Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T23:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-1 Near-term lithium price sentiment is tilted upward as EV/battery ecosystem activity and investment interest remain supportive over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
lithium B-lithium-2 Supply-side friction risk remains present (permits/local opposition/regulatory friction), supporting an upside skew over the next 6–24h if echoed by additional sources. 56 up stable 24h false 48
lithium B-lithium-3 Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial: substitution tech + demand-slowdown policy chatter can quickly neutralise the current bullish tilt within the next 6h. 44 mixed accelerating 6h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260422T231000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T23:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium price sentiment is tilted upward as EV/battery ecosystem activity and investment interest remain supportive over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Record/strong lithium-theme fund/ETF flow chatter in the corpus",
 "High volume of EV/battery tech and infrastructure expansion signals mapped to lithium demand narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Substitution narrative (sodium-ion commercialization) reducing forward lithium intensity",
 "Policy/tax uncertainty signals that can slow EV purchase cadence"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side friction risk remains present (permits/local opposition/regulatory friction), supporting an upside skew over the next 6\u201324h if echoed by additional sources.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Project-level opposition/friction headlines around lithium extraction projects",
 "Mining governance/regulatory risk items in the stream"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Single-source 'new resource discovery' style signals implying future supply expansion"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial: substitution tech + demand-slowdown policy chatter can quickly neutralise the current bullish tilt within the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sodium-ion mass-production headlines (substitution pressure)",
 "EV tax/speculation or regulatory uncertainty items affecting near-term demand expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Broad positive EV/battery activity flow and investment interest signals"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-1",
 "B-lithium-2",
 "B-lithium-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 2,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 6,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h": 9,
 "stale_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_skew",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting items are Tier-D / lower-authority domains; treat conviction as capped vs mass-only reading."
 },
 {
 "flag": "substitution_pressure",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Sodium-ion commercialization headlines create genuine counter-pressure to lithium demand narratives."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_demand_softness",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Some regulatory/tax uncertainty items could slow EV purchase cadence and reduce near-term demand optimism."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Bullish demand/investment flow is coexisting with discrete bearish items (substitution + demand drag), raising reversal risk despite bullish tilt."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure remains dominant in the next 6h buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= ~0.25."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh (<2h) items reinforce substitution/demand-slowdown and the net directional_score_signed falls below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.35 with alternating bullish/bearish bucket dominance."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops sharply while counterevidence persists (data sparsity + mixed signals)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -13,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -21,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 25,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used available proxy fields (velocity_hint, recency proxies, authority tiers, evidence breadth) for synthesis.",
 "No prior market_state_table provided; state_change assumes neutral baseline -> current classification."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}