Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23 14:55 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-001 Near-term natural gas futures sentiment is biased upward as geopolitical disruption risk lifts LNG/shipping risk-premium and tightness expectations. 64 up accelerating 24h false 61
natural_gas B-002 US LNG export flow narrative (record/strong export activity) reinforces a tighter domestic balance bias over the next 6\u201324 hours. 60 up stable 6h false 61
natural_gas B-003 Counterpressure exists from narratives consistent with softer LNG demand (e.g., reduced Asia LNG imports) and alternative supply routes/pricing (e.g., discounted pipeline gas deals), which can cap upside and raise reversal risk. 44 down stable 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260423T145500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:55:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures sentiment is biased upward as geopolitical disruption risk lifts LNG/shipping risk-premium and tightness expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "US LNG export flow narrative (record/strong export activity) reinforces a tighter domestic balance bias over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "storage_levels"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Counterpressure exists from narratives consistent with softer LNG demand (e.g., reduced Asia LNG imports) and alternative supply routes/pricing (e.g., discounted pipeline gas deals), which can cap upside and raise reversal risk.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002",
 "B-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 5,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h": 2,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Energy-geopolitics driven narratives dominate; rapid update cadence can whipsaw sentiment within hours."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_market_basis_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of evidence is LNG/global-gas and shipping-risk oriented; Henry Hub linkage may be indirect in the 6\u201324h window."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counterevidence_present_recent",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Soft-demand / alternative-supply narratives may cap upside and raise reversal probability."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG/shipping disruption risk headlines persist without offsetting demand-destruction confirmation in the next 6\u201312 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fast-timestamp geopolitical updates arrive (<=2\u20133 hours apart), expect elevated intraday swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If multiple independent updates confirm LNG demand drop / de-escalation, directional score may mean-revert toward neutral."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 73,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 73,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 76,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 76,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 76,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Admitted evidence is LNG/global-gas and geopolitics heavy; direct Henry Hub microstructure drivers (weather/storage print specifics) are underrepresented in the provided trend set.",
 "State_change set as new_bullish using an assumed neutral prior due to missing explicit prior-state memory in provided inputs."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}