Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:03:06Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-GOLD-001 | Gold futures have a mild, low-conviction upside bias over the next 6–24h if geopolitical-risk headlines broaden beyond a single seed signal; otherwise the market is likely to remain mixed/rangebound. | 52 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 82 |
| gold | B-GOLD-002 | Absent fresh confirmation from real-rates/USD/ETF/central-bank-flow signals in the admitted corpus, near-term gold direction is best treated as neutral_mixed with elevated fragility (signal can flip quickly on new information). | 62 | flat | stable | 6h | false | 82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_20260423T150306Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:03:06Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures have a mild, low-conviction upside bias over the next 6\u201324h if geopolitical-risk headlines broaden beyond a single seed signal; otherwise the market is likely to remain mixed/rangebound.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk (fresh but thin evidence)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lack_of_fresh_gold_specific_flow_evidence",
"staleness_of_prior_gold-related_items"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Absent fresh confirmation from real-rates/USD/ETF/central-bank-flow signals in the admitted corpus, near-term gold direction is best treated as neutral_mixed with elevated fragility (signal can flip quickly on new information).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_fresh_window",
"stale_context_overhang"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"any_new_multi-source_gold_flow_or_macro_shift_signal"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 0,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 0,
"fresh_24_72h_count": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_count": 3,
"notes": "Gold-mapped evidence in the provided set is predominantly >72h old; current-cycle gold direction is therefore suppressed."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Insufficient fresh (<=72h) gold-mapped evidence to meet directional-conviction gating; defaulting to neutral_mixed."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Most gold-relevant items are from early March 2026; stale-support cannot carry current directional thesis."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several gold-related VIP items are single-source or low-diversity; authority confirmation is low."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while fresh, gold-mapped evidence count in last 72h is below threshold or dominated by single-source items."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to volatility watch if 2+ independent gold-mapped sources appear within 6h pointing to disruption/flows or if contradiction_ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh multi-source confirmation emerges for safe-haven bid (geopolitical escalation) and/or gold-specific flow support (ETF/central bank/physical demand proxies) within 24h."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=6h) opposing macro impulse enters the corpus (e.g., strong USD/real-rate upshift signals) while gold-mapped evidence remains thin, treat as potential rapid sentiment flip."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 12,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:03:06Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:03:06Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Gold market mapping relied primarily on gold/GLD-explicit VIP outliers; broad geopolitical trends were not force-mapped to gold under canonical alias rules.",
"Gold-mapped evidence is largely stale (>72h), so directional call is suppressed to neutral_mixed despite background geopolitical narrative volume.",
"No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change computed with unknown prior baseline => unchanged."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}