Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-24T06:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude_oil-001 | Near-term Brent crude pricing is dominated by a rising geopolitical risk premium centred on Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption narratives, biasing prices upward over the next 6–24 hours. | 68 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 56 |
| crude_oil | B-crude_oil-002 | Oil-market conditions are prone to headline whipsaw (ceasefire / escalation / maritime security updates), keeping reversal risk elevated even while the net directional bias remains upward. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260424T064500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-24T06:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term Brent crude pricing is dominated by a rising geopolitical risk premium centred on Iran / Strait of Hormuz disruption narratives, biasing prices upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"shipping_chokepoint_risk (Strait of Hormuz)",
"sanctions_enforcement / tanker seizure narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No meaningful fresh, price-direction-opposing evidence admitted in the current corpus window (counterevidence is mostly absence-of-confirmation rather than opposing facts)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 82,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Oil-market conditions are prone to headline whipsaw (ceasefire / escalation / maritime security updates), keeping reversal risk elevated even while the net directional bias remains upward.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"macro_demand (inflation / energy-cost pass-through narratives)",
"inventory_storage (risk-premium sensitivity to perceived tightness)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If credible de-escalation / reopening signals emerge within a 0\u20132h window from multiple independent sources, this belief weakens quickly."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 88,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-001",
"B-crude_oil-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 14,
"C": 0,
"D": 235,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 9,
"stale_over_24h_signal_count": 0
},
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"description": "Event-driven geopolitical headlines can flip intraday sentiment quickly even without structural counterevidence."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "medium",
"flag": "authority_skew_low",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence items originate from lower-authority tiers; maintain higher fragility despite bullish direction."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"level": "low",
"flag": "counterevidence_sparsity",
"description": "Current corpus contains little fresh opposing evidence; reversal risk is driven by potential new information rather than existing counter-signals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical disruption signals persist (multi-source) without credible de-escalation within the next 2\u20136 hours.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If intraday headline flow continues to reference Hormuz disruption / maritime escalation, implying elevated volatility regardless of direction.",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent credible sources within a 0\u20132h window indicate de-escalation / reopening / reduced disruption risk, reducing the risk premium.",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking hard invalidator arrives (official confirmation of normalised shipping flows + absence of disruption), temporarily cap conviction until corroboration.",
"action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch"
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence becomes internally mixed (contradiction ratio rises materially) or freshness declines without confirmation.",
"action_label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:45:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:45:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 12,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T15:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T16:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T16:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T17:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T17:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T18:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T18:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T19:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T19:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T20:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T20:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T21:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T21:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T22:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T22:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T23:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T23:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T00:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T00:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T01:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T01:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T02:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T02:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T03:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T03:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T04:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 74,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 74,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T04:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T05:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 90,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-24T05:45:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-24T06:45:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil (single-market).",
"Directional interpretation: broad risk/disruption narratives map to upward price pressure for crude oil despite negative general-news sentiment labels.",
"Counterevidence set is thin (no admitted fresh opposing price-direction signals), so reversal risk is driven by potential future de-escalation headlines rather than present contradictions.",
"State_change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}