Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_CONCENTRATION
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Broad, fresh policy/industry narrative remains supportive of higher uranium prices via sustained nuclear buildout/revival signalling. | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Supply/flow constraints and geopolitical handling of uranium stockpiles continue to bias perceived supply tightness upward. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Policy/regulatory backlash and safety/cost narratives are present but fragmented; raise whipsaw/reversal risk more than sustained bearish thesis. | 46 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260423T150000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Broad, fresh policy/industry narrative remains supportive of higher uranium prices via sustained nuclear buildout/revival signalling (demand-side support).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"global nuclear revival / deployment acceleration signalling",
"regulatory/investment support headlines (NRC/DOE-adjacent)",
"microreactor / advanced reactor deployment narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply/flow constraints and geopolitical handling of uranium stockpiles continue to bias perceived supply tightness upward (supportive for uranium).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Russia/Kazakhstan strategic reserve framing",
"US/Russia enriched uranium restriction framing",
"Iran uranium stockpile / removal-operation narratives raising supply-chain uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy/regulatory backlash and safety/cost narratives are present but mostly fragmented; they raise whipsaw/reversal risk more than they establish a sustained bearish uranium thesis.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"reactor safety concern headlines (sparse, single-source)",
"subsidy/cost burden narratives (sparse)",
"reprocessing/waste-fund risk narratives (sparse)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 10,
"C": 6,
"D": 1,
"U": 0,
"methodology_note": "Estimated from trend-level authority tier counts; overlapping evidence across trends may inflate/deflate true unique counts."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 6,
"signals_6_24h": 2,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
},
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 28,
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 42,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": "Opposing narratives exist (safety/cost/regulatory criticism) but are sparse vs. broad pro-nuclear demand/supply-tightness framing; monitor for clustering of high-authority negative updates."
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-LOW_AUTHORITY_CONCENTRATION",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad but source authority mix is skewed toward lower tiers; conviction is therefore more sentiment-driven than institutionally confirmed."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-GEOPOLITICAL_WHIPSAW",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Iran/Russia-related uranium narratives can flip quickly; headline-driven reversals are plausible even without gradual build-up."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-REGULATORY_BACKLASH_TAILRISK",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Safety/cost/subsidy criticism appears intermittently; if it consolidates across multiple independent sources, reversal risk increases."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-ECHO_RISK_MICROCLUSTERS",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source; treat them as early warning only until second-source confirmation arrives."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish state persists AND next cycle shows fresh confirmations without a contradiction spike (no late-breaking high-authority bearish cluster)."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing signals arrive inside a 2h window OR contradiction ratio rises materially while fresh evidence turns mixed."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/stockpile narratives accelerate (rapid update cadence) alongside mixed policy headlines."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse (fresh evidence count collapses) and direction returns to neutral_mixed."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used available trend-level proxies (freshness via newest timestamps; authority via tier counts; momentum via clustering of fresh updates).",
"Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish based on current bullish classification.",
"Counterevidence exists primarily as sparse policy/safety/cost critiques; monitored via reversal_risk=medium rather than flipping direction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}