• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:01:54Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Lithium pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 24h, led by fresh 'lithium carbonate price surge' and 'spodumene concentrate price surge' signals. 67 up accelerating 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-02 Battery supply-chain narrative is shifting towards tighter/high-grade feedstock (e.g., lithium hydroxide premium / supply-chain shift), supporting a short-term bullish bias in lithium complex sentiment. 61 up stable 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-03 EV adoption / battery-tech newsflow remains supportive enough to maintain a positive lithium-demand backdrop over the next 24h, but it is not a hard price driver in this window. 58 up fading 24h false 55
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_lithium_2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 24h, led by fresh 'lithium carbonate price surge' and 'spodumene concentrate price surge' signals.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Pricing: lithium carbonate surge (risk_anomaly RA-006, Tier-A anchored but broad low-tier propagation)",
 "Pricing: spodumene concentrate surge (risk_anomaly RA-005)",
 "Financial flows: record lithium ETF inflows (trend T-121)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential demand softness / auto sector earnings stress signals (VIP-004, VIP-005) as indirect EV-demand headwind",
 "Data quality risk: low-authority skew across the evidence mix increases whipsaw risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Battery supply-chain narrative is shifting towards tighter/high-grade feedstock (e.g., lithium hydroxide premium / supply-chain shift), supporting a short-term bullish bias in lithium complex sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply-chain / premium signal: lithium hydroxide premium / shift (trend T-018)",
 "Policy/industrial storyline: battery-grade lithium purity milestone (trend T-122)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Regulatory / trade-friction type risks around diversification and restrictions (risk_anomaly RA-009) may cap follow-through",
 "Single-source tail risks inside the corpus (multiple VIP outliers with echo-risk flags)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-03",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "EV adoption / battery-tech newsflow remains supportive enough to maintain a positive lithium-demand backdrop over the next 24h, but it is not a hard price driver in this window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV/battery-tech breadth: multiple EV/battery related trends (e.g., T-006, T-124, T-008) indirectly supportive of lithium demand",
 "ETF/flow signal adds sentiment reinforcement (T-121)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Auto/EV manufacturer earnings stress signals (VIP-004, VIP-005) could cool near-term demand narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-02",
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 3,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 230,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 5,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 1,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "low_authority_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence is Tier-D; conviction is therefore more fragile than the breadth alone implies."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "price_spike_reversal_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Price-surge style signals (carbonate/spodumene) can mean-revert quickly; monitor for fresh opposing prints or cooling demand headlines."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity_pockets",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Some negative/neutral VIP outliers are single-source items; treat as early warnings rather than confirmed counter-thesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh continuation signals on lithium carbonate/spodumene + no material opposing evidence spike in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional 'surge' risk anomalies appear or contradiction rises (new bearish supply/demand headlines within 2h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals that directly negate the price-surge thesis (e.g., confirmed price drop / demand collapse / policy reversal)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If conviction drops below 45 due to contradiction spike or stale suppression."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.097,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.222,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 16,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.813,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 65,
 "acceleration_score": 80,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.077,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -100,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.105,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.059,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.059,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.069,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -45,
 "acceleration_score": -50,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.778,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 40,
 "acceleration_score": 85,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.188,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.105,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.097,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.246,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market constraints enforced.",
 "Directional thesis dominated by fresh price-surge + flow signals; counterevidence present but indirect (auto earnings stress / regulatory friction).",
 "Authority confirmation exists (Tier-A anchors present) but overall corpus skew is heavily Tier-D, increasing fragility and reversal sensitivity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}