Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-geo-001 Geopolitical-risk headlines are net-supportive for a defensive bid in gold over the next 24h, but the currently admitted corpus is mostly stale. 56 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-rates-001 Real-rates / policy narrative remains a key swing driver for gold, but directional bias cannot be asserted from the admitted set due to staleness and sparse fresh macro confirmation. 50 mixed stable 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-geo-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Geopolitical-risk headlines are net-supportive for a defensive bid in gold over the next 24h, but the currently admitted corpus is mostly stale.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "risk_off_positioning"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "stale_evidence_dominance",
 "insufficient_fresh_confirmation"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-rates-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Real-rates / policy narrative remains a key swing driver for gold, but directional bias cannot be asserted from the admitted set due to staleness and sparse fresh macro confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 50,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "central_bank_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "data_sparsity_last_24h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-geo-001",
 "B-gold-rates-001"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 60,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 165,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 1,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 13
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "gold",
 "description": "Most admitted supportive context (geopolitical-risk cluster / policy narrative) is >72h old; conviction capped and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "gold",
 "description": "Fresh evidence inside the last 24h is below the min_evidence_threshold; direction held at neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "gold",
 "description": "High fragility: a small number of fresh updates could rapidly flip the gold narrative (risk-on/risk-off)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_flip_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "gold",
 "description": "A single fresh seed-level risk anomaly appeared, but without corroboration; treat as an unstable early hint."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance until >=3 independent fresh (<=24h) signals directly mapping to gold drivers (real_rates/usd_strength/geopolitical_risk/flows) raise conviction >=55 with low contradiction."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if >=2 independent fresh (<=6h) geopolitical escalation records appear or if contradiction ratio rises materially versus current near-zero baseline."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh risk-off evidence broadens (>=3 sources) and shows accelerating velocity within 6\u201324h buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh risk-on / higher-real-rates cluster emerges (>=2 independent sources <=6h) that offsets the risk-off bid, treat as potential reversal setup."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
 "No v2 per-signal trend_physics fields provided in the gated input; used conservative legacy approximations (freshness/recency dominance + evidence metadata).",
 "Admitted corpus is dominated by March 2026 geopolitics/policy context; treated as background-only with strong downweighting (>72h window).",
 "Fresh item inside 24h is seed-level (not fully materialised evidence); treated as low-weight hint and did not change directional_state."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}