Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-ARENA-GAP
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical disruption risk around key maritime chokepoints and enforcement actions is adding a risk premium that can lift global gas/LNG pricing and (second-order) US natural gas futures sentiment. | 62 | up | fading | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Incremental LNG export flow optimism (incl. single-source reports of export/plant developments) is a modest supportive tailwind for US natural gas demand expectations. | 55 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Because the admitted evidence is dominated by geopolitics (with limited direct weather/storage/production-outage signals), the natural gas directional thesis is prone to fast fade if escalation does not broaden or if market focus stays oil-centric. | 60 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_natural_gas_2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical disruption risk around key maritime chokepoints and enforcement actions is adding a risk premium that can lift global gas/LNG pricing and (second-order) US natural gas futures sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Incremental LNG export flow optimism (incl. single-source reports of export/plant developments) is a modest supportive tailwind for US natural gas demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Because the admitted evidence is dominated by geopolitics (with limited direct weather/storage/production-outage signals), the natural gas directional thesis is prone to fast fade if escalation does not broaden or if market focus stays oil-centric.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_key_arenas",
"narrative_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 7,
"B": 2,
"C": 0,
"D": 44,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_items_est": 9,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_items_est": 6,
"stale_gt_24h_evidence_items_est": 0,
"note": "Estimated from trend/risk temporal profiles and newest timestamps in admitted bundles; per-record bucket attribution not available in gated input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-ARENA-GAP",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Key natural-gas-specific drivers (weather, storage, production outages) are not strongly represented in the admitted signal set; direction is dominated by geopolitics."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-WHIPSAW",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical risk-premium narratives can reverse quickly without explicit counterevidence (fade risk / headline-driven whipsaw)."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-INDIRECT-TRANSMISSION",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Some signals are global-energy/oil-centric; transmission into US natural gas futures may be indirect (via LNG linkage), increasing fragility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-LOW-AUTHORITY-SHARE",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Authority confirmation exists but a large share of coverage is lower-tier; conviction is therefore capped despite broad directional mass."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh confirmation in the next 6h window that disruption risk is impacting LNG flows/pricing (or additional multi-source escalation signals) without material counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A clear de-escalation / reopening / enforcement stand-down narrative with broad fresh sourcing that reduces energy risk premium."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Further fast-turn geopolitical headlines (blockade/seizure/closure) continue clustering inside a few hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 20,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted set heavily concentrated in energy_geopolitics with limited explicit storage/weather/production-outage drivers; conviction capped accordingly.",
"No explicit contradictory evidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to whipsaw/fragility rather than counterevidence mass.",
"Prior state unavailable; state_change classified as new_bullish against an assumed neutral unknown_prior baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}