• subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B1 Over the next 24h, uranium futures have an upward bias as nuclear build-out/regulatory support signals (including data-centre power narratives and permitting/reform themes) stay dominant and fresh. 64 up accelerating 24h false 55
uranium B2 Over the next 6h, a risk-premium/volatility bid remains present (geopolitical and nuclear-diplomacy headlines), skewing outcomes modestly upward rather than cleanly directional. 58 up stable 6h false 55
uranium B3 Within 24h, policy-cost backlash / subsidy and governance critiques can intermittently cap upside and create pullback risk despite the broader pro-nuclear narrative. 38 down stable 24h false 55
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_20260422T070000Z_uranium_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures have an upward bias as nuclear build-out/regulatory support signals (including data-centre power narratives and permitting/reform themes) stay dominant and fresh.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security",
 "uranium_supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, a risk-premium/volatility bid remains present (geopolitical and nuclear-diplomacy headlines), skewing outcomes modestly upward rather than cleanly directional.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Within 24h, policy-cost backlash / subsidy and governance critiques can intermittently cap upside and create pullback risk despite the broader pro-nuclear narrative.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "regulatory_risk",
 "political_backlash"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 15,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 210,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_items": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_items": 10,
 "stale_24_72h_items": 6,
 "stale_gt_72h_items": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Nuclear-diplomacy/geopolitical storylines are prominent and can flip quickly, increasing reversal risk despite bullish net mass."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad, but the corpus authority mix is heavily Tier-D even when anchored by some Tier-A items; raises fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_noise_present",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source and should not be treated as durable confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if directional_state=bullish AND next-cycle contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.35 with fresh confirming evidence."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears from >=2 independent sources OR contradiction_ratio spikes materially."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Assume elevated volatility while geopolitical/nuclear-diplomacy themes remain in the most recent 6h window."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if evidence flow degrades below threshold or thesis_kill_switch=true (not currently)."
 },
 {
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if late_breaking_invalidation triggers and fragility rises >= 70."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
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 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
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 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
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 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
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 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 32,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit).",
 "No explicit counter-trend contradictions were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal risk is driven primarily by event-driven headline sensitivity rather than internal contradiction.",
 "State-change derived without prior state memory; treated as neutral->bullish for labeling."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}