Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium (U3O8) futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-UR-HEADLINE_VOL
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-01 | Near-term uranium price bias remains upward as reactor/data-centre power build narratives and supply-security themes stay dominant. | 66 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 |
| uranium | B-UR-02 | Intraday volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines can quickly flip risk premia and near-term price direction. | 62 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 46 |
| uranium | B-UR-03 | Policy backlash / cost-and-subsidy narratives can cap upside and create pullback risk over the next 6–24 hours if they gain traction. | 40 | down | stable | 24h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260421T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium (U3O8) futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-01",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term uranium price bias remains upward as reactor/data-centre power build narratives and supply-security themes stay dominant in the freshest news flow.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-02",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Intraday volatility risk is elevated: geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines can quickly flip risk premia and near-term price direction.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_supply_risk",
"nuclear_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-03",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy backlash / cost-and-subsidy narratives can cap upside and create pullback risk over the next 6\u201324 hours if they gain traction.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"regulatory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-01",
"B-UR-02",
"B-UR-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 6,
"B": 18,
"C": 12,
"D": 140,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"fresh_24_72h": 2,
"stale_gt72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-HEADLINE_VOL",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "medium",
"label": "headline_volatility_geopolitical_and_negotiations",
"why": "Fresh, high-frequency geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation items can reprice risk premia quickly despite an overall bullish mass."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_TIER_SKEW",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "medium",
"label": "low_authority_share_high",
"why": "Directional mass is broad but source mix is skewed to lower tiers; authority confirmation is present but not dominant."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-UR_POLICY_BACKLASH",
"market": "uranium",
"level": "medium",
"label": "policy_cost_backlash_tail_risk",
"why": "Cost/subsidy critiques can strengthen and temporarily suppress the bullish impulse if they become the dominant frame."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score stays >= +20 and fresh evidence remains demand/supply-security dominated without a contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Geopolitical/nuclear-negotiation headlines cluster within <= 6h and contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.40."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20,+20) while fresh bearish-pressure scores rise for >= 2 consecutive buckets."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Late-breaking opposing signals (<=2h) appear in 2+ independent records and reduce net directional mass materially (kill-switch criteria)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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"velocity_score": -4,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 8,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 33,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 87,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 81,
"fragility_score_0_100": 32,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior.",
"Trend/vip/risk items were mapped to uranium via reactor-demand/supply-security linkage; at least one mining-regulation anomaly was treated as non-load-bearing due to ambiguous commodity linkage.",
"source_tier_counts are approximate aggregates and not de-duplicated across overlapping evidence bundles."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}