Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-22T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-001 | Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains elevated due to Iran/Hormuz disruption narratives, supporting higher futures pricing over the next 6–24h. | 66 | up | fading | 6h | false | 72 |
| crude_oil | B-CRUDE-002 | Supply-side offset signals (output/exports increase narratives and/or rerouting/bypass capability) can cap upside and increase downside whipsaw risk within 24h. | 44 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CRUDE_OIL-2026-04-22T12:00:00Z-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term Brent crude risk premium remains elevated due to Iran/Hormuz disruption narratives, supporting higher futures pricing over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / shipping security risk in/around Strait of Hormuz",
"Sanctions / enforcement actions raising perceived supply disruption probability",
"Broad multi-source reinforcement across geopolitics + supply-chain lanes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply-side offset signals (output/exports increase narratives and/or rerouting/bypass capability) can cap upside and increase downside whipsaw risk within 24h.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply increase / export surge narratives",
"Operational adaptation narratives (bypass/reroute) reducing worst-case disruption pricing",
"Event-driven headline decay after peak burst"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CRUDE-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 5,
"C": 0,
"D": 41,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate tier mix inferred from admitted trend/risk bundles; not de-duplicated across overlapping record sets."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 8,
"stale_24_72h_signals": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 0,
"note": "Counts represent admitted signal objects by published timestamp vs snapshot time."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_decay_after_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional pressure peaked earlier in the window and has been fading into the snapshot, raising whipsaw risk."
},
{
"flag": "counterevidence_supply_increase",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Some supply-offset narratives present (e.g., output/exports surge / bypass capability) reduce one-way conviction."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Geopolitical disruption catalysts can flip quickly; maintain elevated reversal vigilance."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Despite some Tier-A/official anchors, much of the amplification mass is lower-tier; treat marginal updates cautiously."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh 0\u20136h confirmation of disruption/escalation narratives without matching fresh supply-offset counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh signals indicating de-escalation, restored flows, or material supply increase within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence + mixed signals persists (contradiction ratio stays elevated or rises)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Late-breaking high-trust opposing signal emerges (<=2h) that materially reduces net bullish pressure."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"Several non-crude-specific VIP outliers and some macro/regulatory trends were not force-mapped to crude_oil.",
"Prior state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table); state_change left as unchanged."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}