Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_signal_environment
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1_supply_constraints_upside Near-term copper pricing bias is upward as supply-side constraints/disruptions (e.g., processing/input bottlenecks and mine/supply-chain frictions) raise upside risk in the next 24h. 63 up stable 24h false 45
copper B2_policy_infra_demand_support Infrastructure/grid capex and electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain supportive for copper sentiment over the next 24h. 58 up accelerating 24h false 45
copper B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk There is a meaningful (but secondary) pullback risk over the next 6h if demand/macro headlines dominate (e.g., weak export/flow signals), producing choppy two-way trade rather than a clean continuation. 34 down fading 6h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1_supply_constraints_upside",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper pricing bias is upward as supply-side constraints/disruptions (e.g., processing/input bottlenecks and mine/supply-chain frictions) raise upside risk in the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2_policy_infra_demand_support",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Infrastructure/grid capex and electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain supportive for copper sentiment over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "There is a meaningful (but secondary) pullback risk over the next 6h if demand/macro headlines dominate (e.g., weak export/flow signals), producing choppy two-way trade rather than a clean continuation.",
 "probability_pct": 34,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1_supply_constraints_upside",
 "B2_policy_infra_demand_support"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1_supply_constraints_upside",
 "B2_policy_infra_demand_support",
 "B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 9,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_signal_environment",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "At least one admitted strand explicitly frames the copper setup as 'mixed', increasing short-horizon chop risk even with an overall bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_evidence_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but much of the amplification comes from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source (echo-risk flagged), which can exaggerate perceived shifts without corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly net sentiment stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25 over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if velocity flips sign twice within 3 consecutive hourly buckets or contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if net sentiment falls below +20 and bearish_pressure_score rises above 45 for 2 consecutive hourly buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 36,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish for this cycle.",
 "Source tier counts approximated from trend narrative anchor tiers (not a de-duplicated per-article tier sum).",
 "No explicit contradictions list supplied; reversal risk elevated to 'medium' primarily due to mixed-signal framing and presence of negative/echo-risk outliers."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}