Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-geo-event-volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T14:50:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Escalation risk and disruption narratives around Iran/Strait of Hormuz are adding a supply-risk premium that supports higher Brent crude over the next 6–24 hours. 70 up accelerating 24h false 55
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 US/Iran naval and enforcement headlines (e.g., shipping paralysis, strikes/seizures) are increasing near-term upside skew and volatility for Brent. 64 up accelerating 6h false 55
crude_oil B-crude_oil-003 Second-order macro/inflation/recession concerns are a plausible cap/whipsaw mechanism within 24 hours, even if the immediate supply-risk impulse remains dominant. 40 mixed stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T145000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T14:50:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Escalation risk and disruption narratives around Iran/Strait of Hormuz are adding a supply-risk premium that supports higher Brent crude over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage",
 "opec_supply_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "US/Iran naval and enforcement headlines (e.g., shipping paralysis, strikes/seizures) are increasing near-term upside skew and volatility for Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "refining_constraints",
 "supply_chain_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Second-order macro/inflation/recession concerns are a plausible cap/whipsaw mechanism within 24 hours, even if the immediate supply-risk impulse remains dominant.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "currency_conditions",
 "risk_sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002",
 "B-crude_oil-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 25,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 565,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.9,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.1,
 "stale_gt_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-geo-event-volatility",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Event-driven geopolitics: strong upside mass but inherently fast-changing headline flow; monitor for de-escalation/route-normalisation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-authority-mix-skew",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "type": "authority_concentration_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad and fresh, but authority-tier mix is skewed toward lower tiers; treat single-source VIP items as non-decisive unless corroborated."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (\u22646h) Hormuz disruption/escalation coverage persists and contradiction remains low (<0.2) in the next 1\u20132 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If rapid new operational headlines continue (shipping paralysis/strikes/seizures) or if hourly directional-score swings exceed 20 points."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent, high-credibility de-escalation / reopening / supply-normalisation signals appear within a 2-hour window."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking invalidation cluster emerges (fresh opposing signals \u22642h from 2+ independent sources) causing a contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 10,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 14,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 20,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 24,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 28,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 76,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 22,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is therefore not elevated by counterevidence (but whipsaw risk remains due to event-driven catalysts).",
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided); state_change set to 'unchanged' as unknown_prior fallback."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}