Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-UR-HEADLINE_VOL
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-01 Near-term uranium price bias remains upward as reactor/data-centre power build narratives and supply-security themes stay dominant. 66 up accelerating 24h false 46
uranium B-UR-02 Intraday volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines can quickly flip risk premia and near-term price direction. 62 mixed stable 6h false 46
uranium B-UR-03 Policy backlash / cost-and-subsidy narratives can cap upside and create pullback risk over the next 6–24 hours if they gain traction. 40 down stable 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260421T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-01",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium price bias remains upward as reactor/data-centre power build narratives and supply-security themes stay dominant in the freshest news flow.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-02",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Intraday volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines can quickly flip risk premia and near-term price direction.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "nuclear_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-03",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy backlash / cost-and-subsidy narratives can cap upside and create pullback risk over the next 6\u201324 hours if they gain traction.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "regulatory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-01",
 "B-UR-02",
 "B-UR-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 6,
 "B": 18,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 140,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_gt72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-HEADLINE_VOL",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "medium",
 "label": "headline_volatility_geopolitical_and_negotiations",
 "why": "Fresh, high-frequency geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation items can reprice risk premia quickly despite an overall bullish mass."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_TIER_SKEW",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "medium",
 "label": "low_authority_share_high",
 "why": "Directional mass is broad but source mix is skewed to lower tiers; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-UR_POLICY_BACKLASH",
 "market": "uranium",
 "level": "medium",
 "label": "policy_cost_backlash_tail_risk",
 "why": "Cost/subsidy critiques can strengthen and temporarily suppress the bullish impulse if they become the dominant frame."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence remains demand/supply-security dominated without a contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines cluster within <= 6h and contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.40."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20,+20) while fresh bearish-pressure scores rise for >= 2 consecutive buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Late-breaking opposing signals (<=2h) appear in 2+ independent records and reduce net directional mass materially (kill-switch criteria)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": -4,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
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 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -16,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 8,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 33,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 87,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 81,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 32,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior.",
 "Trend/vip/risk items were mapped to uranium via reactor-demand/supply-security linkage; at least one mining-regulation anomaly was treated as non-load-bearing due to ambiguous commodity linkage.",
 "source_tier_counts are approximate aggregates and not de-duplicated across overlapping evidence bundles."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}