Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
  • generated_at: 2026-04-21T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Supply/cost disruption (logistics, labour, climate/disease) remains supportive of higher coffee futures over next 24h. 60 up fading 24h true 78
coffee B-coffee-002 Fresh harvest-volume/retail-price-cut signals introduce near-term downside/mean-reversion pressure that can neutralise prior bullish bias within 6h. 55 mixed accelerating 6h true 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Broad supply/cost disruption narrative (logistics friction, labour tightness, climate/disease risk) remains net supportive of higher coffee futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "labour_costs",
 "origin_supply",
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Very fresh harvest-volume/retail-price-cut signalling introduces near-term downside/mean-reversion pressure that can neutralise prior bullish bias within the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 69,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 51,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 168,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals": 3,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_signals": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fresh opposing supply/price-softening signal (2-source) arrived within ~2h window; conviction capped pending corroboration."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Short-horizon signals flipped from supply-risk-bullish to harvest-volume-bearish; contradiction ratio elevated in the freshest bucket."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A large share of supporting narratives are >72h old; fresh confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_microstructure",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Signals are largely thematic/supply-chain; limited direct price-formation evidence for the last 6h."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent bearish supply/harvest confirmations arrive within the next 2-6h (or contradiction ratio stays >0.6), keep bias suppressed."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains negative or falls below -20 for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Until the late-breaking harvest-volume signal is either corroborated by higher-tier sources or fails to repeat over the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If the harvest-volume signal fades (no repeats for 6h) and fresh supply-risk confirmations appear (weather/logistics) within the next 24h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory headlines continue (mixed supply vs demand narratives), expect elevated churn vs a clean trend."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 9,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 9,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 9,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 10,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -26,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.66,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 9,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 18,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 26,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 7,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid inventing a baseline.",
 "Late-breaking opposing micro-signal detected in the last ~2h window; thesis_kill_switch engaged and conviction capped."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}