Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_churn_geopolitical (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Uranium futures exhibit a modest upward bias (next 24h), supported by energy-security framing and supply-chain tightening narratives (e.g., enriched-uranium restrictions / strategic reserve planning) plus ongoing nuclear build/SMR adoption themes. 58% up accelerating 24h false 56
uranium B-UR-002 Near-term volatility is elevated (next 6–24h) because the dominant information flow is geopolitical/regulatory and can flip quickly without direct commodity-market confirmation. 66% mixed stable 6h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures exhibit a modest upward bias (next 24h), supported by energy-security framing and supply-chain tightening narratives (e.g., enriched-uranium restrictions / strategic reserve planning) plus ongoing nuclear build/SMR adoption themes.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "energy_security",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/approval delays and subsidy pushback narratives (demand-policy drag)",
 "High headline churn around Iran-related nuclear diplomacy increasing two-way risk"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term volatility is elevated (next 6\u201324h) because the dominant information flow is geopolitical/regulatory and can flip quickly without direct commodity-market confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "regulatory_headline_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If follow-on reporting reduces contradiction and shifts discourse to concrete contracting/offtake signals, volatility may compress"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 467,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 22,
 "fresh_6_24h": 48,
 "fresh_24_72h": 30,
 "stale_72h_plus": 10
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_churn_geopolitical",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Large share of admitted signals are geopolitics/regulatory narratives; can reverse quickly without commodity-specific confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_share_overhang",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence breadth is high but authority mix is heavily Tier-D weighted; conviction relies on mass-consensus rather than institutional confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_mapping_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Several drivers are nuclear-policy / diplomacy adjacent and may not translate cleanly into U3O8 futures direction over short horizons."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score persists while contradiction ratio continues to fall (i.e., bullish pressure stays dominant for 2+ consecutive hours)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) Iran/regulatory headline cluster increases contradiction ratio back above ~0.50 or flips net sentiment negative in 2 consecutive buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score drops below +10 with rising contradiction and fresh counter-evidence count increasing (2+ independent opposing signals within 6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains rangebound (|directional_score_signed| < 20) for 6+ hours with no fresh catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 9,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 26,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior state not provided; state_change treated as transition from unknown_prior baseline to current state.",
 "Directional mapping emphasises uranium price sensitivity to supply-chain tightening and energy-security adoption narratives; some admitted signals are diplomacy/policy-adjacent and raise volatility more than directional certainty."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}