000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6\u201324h, silver futures are slightly biased lower as macro/real-yield and USD-related narratives dominate near-term flow, keeping rallies capped.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"monetary_policy",
"investment_flows",
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term uncertainty-driven demand is providing support, increasing the likelihood of choppy/rangebound trade rather than a clean breakdown.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next ~30d, continued mining/exploration project cadence modestly increases perceived future supply, adding a mild upside cap (background, not a short-term driver).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "30d",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 2,
"C": 15,
"D": 238,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 5,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 2,
"stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 1,
"fresh_evidence_estimate": 75,
"stale_evidence_estimate": 175,
"contradiction_ratio_estimate": 0.42
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"risk_flag": "mixed_directional_tape",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Fresh narratives include both downside-leaning and support/rangebound framings; net score remains inside neutral band."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"risk_flag": "macro_sensitivity_usd_real_rates",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Near-term signal balance is highly exposed to shifts in USD strength/real rates/monetary-policy framing."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"risk_flag": "authority_skew_low_tiers",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional mass is broad but the admitted corpus is dominated by lower-tier sources; treat conviction as more fragile."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"risk_flag": "single_source_outlier_risk",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some silver-specific forward forecasts/events appear as singleton signals and should not dominate direction."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"risk_flag": "mine_supply_background_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Exploration/project-development cadence is a background headwind; more relevant for >24h horizons than for 6h."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain until net directional_score_signed breaks out of neutral band (>= +20 or <= -20) with improving freshness/consensus."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction ratio rises above ~0.55 while fresh evidence count increases (whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if a fresh opposing cluster (2+ independent records within 2h) flips the signed score across the +/-20 boundary."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only consider if bearish pressure sustains (directional_score_signed <= -20) for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with falling contradiction ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 2,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: silver (explicit).",
"Most non-silver trends (e.g., gold-only narratives) were not force-mapped to silver to avoid cross-market contamination.",
"Admitted silver signals remain mixed; directional_score stays mostly inside neutral band with a brief bearish dip.",
"Authority mix is skewed to lower tiers across admitted evidence bundles; conviction held moderate and fragility elevated."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}