Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: rf_event_driven_geopolitical
- generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term crude oil (Brent) pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics/shipping disruption risk supports a risk premium. | 68 | up | fading | 6h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Over the next 24h, crude oil retains a positive bias but is highly event-driven; de-escalation or policy supply offsets could compress the risk premium quickly. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snapshot-20260423T150000Z-6B-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude oil (Brent) pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics/shipping disruption risk supports a risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Hormuz/Red Sea-style maritime disruption and security escalation headlines",
"Shipping/insurance/friction costs and logistics rerouting risk",
"Refinery/production disruption narratives (incl. Russia-related disruption framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"US sanctions relief / exemptions signals that may partially cushion supply constraints"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, crude oil retains a positive bias but is highly event-driven; de-escalation or policy supply offsets could compress the risk premium quickly.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent multi-source geopolitical risk framing",
"Follow-through risk from shipping disruption narratives",
"Market sensitivity to official policy offsets (sanctions exemptions/relief)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply-offset policy signals (sanctions relief/exemptions) increasing counterpressure vs upside"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 3,
"B": 15,
"C": 6,
"D": 269,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count_est": 255,
"fresh_6_24h_count_est": 38,
"stale_gt_24h_count_est": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "rf_event_driven_geopolitical",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Direction is dominated by fast-moving geopolitical/maritime disruption headlines; reversal risk rises on credible de-escalation."
},
{
"flag_id": "rf_low_authority_mix",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad but skewed toward lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"flag_id": "rf_policy_offset_counterpressure",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Sanctions relief/exemption narratives act as embedded counterpressure that can cap upside or accelerate reversals."
},
{
"flag_id": "rf_spike_and_fade_profile",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Multiple admitted signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles, consistent with weakening momentum after an initial shock."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Continued multi-source confirmation of sustained disruption risk (shipping/insurance/friction) without credible reopening/de-escalation signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Headline cadence remains rapid and mixed policy responses appear (sanctions relief, exemptions, security actions)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Credible, fresh de-escalation or confirmed reopening/normalisation of key chokepoints OR strong supply-offset policy actions gain traction."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional mass collapses and net signed score returns inside the neutral band (|score| < 20) with rising contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 60,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 78,
"bullish_pressure_score": 92,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 78,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 45,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 82,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 40,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 55,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 35,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"Counterpressure acknowledged from sanctions relief/exemption signals; no explicit fresh bearish reversal cluster detected in admitted corpus.",
"Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish for state-machine continuity."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}