Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: low_authority_mix
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Lithium hydroxide pricing is experiencing upward pressure (premiums rising), supporting a near-term bullish bias in lithium-linked pricing. 68 up accelerating 6h false 55
lithium B-LI-02 Supply-chain tightening signals (offtake agreements and project friction/local opposition) are being interpreted as supportive of lithium pricing in the next 24h window. 62 up stable 24h false 55
lithium B-LI-03 Incremental refining/extraction capability headlines (refining capacity build-outs and direct lithium extraction narratives) are a counterweight that could cap upside and raise pullback risk if confirmed/expanded. 48 down fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260421T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium hydroxide pricing is experiencing upward pressure (premiums rising), supporting a near-term bullish bias in lithium-linked pricing.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Rising lithium hydroxide premiums (battery materials)",
 "Broad cross-source repetition within the last ~24h"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-chain tightening signals (offtake agreements and project friction/local opposition) are being interpreted as supportive of lithium pricing in the next 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Cathode offtake agreements and supply-chain security themes",
 "Project opposition / delays that can slow incremental supply availability"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-03",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Incremental refining/extraction capability headlines (refining capacity build-outs and direct lithium extraction narratives) are a counterweight that could cap upside and raise pullback risk if confirmed/expanded.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Refining capacity expansion narratives",
 "Direct lithium extraction (DLE) scaling narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-02",
 "B-LI-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 4,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 18,
 "D": 225,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 22,
 "fresh_6_24h": 183,
 "stale_24_72h": 47,
 "stale_over_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "low_authority_mix",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Directional mass is broad, but the authority-tier mix skews heavily to lower tiers; conviction is therefore more fragile than it would be with stronger Tier-A corroboration."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "counterweight_supply_expansion",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Supply-side expansion narratives (refining capacity / DLE) act as genuine counterweight evidence that can cap upside and elevate reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "cross_domain_mapping_risk",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Some evidence is proxy-based (EV/battery ecosystem signals mapped into lithium price expectations), which can reduce precision versus direct market/price reporting."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next-cycle corpus continues to show rising hydroxide premiums and additional multi-source confirmation without a contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If supply-disruption / project-friction stories accelerate alongside supply-expansion stories (refining/DLE), increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source evidence emerges that premiums are easing or that near-term supply is arriving faster than expected."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence volume drops below threshold or becomes dominated by stale repetition (>72h) without fresh confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 59,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 11,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 12,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects were supplied in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven mainly by genuine counterweight narratives (supply expansion vs premium/tightness signals), not by direct opposing price headlines.",
 "Authority confirmation remains low relative to directional mass; conviction remains high per mass-consensus policy, but fragility is elevated."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}