Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-24T06:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Near-term Brent crude pricing is dominated by a rising geopolitical risk premium centred on Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption narratives, biasing prices upward over the next 6–24 hours. 68 up accelerating 6h false 56
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 Oil-market conditions are prone to headline whipsaw (ceasefire / escalation / maritime security updates), keeping reversal risk elevated even while the net directional bias remains upward. 62 mixed stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T064500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T06:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term Brent crude pricing is dominated by a rising geopolitical risk premium centred on Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption narratives, biasing prices upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "shipping_chokepoint_risk (Strait of Hormuz)",
 "sanctions_enforcement / tanker seizure narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No meaningful fresh, price-direction-opposing evidence admitted in the current corpus window (counterevidence is mostly absence-of-confirmation rather than opposing facts)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Oil-market conditions are prone to headline whipsaw (ceasefire / escalation / maritime security updates), keeping reversal risk elevated even while the net directional bias remains upward.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "macro_demand (inflation / energy-cost pass-through narratives)",
 "inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity to perceived tightness)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If credible de-escalation / reopening signals emerge within a 0\u20132h window from multiple independent sources, this belief weakens quickly."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 14,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 235,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 9,
 "stale_over_24h_signal_count": 0
 },
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "description": "Event-driven geopolitical headlines can flip intraday sentiment quickly even without structural counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "medium",
 "flag": "authority_skew_low",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence items originate from lower-authority tiers; maintain higher fragility despite bullish direction."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "level": "low",
 "flag": "counterevidence_sparsity",
 "description": "Current corpus contains little fresh opposing evidence; reversal risk is driven by potential new information rather than existing counter-signals."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical disruption signals persist (multi-source) without credible de-escalation within the next 2\u20136 hours.",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If intraday headline flow continues to reference Hormuz disruption / maritime escalation, implying elevated volatility regardless of direction.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent credible sources within a 0\u20132h window indicate de-escalation / reopening / reduced disruption risk, reducing the risk premium.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking hard invalidator arrives (official confirmation of normalised shipping flows + absence of disruption), temporarily cap conviction until corroboration.",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence becomes internally mixed (contradiction ratio rises materially) or freshness declines without confirmation.",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:45:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 74,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 74,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:45:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:45:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 76,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil (single-market).",
 "Directional interpretation: broad risk/disruption narratives map to upward price pressure for crude oil despite negative general-news sentiment labels.",
 "Counterevidence set is thin (no admitted fresh opposing price-direction signals), so reversal risk is driven by potential future de-escalation headlines rather than present contradictions.",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}