Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-22T06:22:38Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-6h-001 Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment remains biased upward, supported by energy-transition/industrial buildout narratives and supply-chain/security framing, but capped by intermittent China industrial-softness signals. 62 up accelerating 6h false 42
copper B-copper-24h-001 Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains moderately bullish but more fragile, with a higher chance of pullback if China-demand weakness narratives gain fresh traction or if supply-expansion headlines cluster. 58 up stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-copper-20260422T062238Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T06:22:38Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment remains biased upward, supported by energy-transition/industrial buildout narratives and supply-chain/security framing, but capped by intermittent China industrial-softness signals.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "infrastructure_development",
 "supply_chain_security / industrial security regulation framing",
 "market-structure / technical bullish pattern chatter"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "China industrial activity softness proxies (e.g., steel output decline framing)",
 "mine supply expansion headlines (capacity additions)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains moderately bullish but more fragile, with a higher chance of pullback if China-demand weakness narratives gain fresh traction or if supply-expansion headlines cluster.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "broad multi-source reinforcement of copper-positive narratives (energy transition, infrastructure, supply constraints)",
 "policy/trade/supply-chain security discourse"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "China macro/industrial demand softness threads",
 "incremental supply expansion narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-6h-001",
 "B-copper-24h-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 120,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 9,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 7,
 "fresh_24_72h_est": 3,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 5
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "detail": "Bullish demand/energy-transition + supply-security framing coexists with intermittent China industrial-softness and supply-expansion narratives; increases short-horizon swing risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "detail": "Not a hard spike in the provided corpus metadata, but mixed driver set implies moderate internal contradiction risk versus a single-catalyst trend."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with continued fresh multi-source reinforcement (updates clustered in the most recent 6h bucket window)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) demand-weakness / risk-off / supply-expansion items appear and directional score falls back toward neutral (|score| < 20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 while fresh evidence remains elevated (news clustering without consensus)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed using unknown_prior -> treated as new_bullish for a non-neutral current state.",
 "Authority tier counts are approximate/non-deduped aggregates across admitted trend bundles; used directionally only.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were supplied; counterevidence scoring includes demand-softness and supply-expansion themes present in the admitted trend labels."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}