Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: rf_event_driven_geopolitical
  • generated_at: 2026-04-23T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term crude oil (Brent) pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics/shipping disruption risk supports a risk premium. 68 up fading 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-002 Over the next 24h, crude oil retains a positive bias but is highly event-driven; de-escalation or policy supply offsets could compress the risk premium quickly. 60 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snapshot-20260423T150000Z-6B-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude oil (Brent) pricing bias remains upward as geopolitics/shipping disruption risk supports a risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Hormuz/Red Sea-style maritime disruption and security escalation headlines",
 "Shipping/insurance/friction costs and logistics rerouting risk",
 "Refinery/production disruption narratives (incl. Russia-related disruption framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "US sanctions relief / exemptions signals that may partially cushion supply constraints"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, crude oil retains a positive bias but is highly event-driven; de-escalation or policy supply offsets could compress the risk premium quickly.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Persistent multi-source geopolitical risk framing",
 "Follow-through risk from shipping disruption narratives",
 "Market sensitivity to official policy offsets (sanctions exemptions/relief)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Supply-offset policy signals (sanctions relief/exemptions) increasing counterpressure vs upside"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 3,
 "B": 15,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 269,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count_est": 255,
 "fresh_6_24h_count_est": 38,
 "stale_gt_24h_count_est": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "rf_event_driven_geopolitical",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Direction is dominated by fast-moving geopolitical/maritime disruption headlines; reversal risk rises on credible de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "rf_low_authority_mix",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad but skewed toward lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "rf_policy_offset_counterpressure",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Sanctions relief/exemption narratives act as embedded counterpressure that can cap upside or accelerate reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "rf_spike_and_fade_profile",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Multiple admitted signals show spike-and-fade temporal profiles, consistent with weakening momentum after an initial shock."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Continued multi-source confirmation of sustained disruption risk (shipping/insurance/friction) without credible reopening/de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Headline cadence remains rapid and mixed policy responses appear (sanctions relief, exemptions, security actions)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Credible, fresh de-escalation or confirmed reopening/normalisation of key chokepoints OR strong supply-offset policy actions gain traction."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional mass collapses and net signed score returns inside the neutral band (|score| < 20) with rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 18,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 30,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 60,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 78,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 78,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": -22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 45,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 82,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 40,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 55,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 35,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 78,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "Counterpressure acknowledged from sanctions relief/exemption signals; no explicit fresh bearish reversal cluster detected in admitted corpus.",
 "Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish for state-machine continuity."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}