Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: rf_low_authority_skew
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium LITH-B1 Near-term lithium chemicals (esp. hydroxide) pricing is biased upward as reported premiums/price tightness narratives dominate recent coverage. 65 up accelerating 6h false 55
lithium LITH-B2 Supply-chain tightening narratives (offtake agreements, localisation of refining, and project frictions/opposition) support an upward-to-stable price bias over the next day. 60 up stable 24h false 55
lithium LITH-B3 Demand-side uncertainty (EV sales softness / subsidy-credit transitions) increases downside tail risk and can blunt follow-through even if supply-side narratives remain constructive. 45 down stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-lithium-20260422T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "LITH-B1", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium chemicals (esp. hydroxide) pricing is biased upward as reported premiums/price tightness narratives dominate recent coverage.", "probability_pct": 65, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Repeated 'rising lithium hydroxide premiums' theme with high recency-weighted heat", "Broad cross-source repetition across battery materials discourse" ], "contradicted_by": [ "EV demand softening/credit-expiration narratives (potential demand-side cap)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "LITH-B2", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-chain tightening narratives (offtake agreements, localisation of refining, and project frictions/opposition) support an upward-to-stable price bias over the next day.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Offtake/cathode supply-chain securing and localisation signalling stronger procurement urgency", "Local opposition / protest risk framing around extraction projects (supply friction)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Refining capacity expansion narratives could be interpreted as future supply relief", "Macro/EV sales divergence risk items" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "LITH-B3", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Demand-side uncertainty (EV sales softness / subsidy-credit transitions) increases downside tail risk and can blunt follow-through even if supply-side narratives remain constructive.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV sales divergence and model/production-pause style risk anomalies", "Tax-credit / incentive transition narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Upward pricing/premium narratives", "Supply friction signals" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "LITH-B1", "LITH-B2", "LITH-B3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 5, "B": 23, "C": 52, "D": 508, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signal_items_est": 4, "fresh_6_24h_signal_items_est": 8, "older_24_72h_signal_items_est": 0, "stale_gt_72h_signal_items_est": 0, "note": "Estimates are based on newest timestamps embedded in admitted trend evidence bundles; overlaps across trends likely." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "rf_low_authority_skew", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "summary": "Directional mass is broad but the evidence mix skews heavily to lower-tier sources; treat conviction as moderate rather than high." }, { "flag_id": "rf_demand_side_counterpressure", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "summary": "Fresh EV-demand softness / incentive-transition narratives create genuine counterpressure, raising reversal risk to medium." }, { "flag_id": "rf_narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "summary": "Mixed supply-tightening vs future-supply-relief narratives (refining expansion) can cause short-horizon sentiment whipsaws." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If premiums/tightness narratives remain dominant across the next 6\u201324h buckets without a rise in fresh demand-negative evidence." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If EV-demand softness narratives accelerate (2+ independent fresh signals within ~6h) while premium/tightness signals fade." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises materially (more mixed signals in the most recent buckets) while evidence density remains high." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If net sentiment returns to neutral band (directional_score_signed between -20 and +20) for 3+ consecutive hourly buckets." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 8, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: lithium.", "Most admitted signals are industry/chain narratives; price-direction inference is therefore moderate-conviction despite broad volume.", "No explicit contradiction record-ids were provided in admitted trends; counterpressure was inferred from mixed demand-side risk anomalies vs supply/premium narratives.", "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no clearly opposing, multi-source <=2h cluster present in the admitted corpus).", "state_change=new_bullish assumes unknown prior state treated as neutral baseline for state machine classification." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }