Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-RECENCY_VOL (narrative_whipsaw_risk, severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical disruption risk is being priced as an upside shock to global gas/LNG availability, increasing near-term upward pressure on natural gas futures. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | European energy-security and coordinated procurement narratives increase the probability of incremental LNG bid/competition, supporting gas pricing over the next 6–24 hours. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260421-natural_gas-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical disruption risk is being priced as an upside shock to global gas/LNG availability, increasing near-term upward pressure on natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "European energy-security and coordinated procurement narratives increase the probability of incremental LNG bid/competition, supporting gas pricing over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"storage_levels",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 7,
"B": 3,
"C": 0,
"D": 158,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_evidence_estimate": 85,
"stale_evidence_estimate": 12,
"stale_context_overhang": "low"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_VOL",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"detail": "Direction is supported by fast-moving geopolitics/energy-security headlines; headline-driven sentiment can reverse quickly without producing explicit counter-evidence in the feed."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-AUTHORITY_GAP",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"label": "authority_confirmation_gap",
"detail": "Directional mass is broad, but high-tier/official confirmation density is moderate relative to total volume (large Tier-D share)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-CROSS_ENERGY_MAPPING",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "cross_energy_spillover_risk",
"detail": "A portion of admitted evidence is cross-energy (oil-shipping/geopolitical) spillover rather than directly Henry Hub/storage/weather-specific."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration persists without meaningful counterevidence and contradiction stays low."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If another high-velocity geopolitical update lands (especially maritime chokepoint / sanctions / procurement policy headlines)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent records within 2 hours indicate de-escalation / restored shipping / softened procurement urgency, or if contradiction ratio spikes materially."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows data sparsity (fresh evidence drops below threshold) and momentum decays to stable/weakening."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 10,
"trends_admitted": 3,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly: natural_gas.",
"Most corpus volume is geopolitical/energy-security; direct US weather/storage-specific drivers are not prominent in the admitted set.",
"No explicit counter-direction evidence present; reversal risk is driven by event-driven headline volatility rather than observed counterevidence.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}