Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mixed_signal_environment
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B1_supply_constraints_upside |
Near-term copper pricing bias is upward as supply-side constraints/disruptions (e.g., processing/input bottlenecks and mine/supply-chain frictions) raise upside risk in the next 24h. |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| copper |
B2_policy_infra_demand_support |
Infrastructure/grid capex and electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain supportive for copper sentiment over the next 24h. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
45 |
| copper |
B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk |
There is a meaningful (but secondary) pullback risk over the next 6h if demand/macro headlines dominate (e.g., weak export/flow signals), producing choppy two-way trade rather than a clean continuation. |
34 |
down |
fading |
6h |
false |
45 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1_supply_constraints_upside",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper pricing bias is upward as supply-side constraints/disruptions (e.g., processing/input bottlenecks and mine/supply-chain frictions) raise upside risk in the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2_policy_infra_demand_support",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Infrastructure/grid capex and electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain supportive for copper sentiment over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"energy_transition_demand",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "There is a meaningful (but secondary) pullback risk over the next 6h if demand/macro headlines dominate (e.g., weak export/flow signals), producing choppy two-way trade rather than a clean continuation.",
"probability_pct": 34,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1_supply_constraints_upside",
"B2_policy_infra_demand_support"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1_supply_constraints_upside",
"B2_policy_infra_demand_support",
"B3_demand_softness_pullback_risk"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 9,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
"stale_24_72h_est": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_signal_environment",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "At least one admitted strand explicitly frames the copper setup as 'mixed', increasing short-horizon chop risk even with an overall bullish bias."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_evidence_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but much of the amplification comes from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source (echo-risk flagged), which can exaggerate perceived shifts without corroboration."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while hourly net sentiment stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.25 over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if velocity flips sign twice within 3 consecutive hourly buckets or contradiction_ratio rises above 0.30."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if net sentiment falls below +20 and bearish_pressure_score rises above 45 for 2 consecutive hourly buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 36,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish for this cycle.",
"Source tier counts approximated from trend narrative anchor tiers (not a de-duplicated per-article tier sum).",
"No explicit contradictions list supplied; reversal risk elevated to 'medium' primarily due to mixed-signal framing and presence of negative/echo-risk outliers."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}