Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23T14:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption narrative remains net supportive for higher coffee futures pricing pressure. 62 up accelerating 6h false 54
coffee B-coffee-002 Crop/disease and farm-cost/labour constraint themes continue to bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h window (risk-premium support). 64 up stable 24h false 54
coffee B-coffee-003 Improving harvest volume / retail price-cut narratives can cap rallies and raise the odds of a near-term pullback if repeated by higher-quality sources. 45 down fading 24h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260423T143000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption narrative remains net supportive for higher coffee futures pricing pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping/freight disruption risk",
 "trade-flow friction headlines",
 "inventory/delivery timeline uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Crop/disease and farm-cost/labour constraint themes continue to bias coffee futures upward over the next 24h window (risk-premium support).",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "crop condition / disease risk (plant health)",
 "labour availability / cost pressure",
 "input-cost pressure (broad ag context)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Improving harvest volume / retail price-cut narratives can cap rallies and raise the odds of a near-term pullback if repeated by higher-quality sources.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "harvest volume improvement / supply relief narrative",
 "downstream retail price reductions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 48,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 154,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signal_count_24h": 7,
 "stale_signal_count_gt72h": 5,
 "freshest_signal_utc": "2026-04-23T14:11:54Z",
 "oldest_admitted_signal_utc": "2026-04-13T14:50:17Z"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supply/cost narratives are >72h old; they still support the thesis but are down-weighted, capping conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "counter_signal_supply_relief",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A supply-relief / price-reduction narrative exists (harvest volume / downstream price cuts). If repeated by higher-tier sources within the next cycle, reversal risk increases."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Coffee price drivers are split between risk-premium (logistics/disease) and relief (harvest/retail pricing), increasing sensitivity to new headlines."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=24h) supply-disruption/crop-risk items persist and no additional credible harvest-relief evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh items (<=24h) corroborate harvest volume improvement / retail price reductions, raising counterevidence mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/freight disruption headlines intensify with conflicting supply-relief updates (contradiction ratio rising)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 5,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields were provided in input; direction/momentum inferred from recency proxies, driver semantics, and source-tier mix.",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted as new_bullish for first-cycle classification.",
 "Counter-signal (harvest/retail price reduction narrative) is not in the last-24h timeseries window, but is included in current-state reversal risk."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}