- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:01:54Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-01 |
Lithium pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 24h, led by fresh 'lithium carbonate price surge' and 'spodumene concentrate price surge' signals. |
67 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
55 |
| lithium |
B-LI-02 |
Battery supply-chain narrative is shifting towards tighter/high-grade feedstock (e.g., lithium hydroxide premium / supply-chain shift), supporting a short-term bullish bias in lithium complex sentiment. |
61 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| lithium |
B-LI-03 |
EV adoption / battery-tech newsflow remains supportive enough to maintain a positive lithium-demand backdrop over the next 24h, but it is not a hard price driver in this window. |
58 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
55 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_lithium_2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 24h, led by fresh 'lithium carbonate price surge' and 'spodumene concentrate price surge' signals.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Pricing: lithium carbonate surge (risk_anomaly RA-006, Tier-A anchored but broad low-tier propagation)",
"Pricing: spodumene concentrate surge (risk_anomaly RA-005)",
"Financial flows: record lithium ETF inflows (trend T-121)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential demand softness / auto sector earnings stress signals (VIP-004, VIP-005) as indirect EV-demand headwind",
"Data quality risk: low-authority skew across the evidence mix increases whipsaw risk"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Battery supply-chain narrative is shifting towards tighter/high-grade feedstock (e.g., lithium hydroxide premium / supply-chain shift), supporting a short-term bullish bias in lithium complex sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply-chain / premium signal: lithium hydroxide premium / shift (trend T-018)",
"Policy/industrial storyline: battery-grade lithium purity milestone (trend T-122)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Regulatory / trade-friction type risks around diversification and restrictions (risk_anomaly RA-009) may cap follow-through",
"Single-source tail risks inside the corpus (multiple VIP outliers with echo-risk flags)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "EV adoption / battery-tech newsflow remains supportive enough to maintain a positive lithium-demand backdrop over the next 24h, but it is not a hard price driver in this window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV/battery-tech breadth: multiple EV/battery related trends (e.g., T-006, T-124, T-008) indirectly supportive of lithium demand",
"ETF/flow signal adds sentiment reinforcement (T-121)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Auto/EV manufacturer earnings stress signals (VIP-004, VIP-005) could cool near-term demand narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-02",
"B-LI-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 3,
"B": 5,
"C": 12,
"D": 230,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 5,
"stale_24_72h_est": 1,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "low_authority_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence is Tier-D; conviction is therefore more fragile than the breadth alone implies."
},
{
"risk_flag": "price_spike_reversal_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Price-surge style signals (carbonate/spodumene) can mean-revert quickly; monitor for fresh opposing prints or cooling demand headlines."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_sparsity_pockets",
"severity": "low",
"market": "lithium",
"detail": "Some negative/neutral VIP outliers are single-source items; treat as early warnings rather than confirmed counter-thesis."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh continuation signals on lithium carbonate/spodumene + no material opposing evidence spike in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional 'surge' risk anomalies appear or contradiction rises (new bearish supply/demand headlines within 2h)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals that directly negate the price-surge thesis (e.g., confirmed price drop / demand collapse / policy reversal)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If conviction drops below 45 due to contradiction spike or stale suppression."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.097,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.222,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 16,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.813,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 65,
"acceleration_score": 80,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.077,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.105,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.059,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.059,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.069,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -45,
"acceleration_score": -50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.778,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 40,
"acceleration_score": 85,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.188,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.105,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.097,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:01:54Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.246,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market constraints enforced.",
"Directional thesis dominated by fresh price-surge + flow signals; counterevidence present but indirect (auto earnings stress / regulatory friction).",
"Authority confirmation exists (Tier-A anchors present) but overall corpus skew is heavily Tier-D, increasing fragility and reversal sensitivity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}