Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T06:22:38Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-6h-001 |
Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment remains biased upward, supported by energy-transition/industrial buildout narratives and supply-chain/security framing, but capped by intermittent China industrial-softness signals. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
B-copper-24h-001 |
Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains moderately bullish but more fragile, with a higher chance of pullback if China-demand weakness narratives gain fresh traction or if supply-expansion headlines cluster. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-20260422T062238Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T06:22:38Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment remains biased upward, supported by energy-transition/industrial buildout narratives and supply-chain/security framing, but capped by intermittent China industrial-softness signals.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"infrastructure_development",
"supply_chain_security / industrial security regulation framing",
"market-structure / technical bullish pattern chatter"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China industrial activity softness proxies (e.g., steel output decline framing)",
"mine supply expansion headlines (capacity additions)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains moderately bullish but more fragile, with a higher chance of pullback if China-demand weakness narratives gain fresh traction or if supply-expansion headlines cluster.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"broad multi-source reinforcement of copper-positive narratives (energy transition, infrastructure, supply constraints)",
"policy/trade/supply-chain security discourse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"China macro/industrial demand softness threads",
"incremental supply expansion narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-6h-001",
"B-copper-24h-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 3,
"C": 6,
"D": 120,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 7,
"fresh_24_72h_est": 3,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 5
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"detail": "Bullish demand/energy-transition + supply-security framing coexists with intermittent China industrial-softness and supply-expansion narratives; increases short-horizon swing risk."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"detail": "Not a hard spike in the provided corpus metadata, but mixed driver set implies moderate internal contradiction risk versus a single-catalyst trend."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with continued fresh multi-source reinforcement (updates clustered in the most recent 6h bucket window)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) demand-weakness / risk-off / supply-expansion items appear and directional score falls back toward neutral (|score| < 20)."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 while fresh evidence remains elevated (news clustering without consensus)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using unknown_prior -> treated as new_bullish for a non-neutral current state.",
"Authority tier counts are approximate/non-deduped aggregates across admitted trend bundles; used directionally only.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were supplied; counterevidence scoring includes demand-softness and supply-expansion themes present in the admitted trend labels."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}