Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T22:35:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as supply-tightening narratives (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid availability, geopolitical disruption risk, mine-side constraints) dominate the recent signal mix. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
49 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Copper demand narratives (infrastructure build-out, EV/charging build and broader energy-transition capex) remain supportive, sustaining a positive tone into the next 6h. |
60 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
49 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260422-223500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T22:35:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as supply-tightening narratives (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid availability, geopolitical disruption risk, mine-side constraints) dominate the recent signal mix.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"trade_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China industrial activity softness proxies (e.g., steel output decline signals) can offset supply-tightening impact if echoed by fresher macro prints."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper demand narratives (infrastructure build-out, EV/charging build and broader energy-transition capex) remain supportive, sustaining a positive tone into the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"energy_transition_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh China-growth disappointment or stronger-than-expected evidence of manufacturing slowdown would reduce near-term upside bias."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 30,
"B": 3,
"C": 7,
"D": 260,
"U": 0,
"approximate": true
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_share_est_0_24h": 0.45,
"stale_share_est_gt_24h": 0.55,
"basis": "trend_evidence_recency_proxy_spans_and_latest_timestamps"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional mass is broad, but a high share of contributing items are lower-tier sources; treat conviction as more fragile than breadth alone suggests."
},
{
"flag": "china_macro_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "China policy/industrial activity signals appear in multiple admitted narratives; fresh negative China macro prints could create a fast sentiment wobble."
},
{
"flag": "evidence_overlap_risk",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Multiple trends reference overlapping evidence pools; breadth may be less independent than raw counts imply."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay alert for continuation of fresh supply-tightening headlines (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid constraints, disruption risks) without matching fresh demand-negative macro confirmation."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, independent China-demand negative evidence accelerates (e.g., industrial output/PMI-related signals) while supply-tightening headlines fade, upgrade to reversal_watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior state table); state_change computed against unknown_prior and treated as a neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is based on inferred counterevidence proxies only (e.g., demand-weakness narratives), not a formal contradiction set.",
"Timeseries bucket values are conservatively shaped using available recency anchors (latest timestamps) rather than full per-record timestamp distributions (truncated upstream payload)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}