Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY_VOL (narrative_whipsaw_risk, severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Geopolitical disruption risk is being priced as an upside shock to global gas/LNG availability, increasing near-term upward pressure on natural gas futures. 62 up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 European energy-security and coordinated procurement narratives increase the probability of incremental LNG bid/competition, supporting gas pricing over the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260421-natural_gas-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Geopolitical disruption risk is being priced as an upside shock to global gas/LNG availability, increasing near-term upward pressure on natural gas futures.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "European energy-security and coordinated procurement narratives increase the probability of incremental LNG bid/competition, supporting gas pricing over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "storage_levels",
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 7,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 158,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_evidence_estimate": 85,
 "stale_evidence_estimate": 12,
 "stale_context_overhang": "low"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_VOL",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "detail": "Direction is supported by fast-moving geopolitics/energy-security headlines; headline-driven sentiment can reverse quickly without producing explicit counter-evidence in the feed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-AUTHORITY_GAP",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "authority_confirmation_gap",
 "detail": "Directional mass is broad, but high-tier/official confirmation density is moderate relative to total volume (large Tier-D share)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-CROSS_ENERGY_MAPPING",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "cross_energy_spillover_risk",
 "detail": "A portion of admitted evidence is cross-energy (oil-shipping/geopolitical) spillover rather than directly Henry Hub/storage/weather-specific."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration persists without meaningful counterevidence and contradiction stays low."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If another high-velocity geopolitical update lands (especially maritime chokepoint / sanctions / procurement policy headlines)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent records within 2 hours indicate de-escalation / restored shipping / softened procurement urgency, or if contradiction ratio spikes materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows data sparsity (fresh evidence drops below threshold) and momentum decays to stable/weakening."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 10,
 "trends_admitted": 3,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: natural_gas.",
 "Most corpus volume is geopolitical/energy-security; direct US weather/storage-specific drivers are not prominent in the admitted set.",
 "No explicit counter-direction evidence present; reversal risk is driven by event-driven headline volatility rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}