- Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T15:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:| | lithium | LITH-B1 | Net information flow implies a modest upward bias for lithium futures over the next 24h, driven by EV/battery ecosystem demand narratives and battery-technology progress headlines. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 | | lithium | LITH-B2 | Supply-side constraint framing (supply deficit / refinery viability / price-protection narratives) supports reduced downside and mild upside pressure in lithium futures over the next 6–24h. | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 46 | | lithium | LITH-B3 | Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial in the next 6h due to policy/tariff and regulatory-uncertainty items that could rapidly shift sentiment even without broad corroboration. | 41 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-2026-04-24T15:10:00Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T15:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "LITH-B1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Net information flow implies a modest upward bias for lithium futures over the next 24h, driven by EV/battery ecosystem demand narratives and battery-technology progress headlines.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"LITH-B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-B2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side constraint framing (supply deficit / refinery viability / price-protection narratives) supports reduced downside and mild upside pressure in lithium futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lithium_mining_supply",
"refining_capacity",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"policy uncertainty / tariff narratives (single-source heavy in this packet)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 47,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "LITH-B3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial in the next 6h due to policy/tariff and regulatory-uncertainty items that could rapidly shift sentiment even without broad corroboration.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"ev_policy_subsidies",
"china_policy",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"broad positive EV/battery-tech flow across multiple trend clusters"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"LITH-B1",
"LITH-B2",
"LITH-B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 3,
"B": 8,
"C": 7,
"D": 45,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 5,
"stale_gt_24h_signals_est": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional support is broad but partially indirect (EV/battery headlines proxying lithium demand); policy/tariff items can flip sentiment quickly."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Authority-tier anchors exist but much of the breadth is lower-tier amplification; treat conviction as moderate rather than high."
},
{
"flag": "data_overlap_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Multiple trends share overlapping evidence pools; directional mass is treated as breadth-of-themes, not independent confirmations."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while 1\u20136h buckets remain >= +20 signed sentiment and no fresh opposing cluster emerges."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal_watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.18 or if 2+ independent negative policy/supply-chain items appear within a 2h window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility_watch if directional_score_signed changes by >= 20 points within 3 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed policy/regulatory risk items and indirectness of EV-tech-to-lithium linkage.",
"Prior state unavailable; state_change computed against neutral baseline assumption."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}