Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
- generated_at: 2026-04-21T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Supply/cost disruption (logistics, labour, climate/disease) remains supportive of higher coffee futures over next 24h. |
60 |
up |
fading |
24h |
true |
78 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Fresh harvest-volume/retail-price-cut signals introduce near-term downside/mean-reversion pressure that can neutralise prior bullish bias within 6h. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
true |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Broad supply/cost disruption narrative (logistics friction, labour tightness, climate/disease risk) remains net supportive of higher coffee futures over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"labour_costs",
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Very fresh harvest-volume/retail-price-cut signalling introduces near-term downside/mean-reversion pressure that can neutralise prior bullish bias within the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"consumption_trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 51,
"B": 10,
"C": 7,
"D": 168,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_signals": 3,
"fresh_24_72h_signals": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_signals": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh opposing supply/price-softening signal (2-source) arrived within ~2h window; conviction capped pending corroboration."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Short-horizon signals flipped from supply-risk-bullish to harvest-volume-bearish; contradiction ratio elevated in the freshest bucket."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A large share of supporting narratives are >72h old; fresh confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_microstructure",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signals are largely thematic/supply-chain; limited direct price-formation evidence for the last 6h."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent bearish supply/harvest confirmations arrive within the next 2-6h (or contradiction ratio stays >0.6), keep bias suppressed."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains negative or falls below -20 for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Until the late-breaking harvest-volume signal is either corroborated by higher-tier sources or fails to repeat over the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If the harvest-volume signal fades (no repeats for 6h) and fresh supply-risk confirmations appear (weather/logistics) within the next 24h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory headlines continue (mixed supply vs demand narratives), expect elevated churn vs a clean trend."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 9,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 9,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 9,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 10,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -26,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 9,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 18,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 26,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 7,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid inventing a baseline.",
"Late-breaking opposing micro-signal detected in the last ~2h window; thesis_kill_switch engaged and conviction capped."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}