Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T15:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as LNG-linked geopolitical supply-risk premium dominates the narrative (Hormuz/ME conflict disruption themes + EU storage shortfall framing). 62 up accelerating 6h false 67
natural_gas B-NG-002 Downside/reversion risk is elevated if demand softens (e.g., reduced LNG import appetite) and/or storage/injection season narratives regain control, compressing risk premium quickly. 48 down stable 24h false 67

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_2026-04-24T15:05:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T15:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as LNG-linked geopolitical supply-risk premium dominates the narrative (Hormuz/ME conflict disruption themes + EU storage shortfall framing).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical disruption / shipping-risk premium impacting LNG flows",
 "EU gas storage shortfall narrative",
 "Ongoing LNG supply disruption framing (multi-source, broad coverage)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Downside/reversion risk is elevated if demand softens (e.g., reduced LNG import appetite) and/or storage/injection season narratives regain control, compressing risk premium quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Demand-side softness signals (LNG import reduction theme)",
 "Storage/injection season overhang theme (limited corroboration; lower authority density)",
 "Event-driven risk premium can unwind quickly on de-escalation headlines"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 11,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 220,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": "moderate",
 "fresh_6_24h": "high",
 "fresh_24_72h": "moderate",
 "stale_over_72h": "low"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_risk_premium_dominant",
 "severity": "high",
 "note": "Directional bias is heavily influenced by event-driven LNG disruption / conflict narratives; subject to rapid headline reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counterevidence_present_demand_storage",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Demand-softness (LNG imports) and storage/injection season narratives are present and can cap upside / trigger pullbacks."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Broad directional mass exists, but a large share of amplification appears from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "High sensitivity to de-escalation / ceasefire / shipping safety updates (risk premium compression)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh confirmation (<=6h) that LNG flows are constrained or shipping risk is escalating, without simultaneous strong storage-build confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fast change in conflict/shipping headlines or official statements that materially shift perceived LNG supply risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) multi-source evidence of easing disruption + stronger-than-expected storage/injection narratives (or clear demand weakening) reducing net bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises further and directional score falls inside the neutral band (|score| < 20) while fragility remains elevated."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 38,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "State-change computed without a provided prior market_state_table; treated prior as neutral baseline for state machine purposes.",
 "Source tier counts are aggregated across admitted trend bundles and may include duplicates due to overlapping evidence sets.",
 "Counterevidence (demand/storage narratives) reduces conviction and raises fragility, but does not trigger kill-switch due to lack of strong fresh opposing mass within the last 2 hours."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}