Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-04-23 14:55 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-001 | Near-term natural gas futures sentiment is biased upward as geopolitical disruption risk lifts LNG/shipping risk-premium and tightness expectations. | 64 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B-002 | US LNG export flow narrative (record/strong export activity) reinforces a tighter domestic balance bias over the next 6\u201324 hours. | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 61 |
| natural_gas | B-003 | Counterpressure exists from narratives consistent with softer LNG demand (e.g., reduced Asia LNG imports) and alternative supply routes/pricing (e.g., discounted pipeline gas deals), which can cap upside and raise reversal risk. | 44 | down | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260423T145500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:55:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures sentiment is biased upward as geopolitical disruption risk lifts LNG/shipping risk-premium and tightness expectations.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "US LNG export flow narrative (record/strong export activity) reinforces a tighter domestic balance bias over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"storage_levels"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Counterpressure exists from narratives consistent with softer LNG demand (e.g., reduced Asia LNG imports) and alternative supply routes/pricing (e.g., discounted pipeline gas deals), which can cap upside and raise reversal risk.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-001",
"B-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-001",
"B-002",
"B-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 5,
"B": 1,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_6_24h": 2,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Energy-geopolitics driven narratives dominate; rapid update cadence can whipsaw sentiment within hours."
},
{
"flag": "cross_market_basis_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of evidence is LNG/global-gas and shipping-risk oriented; Henry Hub linkage may be indirect in the 6\u201324h window."
},
{
"flag": "counterevidence_present_recent",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Soft-demand / alternative-supply narratives may cap upside and raise reversal probability."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG/shipping disruption risk headlines persist without offsetting demand-destruction confirmation in the next 6\u201312 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fast-timestamp geopolitical updates arrive (<=2\u20133 hours apart), expect elevated intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If multiple independent updates confirm LNG demand drop / de-escalation, directional score may mean-revert toward neutral."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 73,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 73,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 76,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 76,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 76,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted evidence is LNG/global-gas and geopolitics heavy; direct Henry Hub microstructure drivers (weather/storage print specifics) are underrepresented in the provided trend set.",
"State_change set as new_bullish using an assumed neutral prior due to missing explicit prior-state memory in provided inputs."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}