Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T14:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption narrative remains net supportive for higher coffee futures pricing pressure. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
54 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Crop/disease and farm-cost/labour constraint themes continue to bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h window (risk-premium support). |
64 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
54 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Improving harvest volume / retail price-cut narratives can cap rallies and raise the odds of a near-term pullback if repeated by higher-quality sources. |
45 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260423T143000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption narrative remains net supportive for higher coffee futures pricing pressure.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping/freight disruption risk",
"trade-flow friction headlines",
"inventory/delivery timeline uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Crop/disease and farm-cost/labour constraint themes continue to bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h window (risk-premium support).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"crop condition / disease risk (plant health)",
"labour availability / cost pressure",
"input-cost pressure (broad ag context)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Improving harvest volume / retail price-cut narratives can cap rallies and raise the odds of a near-term pullback if repeated by higher-quality sources.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"harvest volume improvement / supply relief narrative",
"downstream retail price reductions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 48,
"B": 6,
"C": 4,
"D": 154,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signal_count_24h": 7,
"stale_signal_count_gt72h": 5,
"freshest_signal_utc": "2026-04-23T14:11:54Z",
"oldest_admitted_signal_utc": "2026-04-13T14:50:17Z"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supply/cost narratives are >72h old; they still support the thesis but are down-weighted, capping conviction."
},
{
"flag": "counter_signal_supply_relief",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A supply-relief / price-reduction narrative exists (harvest volume / downstream price cuts). If repeated by higher-tier sources within the next cycle, reversal risk increases."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Coffee price drivers are split between risk-premium (logistics/disease) and relief (harvest/retail pricing), increasing sensitivity to new headlines."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) supply-disruption/crop-risk items persist and no additional credible harvest-relief evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh items (<=24h) corroborate harvest volume improvement / retail price reductions, raising counterevidence mass."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/freight disruption headlines intensify with conflicting supply-relief updates (contradiction ratio rising)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 5,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields were provided in input; direction/momentum inferred from recency proxies, driver semantics, and source-tier mix.",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted as new_bullish for first-cycle classification.",
"Counter-signal (harvest/retail price reduction narrative) is not in the last-24h timeseries window, but is included in current-state reversal risk."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}