Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: authority_skew_low_tier
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T22:35:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as supply-tightening narratives (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid availability, geopolitical disruption risk, mine-side constraints) dominate the recent signal mix. 64 up accelerating 24h false 49
copper B-copper-002 Copper demand narratives (infrastructure build-out, EV/charging build and broader energy-transition capex) remain supportive, sustaining a positive tone into the next 6h. 60 up stable 6h false 49

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260422-223500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T22:35:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as supply-tightening narratives (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid availability, geopolitical disruption risk, mine-side constraints) dominate the recent signal mix.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "trade_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "China industrial activity softness proxies (e.g., steel output decline signals) can offset supply-tightening impact if echoed by fresher macro prints."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper demand narratives (infrastructure build-out, EV/charging build and broader energy-transition capex) remain supportive, sustaining a positive tone into the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any fresh China-growth disappointment or stronger-than-expected evidence of manufacturing slowdown would reduce near-term upside bias."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 30,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 260,
 "U": 0,
 "approximate": true
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_share_est_0_24h": 0.45,
 "stale_share_est_gt_24h": 0.55,
 "basis": "trend_evidence_recency_proxy_spans_and_latest_timestamps"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Directional mass is broad, but a high share of contributing items are lower-tier sources; treat conviction as more fragile than breadth alone suggests."
 },
 {
 "flag": "china_macro_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "China policy/industrial activity signals appear in multiple admitted narratives; fresh negative China macro prints could create a fast sentiment wobble."
 },
 {
 "flag": "evidence_overlap_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Multiple trends reference overlapping evidence pools; breadth may be less independent than raw counts imply."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay alert for continuation of fresh supply-tightening headlines (processing inputs/sulphuric-acid constraints, disruption risks) without matching fresh demand-negative macro confirmation."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, independent China-demand negative evidence accelerates (e.g., industrial output/PMI-related signals) while supply-tightening headlines fade, upgrade to reversal_watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior state table); state_change computed against unknown_prior and treated as a neutral baseline -> new_bullish.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided; reversal risk is based on inferred counterevidence proxies only (e.g., demand-weakness narratives), not a formal contradiction set.",
 "Timeseries bucket values are conservatively shaped using available recency anchors (latest timestamps) rather than full per-record timestamp distributions (truncated upstream payload)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}