Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T15:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as LNG-linked geopolitical supply-risk premium dominates the narrative (Hormuz/ME conflict disruption themes + EU storage shortfall framing). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
67 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Downside/reversion risk is elevated if demand softens (e.g., reduced LNG import appetite) and/or storage/injection season narratives regain control, compressing risk premium quickly. |
48 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
67 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_2026-04-24T15:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T15:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as LNG-linked geopolitical supply-risk premium dominates the narrative (Hormuz/ME conflict disruption themes + EU storage shortfall framing).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical disruption / shipping-risk premium impacting LNG flows",
"EU gas storage shortfall narrative",
"Ongoing LNG supply disruption framing (multi-source, broad coverage)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Downside/reversion risk is elevated if demand softens (e.g., reduced LNG import appetite) and/or storage/injection season narratives regain control, compressing risk premium quickly.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Demand-side softness signals (LNG import reduction theme)",
"Storage/injection season overhang theme (limited corroboration; lower authority density)",
"Event-driven risk premium can unwind quickly on de-escalation headlines"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 11,
"C": 3,
"D": 220,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": "moderate",
"fresh_6_24h": "high",
"fresh_24_72h": "moderate",
"stale_over_72h": "low"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Directional bias is heavily influenced by event-driven LNG disruption / conflict narratives; subject to rapid headline reversals."
},
{
"flag": "counterevidence_present_demand_storage",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Demand-softness (LNG imports) and storage/injection season narratives are present and can cap upside / trigger pullbacks."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Broad directional mass exists, but a large share of amplification appears from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "High sensitivity to de-escalation / ceasefire / shipping safety updates (risk premium compression)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmation (<=6h) that LNG flows are constrained or shipping risk is escalating, without simultaneous strong storage-build confirmation."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any fast change in conflict/shipping headlines or official statements that materially shift perceived LNG supply risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) multi-source evidence of easing disruption + stronger-than-expected storage/injection narratives (or clear demand weakening) reducing net bullish mass."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises further and directional score falls inside the neutral band (|score| < 20) while fragility remains elevated."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change computed without a provided prior market_state_table; treated prior as neutral baseline for state machine purposes.",
"Source tier counts are aggregated across admitted trend bundles and may include duplicates due to overlapping evidence sets.",
"Counterevidence (demand/storage narratives) reduces conviction and raises fragility, but does not trigger kill-switch due to lack of strong fresh opposing mass within the last 2 hours."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}