1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T15:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:| | lithium | LITH-B1 | Net information flow implies a modest upward bias for lithium futures over the next 24h, driven by EV/battery ecosystem demand narratives and battery-technology progress headlines. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 | | lithium | LITH-B2 | Supply-side constraint framing (supply deficit / refinery viability / price-protection narratives) supports reduced downside and mild upside pressure in lithium futures over the next 6–24h. | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 46 | | lithium | LITH-B3 | Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial in the next 6h due to policy/tariff and regulatory-uncertainty items that could rapidly shift sentiment even without broad corroboration. | 41 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 46 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-2026-04-24T15:10:00Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T15:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-B1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Net information flow implies a modest upward bias for lithium futures over the next 24h, driven by EV/battery ecosystem demand narratives and battery-technology progress headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "LITH-B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-B2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side constraint framing (supply deficit / refinery viability / price-protection narratives) supports reduced downside and mild upside pressure in lithium futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lithium_mining_supply",
 "refining_capacity",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "policy uncertainty / tariff narratives (single-source heavy in this packet)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "LITH-B3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial in the next 6h due to policy/tariff and regulatory-uncertainty items that could rapidly shift sentiment even without broad corroboration.",
 "probability_pct": 41,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_policy_subsidies",
 "china_policy",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "broad positive EV/battery-tech flow across multiple trend clusters"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "LITH-B1",
 "LITH-B2",
 "LITH-B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 3,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 45,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 5,
 "stale_gt_24h_signals_est": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional support is broad but partially indirect (EV/battery headlines proxying lithium demand); policy/tariff items can flip sentiment quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Authority-tier anchors exist but much of the breadth is lower-tier amplification; treat conviction as moderate rather than high."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_overlap_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple trends share overlapping evidence pools; directional mass is treated as breadth-of-themes, not independent confirmations."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while 1\u20136h buckets remain >= +20 signed sentiment and no fresh opposing cluster emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal_watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.18 or if 2+ independent negative policy/supply-chain items appear within a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility_watch if directional_score_signed changes by >= 20 points within 3 consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed policy/regulatory risk items and indirectness of EV-tech-to-lithium linkage.",
 "Prior state unavailable; state_change computed against neutral baseline assumption."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}