Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures (GC)
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: GC
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 1
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-24h-fragile-range Gold directionality over the next 6–24h is likely mixed/rangebound because the admitted drivers are dominated by stale geopolitical-risk narratives with limited fresh, gold-specific confirmation in the last 72h. 57 mixed fading 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures (GC)",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-24h-fragile-range",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold directionality over the next 6\u201324h is likely mixed/rangebound because the admitted drivers are dominated by stale geopolitical-risk narratives with limited fresh, gold-specific confirmation in the last 72h.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (mostly stale corpus)",
 "policy/macro headlines (stale; indirect to gold)",
 "thin fresh signal density"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 46,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-24h-fragile-range"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 9,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 12,
 "seed_only_0_24h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most admitted trend/VIP evidence timestamps cluster around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, making them >72h stale versus the 2026-04-24 snapshot."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Insufficient fresh, gold-specific evidence in the last 24\u201372h to support a directional call under the user\u2019s min_evidence_threshold intent."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "With low freshness confidence, any new macro print (real rates/USD) or credible flow headline can flip the stance quickly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral label state while freshness_confidence=low and no corroborated 0\u201324h evidence links core drivers (real rates/USD/CB flows) to gold direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if a fresh (<=6h) macro/central-bank/ETF-flow catalyst appears that is directionally consistent across multiple independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal_watch only if a fresh opposite-direction cluster forms (>=2 independent records inside 2h) causing a material contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as gold; analysis constrained to single-market scope.",
 "Most available signals are >72h old (clustered around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09). Stale suppression applied; directional call downgraded to neutral_mixed.",
 "A very recent seed-level risk anomaly exists (2026-04-24) but is not gold-specific and lacks materialised evidence records; treated as weak and high-fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}