Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_skew (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-1 | Near-term lithium price sentiment is tilted upward as EV/battery ecosystem activity and investment interest remain supportive over the next 24h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-lithium-2 | Supply-side friction risk remains present (permits/local opposition/regulatory friction), supporting an upside skew over the next 6–24h if echoed by additional sources. | 56 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-lithium-3 | Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial: substitution tech + demand-slowdown policy chatter can quickly neutralise the current bullish tilt within the next 6h. | 44 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260422T231000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T23:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium price sentiment is tilted upward as EV/battery ecosystem activity and investment interest remain supportive over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Record/strong lithium-theme fund/ETF flow chatter in the corpus",
"High volume of EV/battery tech and infrastructure expansion signals mapped to lithium demand narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Substitution narrative (sodium-ion commercialization) reducing forward lithium intensity",
"Policy/tax uncertainty signals that can slow EV purchase cadence"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side friction risk remains present (permits/local opposition/regulatory friction), supporting an upside skew over the next 6\u201324h if echoed by additional sources.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Project-level opposition/friction headlines around lithium extraction projects",
"Mining governance/regulatory risk items in the stream"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Single-source 'new resource discovery' style signals implying future supply expansion"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is non-trivial: substitution tech + demand-slowdown policy chatter can quickly neutralise the current bullish tilt within the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Sodium-ion mass-production headlines (substitution pressure)",
"EV tax/speculation or regulatory uncertainty items affecting near-term demand expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad positive EV/battery activity flow and investment interest signals"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-1",
"B-lithium-2",
"B-lithium-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 2,
"B": 4,
"C": 2,
"D": 6,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 4,
"fresh_6_24h": 9,
"stale_24_72h": 2,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "low_authority_skew",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting items are Tier-D / lower-authority domains; treat conviction as capped vs mass-only reading."
},
{
"flag": "substitution_pressure",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Sodium-ion commercialization headlines create genuine counter-pressure to lithium demand narratives."
},
{
"flag": "policy_demand_softness",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Some regulatory/tax uncertainty items could slow EV purchase cadence and reduce near-term demand optimism."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Bullish demand/investment flow is coexisting with discrete bearish items (substitution + demand drag), raising reversal risk despite bullish tilt."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure remains dominant in the next 6h buckets while contradiction_ratio stays <= ~0.25."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If two or more independent fresh (<2h) items reinforce substitution/demand-slowdown and the net directional_score_signed falls below +20."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.35 with alternating bullish/bearish bucket dominance."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops sharply while counterevidence persists (data sparsity + mixed signals)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -21,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 25,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used available proxy fields (velocity_hint, recency proxies, authority tiers, evidence breadth) for synthesis.",
"No prior market_state_table provided; state_change assumes neutral baseline -> current classification."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}