Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_crossstrand
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-01 | Near-term uranium futures sentiment skews downside as geopolitics/regulatory headlines dominate and keep risk premia and uncertainty elevated, limiting clear bullish follow-through. | 58 | down | accelerating | 6h | false | 66 |
| uranium | B-UR-02 | Over the next 24 hours, uranium sentiment remains mixed because structural pro-nuclear demand signals persist but are partially offset by fast-moving geopolitical/policy noise. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| uranium | B-UR-03 | Volatility risk is elevated: the signal balance is sensitive to fresh headline sequencing rather than a single dominant fundamental update. | 67 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260421T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-01", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium futures sentiment skews downside as geopolitics/regulatory headlines dominate and keep risk premia and uncertainty elevated, limiting clear bullish follow-through.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical negotiation/tension cluster (Iran-related headlines) with high recency participation", "Policy/regulatory uncertainty themes recurring across multiple high-heat trend strands", "Late-surge negative signal participation in the most recent cycle" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Nuclear expansion / nuclear-as-long-term baseload narratives (demand-side support)", "Regulatory reform / reactor-design review items (pro-nuclear policy support)" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-02", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium sentiment remains mixed because structural pro-nuclear demand signals persist but are partially offset by fast-moving geopolitical/policy noise.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Broad nuclear-power expansion narrative and energy-security framing (persistent background support)", "Supply-chain/geopolitical risk headlines creating two-way interpretation and narrative whipsaw risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "If geopolitical risk headlines soften quickly, bearish pressure may fade", "If additional high-authority pro-demand/pro-supply-tightness confirmation arrives, bearish framing may weaken" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-03", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the signal balance is sensitive to fresh headline sequencing rather than a single dominant fundamental update.", "probability_pct": 67, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "High headline churn with both pro-nuclear and geopolitical-risk strands active", "Meaningful cross-strand contradiction without explicit resolution" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bearish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-01", "B-UR-02", "B-UR-03" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 4, "B": 3, "C": 2, "D": 21, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 6, "fresh_6_24h": 14, "stale_24_72h": 10, "stale_gt_72h": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "uranium", "flag": "contradiction_crossstrand", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Coexisting pro-nuclear expansion signals and geopolitics/policy-risk strands create two-way narrative pressure." }, { "market": "uranium", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Direction is being driven by headline sequencing (fast-changing) rather than a single resolved fundamental datapoint." }, { "market": "uranium", "flag": "low_tier_amplification_overhang", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of supporting evidence is from lower-tier domains; authority confirmation is present but not dominant." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "watch_short_bias", "trigger_condition": "Bearish pressure persists if the next 6\u201312h adds fresh negative policy/geopolitics headlines without equally fresh pro-nuclear/demand confirmation." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal-watch-high if 2+ independent high-quality pro-nuclear/demand or supply-tightness confirmations appear within a 2h window." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while contradiction remains elevated and fresh evidence continues to arrive in both directions." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -22, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 61, "net_sentiment_score": -22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { 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"velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.49, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -33, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 67, "net_sentiment_score": -33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.49, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -32, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 66, "net_sentiment_score": -32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -28, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 64, "net_sentiment_score": -28, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.51, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bearish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -26, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 63, "net_sentiment_score": -26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.48, "fresh_evidence_count": 7, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bearish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 45, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 19, "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state not provided (trend_state_memory absent); state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.", "Cross-trend contradiction inferred from mixed positive/negative trend sentiment estimates; explicit contradiction_record_ids were empty in supplied inputs." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }