Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B1_crude_oil_up_6h | Brent-linked futures face near-term upside pressure as geopolitical disruption risk dominates the news cycle and tightness narratives drive price. | 68 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 63 |
| crude_oil | B1_crude_oil_up_24h | Over 24h the crude complex likely remains bid, with elevated headline-driven volatility risk; supply/route disruption remains dominant. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
| crude_oil | B2_crude_oil_volatility_24h | Headline volatility and reversal risk are elevated: de-escalation or credible policy offsets could produce sharp pullbacks despite risk premium. | 70 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 63 |
| crude_oil | B3_crude_oil_down_tail_24h | Non-trivial downside tail over 24h if demand-destruction framing or policy/waiver measures credibly damp immediate supply shock impacts. | 34 | down | fading | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap-20260422T230000Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1_crude_oil_up_6h", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Brent-linked crude oil futures face near-term upside pressure as geopolitical disruption risk (Iran / Strait of Hormuz / IRGC-linked flow risk) dominates the latest news cycle and tightness narratives remain the focal driver.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "opec_supply_policy", "inventory_storage", "refining_constraints" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Policy/waiver narratives framed as limiting a price spike", "Demand-destruction / recession-risk framing in some coverage" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B1_crude_oil_up_24h", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the crude complex likely remains bid, but with materially elevated headline-driven volatility risk; the dominant driver is still perceived supply/route disruption risk.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "macro_demand", "inventory_storage" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Demand-destruction narratives and recession-risk framing", "Policy signals framed as preventing an immediate spike" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2_crude_oil_volatility_24h", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Headline volatility and reversal risk are elevated: any fast de-escalation / transit-normalisation headlines or credible policy offsets could produce sharp pullbacks even if the broader risk premium remains.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_disruption", "macro_demand", "inventory_storage", "national_oil_companies" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3_crude_oil_down_tail_24h", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "There is a non-trivial downside tail over 24 hours if demand-destruction framing gains traction and/or if policy/waiver measures credibly dampen immediate supply shock impacts.", "probability_pct": 34, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro_demand", "policy_offset_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Broad current disruption-risk narrative mass (multiple independent signals)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "high", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 85, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1_crude_oil_up_6h", "B1_crude_oil_up_24h", "B2_crude_oil_volatility_24h", "B3_crude_oil_down_tail_24h" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 2, "B": 6, "C": 3, "D": 120, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_signals_0_6h": 7, "fresh_signals_6_24h": 12, "stale_signals_gt_24h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "high", "rationale": "Dominant driver is geopolitical disruption risk; such narratives can flip quickly on de-escalation / transit / policy headlines." }, { "flag": "low_authority_mass_skew", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Directional mass is broad but authority mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources across many admitted items." }, { "flag": "policy_offset_counterevidence", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Admitted corpus includes policy/waiver framing that can cap immediate upside and raise reversal probability without fully negating the disruption premium." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If additional independent confirmation of sustained flow disruption / transit constraints appears within the next 6 hours without offsetting policy relief headlines." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If rapid-fire headlines increase (shipping, sanctions, transit security), expect wider intraday swings and faster signal reversals." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation / reopening / verified flow normalisation headlines emerge, or if policy measures are framed as structurally offsetting near-term tightness." }, { "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If counterevidence clusters (2+ independent opposing signals inside a 2h window) while the directional score rolls over sharply." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "crude_oil" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 82, "bullish_pressure_score": 92, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 82, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 78, "bullish_pressure_score": 89, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 78, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 76, "bullish_pressure_score": 86, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 76, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 74, "bullish_pressure_score": 84, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 74, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 73, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 73, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 82, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid inventing a transition.", "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal risk elevated primarily due to headline-driven regime fragility rather than measured contradiction spikes.", "Timeseries bucket evidence counts are approximated from admitted signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk objects) rather than full per-record physics (not available in this gated payload)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }