- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-22 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B1 |
Over the next 24h, uranium futures have an upward bias as nuclear build-out/regulatory support signals (including data-centre power narratives and permitting/reform themes) stay dominant and fresh. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B2 |
Over the next 6h, a risk-premium/volatility bid remains present (geopolitical and nuclear-diplomacy headlines), skewing outcomes modestly upward rather than cleanly directional. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
55 |
| uranium |
B3 |
Within 24h, policy-cost backlash / subsidy and governance critiques can intermittently cap upside and create pullback risk despite the broader pro-nuclear narrative. |
38 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_20260422T070000Z_uranium_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures have an upward bias as nuclear build-out/regulatory support signals (including data-centre power narratives and permitting/reform themes) stay dominant and fresh.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security",
"uranium_supply_contracting"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, a risk-premium/volatility bid remains present (geopolitical and nuclear-diplomacy headlines), skewing outcomes modestly upward rather than cleanly directional.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Within 24h, policy-cost backlash / subsidy and governance critiques can intermittently cap upside and create pullback risk despite the broader pro-nuclear narrative.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"regulatory_risk",
"political_backlash"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 15,
"C": 12,
"D": 210,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_items": 4,
"fresh_6_24h_items": 10,
"stale_24_72h_items": 6,
"stale_gt_72h_items": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Nuclear-diplomacy/geopolitical storylines are prominent and can flip quickly, increasing reversal risk despite bullish net mass."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_mix_overhang",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional mass is broad, but the corpus authority mix is heavily Tier-D even when anchored by some Tier-A items; raises fragility."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_noise_present",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source and should not be treated as durable confirmation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain if directional_state=bullish AND next-cycle contradiction_ratio stays <= 0.35 with fresh confirming evidence."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence appears from >=2 independent sources OR contradiction_ratio spikes materially."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Assume elevated volatility while geopolitical/nuclear-diplomacy themes remain in the most recent 6h window."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if evidence flow degrades below threshold or thesis_kill_switch=true (not currently)."
},
{
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if late_breaking_invalidation triggers and fragility rises >= 70."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"fragility_score_0_100": 32,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit).",
"No explicit counter-trend contradictions were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal risk is driven primarily by event-driven headline sensitivity rather than internal contradiction.",
"State-change derived without prior state memory; treated as neutral->bullish for labeling."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}