Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-gold-geo-001 |
Geopolitical-risk headlines are net-supportive for a defensive bid in gold over the next 24h, but the currently admitted corpus is mostly stale. |
56 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-gold-rates-001 |
Real-rates / policy narrative remains a key swing driver for gold, but directional bias cannot be asserted from the admitted set due to staleness and sparse fresh macro confirmation. |
50 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-geo-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk headlines are net-supportive for a defensive bid in gold over the next 24h, but the currently admitted corpus is mostly stale.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"risk_off_positioning"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"stale_evidence_dominance",
"insufficient_fresh_confirmation"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-rates-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Real-rates / policy narrative remains a key swing driver for gold, but directional bias cannot be asserted from the admitted set due to staleness and sparse fresh macro confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 50,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"central_bank_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"data_sparsity_last_24h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 51,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 53,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-geo-001",
"B-gold-rates-001"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 60,
"B": 4,
"C": 2,
"D": 165,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 0,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 1,
"fresh_24_72h_signals": 0,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 13
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"description": "Most admitted supportive context (geopolitical-risk cluster / policy narrative) is >72h old; conviction capped and momentum marked weakening."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"market": "gold",
"description": "Fresh evidence inside the last 24h is below the min_evidence_threshold; direction held at neutral_mixed."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "gold",
"description": "High fragility: a small number of fresh updates could rapidly flip the gold narrative (risk-on/risk-off)."
},
{
"flag": "recency_flip_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "gold",
"description": "A single fresh seed-level risk anomaly appeared, but without corroboration; treat as an unstable early hint."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance until >=3 independent fresh (<=24h) signals directly mapping to gold drivers (real_rates/usd_strength/geopolitical_risk/flows) raise conviction >=55 with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if >=2 independent fresh (<=6h) geopolitical escalation records appear or if contradiction ratio rises materially versus current near-zero baseline."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh risk-off evidence broadens (>=3 sources) and shows accelerating velocity within 6\u201324h buckets."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh risk-on / higher-real-rates cluster emerges (>=2 independent sources <=6h) that offsets the risk-off bid, treat as potential reversal setup."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
"No v2 per-signal trend_physics fields provided in the gated input; used conservative legacy approximations (freshness/recency dominance + evidence metadata).",
"Admitted corpus is dominated by March 2026 geopolitics/policy context; treated as background-only with strong downweighting (>72h window).",
"Fresh item inside 24h is seed-level (not fully materialised evidence); treated as low-weight hint and did not change directional_state."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}