Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: low_authority_mix
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-01 | Lithium hydroxide pricing is experiencing upward pressure (premiums rising), supporting a near-term bullish bias in lithium-linked pricing. | 68 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-02 | Supply-chain tightening signals (offtake agreements and project friction/local opposition) are being interpreted as supportive of lithium pricing in the next 24h window. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-LI-03 | Incremental refining/extraction capability headlines (refining capacity build-outs and direct lithium extraction narratives) are a counterweight that could cap upside and raise pullback risk if confirmed/expanded. | 48 | down | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260421T230000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium hydroxide pricing is experiencing upward pressure (premiums rising), supporting a near-term bullish bias in lithium-linked pricing.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Rising lithium hydroxide premiums (battery materials)",
"Broad cross-source repetition within the last ~24h"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-chain tightening signals (offtake agreements and project friction/local opposition) are being interpreted as supportive of lithium pricing in the next 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Cathode offtake agreements and supply-chain security themes",
"Project opposition / delays that can slow incremental supply availability"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Incremental refining/extraction capability headlines (refining capacity build-outs and direct lithium extraction narratives) are a counterweight that could cap upside and raise pullback risk if confirmed/expanded.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Refining capacity expansion narratives",
"Direct lithium extraction (DLE) scaling narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-02",
"B-LI-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 4,
"B": 5,
"C": 18,
"D": 225,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 22,
"fresh_6_24h": 183,
"stale_24_72h": 47,
"stale_over_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "low_authority_mix",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Directional mass is broad, but the authority-tier mix skews heavily to lower tiers; conviction is therefore more fragile than it would be with stronger Tier-A corroboration."
},
{
"flag_id": "counterweight_supply_expansion",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Supply-side expansion narratives (refining capacity / DLE) act as genuine counterweight evidence that can cap upside and elevate reversal risk."
},
{
"flag_id": "cross_domain_mapping_risk",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Some evidence is proxy-based (EV/battery ecosystem signals mapped into lithium price expectations), which can reduce precision versus direct market/price reporting."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If the next-cycle corpus continues to show rising hydroxide premiums and additional multi-source confirmation without a contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If supply-disruption / project-friction stories accelerate alongside supply-expansion stories (refining/DLE), increasing narrative whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) multi-source evidence emerges that premiums are easing or that near-term supply is arriving faster than expected."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence volume drops below threshold or becomes dominated by stale repetition (>72h) without fresh confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T13:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T14:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T15:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T16:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T17:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -7,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 11,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects were supplied in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven mainly by genuine counterweight narratives (supply expansion vs premium/tightness signals), not by direct opposing price headlines.",
"Authority confirmation remains low relative to directional mass; conviction remains high per mass-consensus policy, but fragility is elevated."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}