Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_CONCENTRATION
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Broad, fresh policy/industry narrative remains supportive of higher uranium prices via sustained nuclear buildout/revival signalling. 64 up accelerating 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-002 Supply/flow constraints and geopolitical handling of uranium stockpiles continue to bias perceived supply tightness upward. 62 up stable 24h false 58
uranium B-UR-003 Policy/regulatory backlash and safety/cost narratives are present but fragmented; raise whipsaw/reversal risk more than sustained bearish thesis. 46 mixed stable 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260423T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Broad, fresh policy/industry narrative remains supportive of higher uranium prices via sustained nuclear buildout/revival signalling (demand-side support).",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "global nuclear revival / deployment acceleration signalling",
 "regulatory/investment support headlines (NRC/DOE-adjacent)",
 "microreactor / advanced reactor deployment narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply/flow constraints and geopolitical handling of uranium stockpiles continue to bias perceived supply tightness upward (supportive for uranium).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Russia/Kazakhstan strategic reserve framing",
 "US/Russia enriched uranium restriction framing",
 "Iran uranium stockpile / removal-operation narratives raising supply-chain uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy/regulatory backlash and safety/cost narratives are present but mostly fragmented; they raise whipsaw/reversal risk more than they establish a sustained bearish uranium thesis.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor safety concern headlines (sparse, single-source)",
 "subsidy/cost burden narratives (sparse)",
 "reprocessing/waste-fund risk narratives (sparse)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0,
 "methodology_note": "Estimated from trend-level authority tier counts; overlapping evidence across trends may inflate/deflate true unique counts."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 6,
 "signals_6_24h": 2,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 },
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 42,
 "reversal_triggered": false,
 "reversal_evidence_summary": "Opposing narratives exist (safety/cost/regulatory criticism) but are sparse vs. broad pro-nuclear demand/supply-tightness framing; monitor for clustering of high-authority negative updates."
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_CONCENTRATION",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad but source authority mix is skewed toward lower tiers; conviction is therefore more sentiment-driven than institutionally confirmed."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-GEOPOLITICAL_WHIPSAW",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Iran/Russia-related uranium narratives can flip quickly; headline-driven reversals are plausible even without gradual build-up."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-REGULATORY_BACKLASH_TAILRISK",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Safety/cost/subsidy criticism appears intermittently; if it consolidates across multiple independent sources, reversal risk increases."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-ECHO_RISK_MICROCLUSTERS",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source; treat them as early warning only until second-source confirmation arrives."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish state persists AND next cycle shows fresh confirmations without a contradiction spike (no late-breaking high-authority bearish cluster)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing signals arrive inside a 2h window OR contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence turns mixed."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/stockpile narratives accelerate (rapid update cadence) alongside mixed policy headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse (fresh evidence count collapses) and direction returns to neutral_mixed."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
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 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used available trend-level proxies (freshness via newest timestamps; authority via tier counts; momentum via clustering of fresh updates).",
 "Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish based on current bullish classification.",
 "Counterevidence exists primarily as sparse policy/safety/cost critiques; monitored via reversal_risk=medium rather than flipping direction."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}